Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ETStegeman Coliseum · at Georgia · Conference game

#21AUBAuburn100final

Final

#34UGAGeorgia AP #23104▲ winner

Closing lineUGA -6.5✓ AUB covered by 2.5

Closing total173.5Over by 30.5

Season records: Auburn and Georgia
AUB	This season	UGA
9-4	Record	12-1
8-5	ATS	6-7
9-4	O/U	8-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: AUB 86–89 UGA · ✓ UGA (63%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
AUB	42	50	8	100
UGA	47	45	12	104

1st half: AUB 42, UGA 47 (UGA by 5). The model had UGA by 2.2 and a total of 81.9 (actual 89).

Team stats

AUB		UGA
34-75 45%	Field goals	34-65 52%
8-30 27%	3-pointers	11-29 38%
24-36 67%	Free throws	25-35 71%
50 23 off	Rebounds	35 10 off
15	Assists	11
6	Steals	4
5	Blocks	9
13	Turnovers	11
26	Fouls	24
44	Points in paint	40
19	Fast-break points	20

Players

AUB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Sebastian Williams-Adams F	42	0	7	2	0-4	0-0
Kevin Overton G	39	19	7	2	7-15	2-7
Keyshawn Hall F	38	20	7	4	5-13	1-4
KeShawn Murphy F	22	12	7	0	4-7	0-3
Kaden Magwood G	7	0	0	2	0-2	0-1
Bench
Tahaad Pettiford G	32	25	3	4	10-21	3-11
Elyjah Freeman G	23	14	5	1	5-9	2-4
Filip Jovic C	22	10	10	0	3-4	0-0

Did not play: Drake Cardwell, Bradley Pearson, Jeremiah Bowman, Emeka Opurum, Abdul Bashir, CJ Williams, Joah Shay, Simon Walker, Reed Trapp, Blake Muschalek

UGA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Blue Cain G	36	15	4	2	5-10	0-3
Jeremiah Wilkinson G	36	31	6	2	9-21	4-10
Somto Cyril C	31	15	6	1	6-6	0-0
Kanon Catchings F	27	2	3	3	1-5	0-4
Jordan Ross G	14	12	3	3	5-7	2-3
Bench
Marcus Millender G	33	24	1	0	7-10	5-7
Dylan James F	16	2	0	0	0-1	0-1
Jake Wilkins F	9	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Kareem Stagg F	9	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Justin Bailey G	8	0	1	0	0-2	0-1
Justin Abson F	6	1	2	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Brandon Klatsky, Jaden Newell, Markel Jennings, Jackson McVey

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UGA -6.5	UGA -3.9	AUB +2.6	W AUB covered
Total	173.5	174.9	Over 1.4	W Over
Projected score	—	AUB 85.5 · UGA 89.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UGA -2.2	UGA -5.0
1H total	81.9	89
1H projected score	AUB 39.8 · UGA 42	AUB 42 · UGA 47

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB WLLLW	8-5	62%	0-1	2-3
UGA WWLLL	6-7	46%	4-5	5-6

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB UOOUU	9-4	69%	9-4
UGA OUOOU	8-5	62%	12-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
UGA	9-1 90%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

AUB 7–1 UGAAUB leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · AUB has won the last 5 meetings · AUB 3-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2024-25	UGA 70 @ AUB 82	AUB -14.5	UGA W
Jan 18, 2024-25	AUB 70 @ UGA 68	UGA +5.5	UGA W
Mar 9, 2023-24	UGA 78 @ AUB 92	AUB -15.5	UGA W
Feb 24, 2023-24	AUB 97 @ UGA 76	UGA +6.5	AUB W
Feb 1, 2022-23	UGA 73 @ AUB 94	AUB -11.5	AUB W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Auburn

13 games played

Straight up

9-4

69% wins

Against the spread

8-5

62% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-4

69% overs · avg +6 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-469%

W W W L W W L W W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

8-562%

L W W W W W L W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-469%

O O O O O O O U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBCU	W 95-90	-24.5	L −19.5	153.5	O 185
Nov 6	vsMRMK	W 95-57	-23.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 152
Nov 11	vsWOF	W 93-62	-27.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 16	vsHOU	L 72-73	+7.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 19	vsJKST	W 112-66	-30.5	W +15.5	156.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsORE	W 84-73	-4.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 157
Nov 25	vsMICH	L 72-102	+4.5	L −25.5	163.5	O 174
Nov 26	vsSJU	W 85-74	+4.5	W +15.5	166.5	U 159
Dec 3	vsNCSU	W 83-73	-5.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 156
Dec 6	@ARIZ	L 68-97	+11.5	L −17.5	162.5	O 165
Dec 13	vsUTC	W 92-78	-19.5	L −5.5	150.5	O 170
Dec 20	vsPUR	L 60-88	+7.5	L −20.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 29	vsQUC	W 106-65	-25.5	W +15.5	171.5	U 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

−19.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+14.5

WOF

W 93-62

+3.5

HOU

L 72-73

+6.5

JKST

W 112-66

+15.5

ORE

W 84-73

+6.5

MICH

L 72-102

−25.5

SJU

W 85-74

+15.5

NCSU

W 83-73

+4.5

ARIZ

L 68-97

−17.5

UTC

W 92-78

−5.5

PUR

L 60-88

−20.5

QUC

W 106-65

+15.5

covered 8didn’t cover 5avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BCU

W 95-90

+31.5

MRMK

W 95-57

+3.5

WOF

W 93-62

+2.5

HOU

L 72-73

+4.5

JKST

W 112-66

+21.5

ORE

W 84-73

+1.5

MICH

L 72-102

+10.5

SJU

W 85-74

−7.5

NCSU

W 83-73

−6.5

ARIZ

L 68-97

+2.5

UTC

W 92-78

+19.5

PUR

L 60-88

−4.5

QUC

W 106-65

−0.5

over 9under 4avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgia

13 games played

Straight up

12-1

92% wins

Against the spread

6-7

46% covers · avg +4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-5

62% overs · avg +9.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-192%

W W W W W W L W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-746%

W W W L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-562%

O U O O U U O O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBELL	W 104-59	-23.5	W +21.5	150.5	O 163
Nov 5	vsUMES	W 94-29	-33.5	W +31.5	142.5	U 123
Nov 9	vsMORE	W 120-81	-28.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 201
Nov 14	vsGT	W 92-87	-15.5	L −10.5	155.5	O 179
Nov 17	vsFAMU	W 87-57	-40.5	L −10.5	170.5	U 144
Nov 21	vsXAV	W 78-77	-10.5	L −9.5	165.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsCLEM	L 94-97	+1.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 191
Nov 29	vsTNTC	W 123-81	-34.5	W +7.5	160.5	O 204
Dec 2	@FSU	W 107-73	+1.5	W +35.5	176.5	O 180
Dec 13	vsCIN	W 84-65	-5.5	W +13.5	157.5	U 149
Dec 18	vsWCU	W 112-82	-32.5	L −2.5	167.5	O 194
Dec 22	vsWGA	W 103-74	-36.5	L −7.5	173.5	O 177
Dec 29	vsLIU	W 89-74	-30.5	L −15.5	179.5	U 163

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BELL

W 104-59

+21.5

UMES

W 94-29

+31.5

W 120-81

+10.5

W 92-87

−10.5

FAMU

W 87-57

−10.5

XAV

W 78-77

−9.5

CLEM

L 94-97

−1.5

TNTC

W 123-81

+7.5

FSU

W 107-73

+35.5

CIN

W 84-65

+13.5

WCU

W 112-82

−2.5

WGA

W 103-74

−7.5

LIU

W 89-74

−15.5

covered 6didn’t cover 7avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BELL

W 104-59

+12.5

UMES

W 94-29

−19.5

W 120-81

+50.5

W 92-87

+23.5

FAMU

W 87-57

−26.5

XAV

W 78-77

−10.5

CLEM

L 94-97

+38.5

TNTC

W 123-81

+43.5

FSU

W 107-73

+3.5

CIN

W 84-65

−8.5

WCU

W 112-82

+26.5

WGA

W 103-74

+3.5

LIU

W 89-74

−16.5

over 8under 5avg +9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Auburn @ Georgia

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Auburn

Georgia

Auburn

Georgia