Food City Center · at Tennessee · Conference game
Closing line
TENN -12.5✓ TENN covered by 1.5
TENN -12.5✓ TENN covered by 1.5Closing total153.5Over by 2.5
 TEX | This season | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | Record | 10-4 |
| 7-6 | ATS | 5-9 |
| 8-5 | O/U | 8-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TEX 74–82 TENN · ✓ TENN (75%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 33 | 38 | 71 |
| TENN | 48 | 37 | 85 |
1st half: TEX 33, TENN 48 (TENN by 15). The model had TENN by 4.5 and a total of 73.0 (actual 81).
Team stats
| TEX | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-57 39% | Field goals | 29-55 53% |
| 11-29 38% | 3-pointers | 6-15 40% |
| 16-20 80% | Free throws | 21-29 72% |
| 31 15 off | Rebounds | 37 15 off |
| 14 | Assists | 14 |
| 8 | Steals | 12 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 21 | Fouls | 23 |
| 18 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 24 |
Players
| TEX | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camden Heide F | 35 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 5-10 | 4-9 |
| Tramon Mark G | 30 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 7-13 | 3-6 |
| Dailyn Swain G | 23 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Jordan Pope G | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Matas Vokietaitis C | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Simeon Wilcher G | 27 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3-12 | 2-8 |
| Chendall Weaver G | 24 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Nic Codie F | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Lassina Traore F | 14 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Declan Duru Jr. F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Anthon McDermott G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Brandon Taylor, John Clark, Cole Bott, Lewis Obiorah
| TENN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Kobi Gillespie G | 38 | 34 | 4 | 5 | 12-18 | 5-8 |
| DeWayne Brown II F | 25 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Bishop Boswell G | 23 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Nate Ament F | 22 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Felix Okpara F | 16 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Amari Evans G | 23 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Jaylen Carey F | 20 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| J.P. Estrella F | 18 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
| Troy Henderson G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Amaree Abram G | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Cade Phillips, Clarence Massamba, Gavin Paull, Campbell Duncan, Grant Hurst, Ethan Burg
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketTENN -12.5
ModelTENN -7.8
Model edgeTEX +4.7
L TENN covered
Total
Market153.5
Model155.8
Model edgeOver 2.3
W Over
Projected score
TEX 74 · TENN 81.8
TEX 71 · TENN 85
Win probability
TENN 75%
1st half
Spread
TENN -4.5
TENN -15.0
Total
73.0
81 points
Projected score
TEX 34.2 · TENN 38.7
TEX 33 · TENN 48
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTENN -10.5
2 → TENN
CloseTENN -12.5
2 pts toward TENN
Total
Open152.5
▲ 1
Close153.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
TEX +525 · TENN -750
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TENN -10.5 · closed TENN -12.5 · moved 2 toward TENNmodel TENN -8
model TENN -8
Opened 152.5 · closed 153.5 · moved 1 upmodel 156
model 156
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
| TENN | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
TEX 1–4 TENNTENN leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · TENN has won the last 4 meetings · TEX 2-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024-25 | TEX 72 vs TENN 83 | TENN -9.5 | TENN W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | TENN 74 @ TEX 70 | TEX +4.5 | TEX W |
| Mar 23, 2023-24 | TEX 58 vs TENN 62 | TENN -7 | TEX W |
| Jan 28, 2022-23 | TEX 71 @ TENN 82 | TENN -5.5 | TENN W |
| Jan 29, 2021-22 | TENN 51 @ TEX 52 | TEX -4 | TENN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Texas
13 games played
Straight up
8-5
62% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-5
62% overs · avg +6.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs DUKE | L 60-75 | +10.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 8 | vs LAF | W 97-60 | -25.5 | W +11.5 | 153.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 12 | vs FDU | W 93-58 | -31.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs KC | W 71-55 | -31.5 | L −15.5 | 159.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 18 | vs RID | W 99-65 | -30.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 24 | vs ASU | L 86-87 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 153.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 26 | vs NCSU | W 102-97 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 199 |
| Dec 3 | vs UVA | L 69-88 | -3.5 | L −22.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 8 | vs SOU | W 95-69 | -22.5 | W +3.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 12 | @ CONN | L 63-71 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vs LEM | W 95-53 | -29.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 22 | vs UMES | W 94-71 | -33.5 | L −10.5 | 138.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 3 | vs MSST | L 98-101 | -9.5 | L −12.5 | 157.5 | O 199 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-75
−4.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 97-60
+11.5
12
vsFDU
FDUW 93-58
+3.5
15
vsKC
KCW 71-55
−15.5
18
vsRID
RIDW 99-65
+3.5
24
vsASU
ASUL 86-87
−7.5
26
vsNCSU
NCSUW 102-97
+6.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 69-88
−22.5
8
vsSOU
SOUW 95-69
+3.5
12
@CONN
CONNL 63-71
+3.5
16
vsLEM
LEMW 95-53
+12.5
22
vsUMES
UMESW 94-71
−10.5
3
vsMSST
MSSTL 98-101
−12.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsDUKE
DUKEL 60-75
−18.5
8
vsLAF
LAFW 97-60
+3.5
12
vsFDU
FDUW 93-58
−7.5
15
vsKC
KCW 71-55
−33.5
18
vsRID
RIDW 99-65
+20.5
24
vsASU
ASUL 86-87
+19.5
26
vsNCSU
NCSUW 102-97
+37.5
3
vsUVA
UVAL 69-88
+2.5
8
vsSOU
SOUW 95-69
+5.5
12
@CONN
CONNL 63-71
−11.5
16
vsLEM
LEMW 95-53
−4.5
22
vsUMES
UMESW 94-71
+26.5
3
vsMSST
MSSTL 98-101
+41.5
over 8under 5avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Tennessee
14 games played
Straight up
10-4
71% wins
Against the spread
5-9
36% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-6
57% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs MER | W 76-61 | -28.5 | L −13.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs NKU | W 95-56 | -27.5 | W +11.5 | 137.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 12 | vs UNF | W 99-66 | -41.5 | L −8.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 17 | vs RICE | W 91-66 | -26.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 20 | vs TNST | W 89-60 | -31.5 | L −2.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 24 | vs RUTG | W 85-60 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 141.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 25 | vs HOU | W 76-73 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs KU | L 76-81 | -7.5 | L −12.5 | 140.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 2 | @ SYR | L 60-62 | -7.5 | L −9.5 | 147.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs ILL | L 62-75 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 16 | vs LOU | W 83-62 | -4.5 | W +16.5 | 156.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 21 | vs GWEB | W 94-52 | -42.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 146 |
| Dec 30 | vs SCST | W 105-54 | -44.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Jan 3 | @ ARK | L 75-86 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 158.5 | O 161 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−13.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+11.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
−8.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
−1.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−2.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+10.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+5.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
−12.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−9.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−14.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
+16.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−0.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+6.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
−12.5
covered 5didn’t cover 9avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsMER
MERW 76-61
−6.5
8
vsNKU
NKUW 95-56
+13.5
12
vsUNF
UNFW 99-66
+9.5
17
vsRICE
RICEW 91-66
+13.5
20
vsTNST
TNSTW 89-60
−8.5
24
vsRUTG
RUTGW 85-60
+3.5
25
vsHOU
HOUW 76-73
+12.5
26
vsKU
KUL 76-81
+16.5
2
@SYR
SYRL 60-62
−25.5
6
vsILL
ILLL 62-75
−12.5
16
vsLOU
LOUW 83-62
−11.5
21
vsGWEB
GWEBW 94-52
−6.5
30
vsSCST
SCSTW 105-54
+11.5
3
@ARK
ARKL 75-86
+2.5
over 8under 6avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Texas
8-5 overall · 0-1 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Mississippi St98–101
- Wvs MD Eastern94–71
- Wvs Le Moyne95–53
- L@ UConn63–71
- Wvs Southern95–69
3 days since their last game.
Tennessee
10-4 overall · 0-1 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Arkansas75–86
- Wvs SC State105–54
- Wvs Gardner-Webb94–52
- Wvs Louisville83–62
- Lvs Illinois62–75
3 days since their last game.