First National Bank Arena · at Arkansas St · Conference game
Closing line
ARST -11.5✓ TXST covered by 10.5
ARST -11.5✓ TXST covered by 10.5Closing total156.5Over by 8.5
 TXST | This season | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| 7-8 | Record | 9-5 |
| 5-10 | ATS | 10-4 |
| 9-6 | O/U | 7-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TXST 72–84 ARST · ✓ ARST (84%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 37 | 45 | 82 |
| ARST | 43 | 40 | 83 |
1st half: TXST 37, ARST 43 (ARST by 6). The model had ARST by 6.6 and a total of 73.0 (actual 80).
Team stats
| TXST | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-61 52% | Field goals | 26-64 41% |
| 2-11 18% | 3-pointers | 6-24 25% |
| 16-19 84% | Free throws | 25-32 78% |
| 32 8 off | Rebounds | 43 19 off |
| 11 | Assists | 16 |
| 11 | Steals | 11 |
| 0 | Blocks | 1 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 17 |
| 24 | Fouls | 21 |
| 46 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| TXST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Hall F | 36 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 7-12 | 0-0 |
| Kyndall Davis G | 30 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 4-10 | 0-4 |
| Kaden Gumbs G | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Tay Knox C | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Mark Drone G | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Bolden G | 31 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Franck Emmou G | 26 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 4-9 | 0-3 |
| Makai Willis C | 18 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Jaelyn Lee G | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Robert Fields C | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Deke Thompson, Dimp Pernell, Ky Pernell, Isaiah Barganier, Cameron Simpson
| ARST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hampton G | 28 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 5-8 | 0-2 |
| Chandler Jackson G | 26 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 3-8 | 1-3 |
| Matt Hayman G | 26 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 6-14 | 2-6 |
| Christian Harmon G | 23 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| Chudi Dioramma F | 20 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Joey Chammaa G | 18 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Jaxon Ellingsworth F | 18 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| T.J. Caldwell G | 14 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1-8 | 1-3 |
| Royal Blue Smith G | 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Aly Tounkara F | 8 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Fredy-Salam Sylla G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Rho Omed, Tim Matthews, Weston Honeycutt, CJ Geathers, Grayson Bennett
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketARST -11.5
ModelARST -11.2
Model edgeTXST +0.3
W TXST covered
Total
Market156.5
Model156.0
Model edgeUnder 0.5
L Over
Projected score
TXST 72.4 · ARST 83.6
TXST 82 · ARST 83
Win probability
ARST 84%
1st half
Spread
ARST -6.6
ARST -6.0
Total
73.0
80 points
Projected score
TXST 33.2 · ARST 39.8
TXST 37 · ARST 43
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARST -11.5
no move
CloseARST -11.5
No change since the open
Total
Open155.5
▲ 1
Close156.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
TXST +550 · ARST -800
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARST -11.5 · unchangedmodel ARST -11
model ARST -11
Opened 155.5 · closed 156.5 · moved 1 upmodel 156
model 156
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 4-6 40% | 1-9 10% | 7-3 70% |
| ARST | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
TXST 3–6 ARSTARST leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · ARST has won the last 5 meetings · TXST 3-6 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025-26 | ARST 89 @ TXST 70 | TXST +4.5 | ARST W |
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | ARST 85 @ TXST 74 | TXST +5.5 | ARST W |
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | TXST 65 @ ARST 80 | ARST -10.5 | ARST W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | ARST 79 @ TXST 72 | TXST +1.5 | ARST W |
| Jan 11, 2023-24 | TXST 82 @ ARST 85 | ARST -5.5 | TXST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Texas St
15 games played
Straight up
7-8
47% wins
Against the spread
5-10
33% covers · avg −3.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-6
60% overs · avg +3.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BGSU | L 48-83 | +5.5 | L −29.5 | 146.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 8 | @ TULN | L 71-79 | +12.5 | W +4.5 | 146.5 | O 150 |
| Nov 12 | vs UTSA | W 80-69 | -2.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 15 | vs TXSO | W 77-67 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 144.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 18 | vs ACU | W 63-49 | -1.5 | W +12.5 | 138.5 | U 112 |
| Nov 21 | vs LR | W 65-56 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 131.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs SEA | L 52-66 | +7.5 | L −6.5 | 136.5 | U 118 |
| Nov 29 | vs LEH | L 74-78 | -6.5 | L −10.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 3 | @ RICE | L 72-77 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 133.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs SOU | W 86-83 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 142.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 17 | vsARST | L 70-89 | +4.5 | L −14.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 20 | vs USA | W 67-65 | -3.5 | L −1.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 31 | @ TROY | L 80-100 | +8.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ ULM | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 8 | @ USM | L 70-80 | +2.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | O 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−29.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+4.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+8.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
+5.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
+12.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
+3.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−6.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
−10.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
−1.5
10
vsSOU
SOUW 86-83
−0.5
17
vsARST
ARSTL 70-89
−14.5
20
vsUSA
USAW 67-65
−1.5
31
@TROY
TROYL 80-100
−11.5
3
@ULM
ULMW 84-79
−5.5
8
@USM
USML 70-80
−7.5
covered 5didn’t cover 10avg −3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BGSU
BGSUL 48-83
−15.5
8
@TULN
TULNL 71-79
+3.5
12
vsUTSA
UTSAW 80-69
+1.5
15
vsTXSO
TXSOW 77-67
−0.5
18
vsACU
ACUW 63-49
−26.5
21
vsLR
LRW 65-56
−10.5
28
vsSEA
SEAL 52-66
−18.5
29
vsLEH
LEHL 74-78
+16.5
3
@RICE
RICEL 72-77
+15.5
10
vsSOU
SOUW 86-83
+26.5
17
vsARST
ARSTL 70-89
+7.5
20
vsUSA
USAW 67-65
−4.5
31
@TROY
TROYL 80-100
+34.5
3
@ULM
ULMW 84-79
+12.5
8
@USM
USML 70-80
+5.5
over 9under 6avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Arkansas St
14 games played
Straight up
9-5
64% wins
Against the spread
10-4
71% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-7
50% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ OHIO | W 89-85 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 159.5 | O 174 |
| Nov 7 | @ SFA | L 65-90 | -1.5 | L −26.5 | 155.5 | U 155 |
| Nov 11 | @ MOST | W 86-85 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 152.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 19 | @ SMC | L 72-85 | +20.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 21 | @ SMU | L 69-100 | +14.5 | L −16.5 | 172.5 | U 169 |
| Nov 24 | vs JXST | W 74-63 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 155.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 28 | vs NDSU | W 85-80 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 160.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTA | W 83-63 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 6 | @LR | W 90-78 | -9.5 | W +2.5 | 147.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 13 | @RICE | L 76-77 | -2.5 | L −3.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Dec 17 | @TXST | W 89-70 | -4.5 | W +14.5 | 151.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 20 | @USM | W 93-86 | -1.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vs JMU | L 74-78 | -10.5 | L −14.5 | 158.5 | U 152 |
| Jan 7 | vsTROY | W 86-74 | -4.5 | W +7.5 | 160.5 | U 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+7.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−26.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+2.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−16.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
+6.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+1.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
+14.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+2.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−3.5
17
@TXST
TXSTW 89-70
+14.5
20
@USM
USMW 93-86
+5.5
3
vsJMU
JMUL 74-78
−14.5
7
vsTROY
TROYW 86-74
+7.5
covered 10didn’t cover 4avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@OHIO
OHIOW 89-85
+14.5
7
@SFA
SFAL 65-90
−0.5
11
@MOST
MOSTW 86-85
+18.5
19
@SMC
SMCL 72-85
+7.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 69-100
−3.5
24
vsJXST
JXSTW 74-63
−18.5
28
vsNDSU
NDSUW 85-80
+4.5
2
vsUTA
UTAW 83-63
−5.5
6
@LR
LRW 90-78
+20.5
13
@RICE
RICEL 76-77
−2.5
17
@TXST
TXSTW 89-70
+7.5
20
@USM
USMW 93-86
+23.5
3
vsJMU
JMUL 74-78
−6.5
7
vsTROY
TROYW 86-74
−0.5
over 7under 7avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Texas St
7-8 overall · 2-3 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Southern Miss70–80
- W@ UL Monroe84–79
- L@ Troy80–100
- Wvs South Alabama67–65
- Lvs Arkansas St70–89
2 days since their last game.
Arkansas St
9-5 overall · 3-1 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Troy86–74
- Lvs James Madison74–78
- W@ Southern Miss93–86
- W@ Texas St89–70
- L@ Rice76–77
3 days since their last game.