Baptist Health Arena · at E Kentucky · Conference game
Closing line
CARK -1.5✓ EKU covered by 5.5
CARK -1.5✓ EKU covered by 5.5Closing total156.5Under by 2.5
| CARK | This season | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| 5-9 | Record | 3-11 |
| 7-7 | ATS | 5-9 |
| 7-7 | O/U | 8-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CARK 77–79 EKU · ✓ EKU (56%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARK | 37 | 32 | 6 | 75 |
| EKU | 40 | 29 | 10 | 79 |
1st half: CARK 37, EKU 40 (EKU by 3). The model had EKU by 1.0 and a total of 73.3 (actual 77).
Team stats
| CARK | EKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-63 43% | Field goals | 28-64 44% |
| 10-33 30% | 3-pointers | 19-45 42% |
| 11-15 73% | Free throws | 4-7 57% |
| 38 12 off | Rebounds | 35 10 off |
| 16 | Assists | 18 |
| 9 | Steals | 7 |
| 0 | Blocks | 3 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 18 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| CARK | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camren Hunter G | 39 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 10-19 | 3-8 |
| Luke Moore G | 39 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 6-10 | 3-6 |
| Malchiah Marable F | 32 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Ty Robinson G | 29 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 4-12 | 0-4 |
| Javion Guy-King G | 15 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cole McCormick G | 28 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Tyler Lee G | 15 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Truman Byrne F | 13 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Harry Beauchamp G | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Parker Applegate G | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Ethan Thomas, Rashad Bolden, Rylie Marshall, Chris Mason, R.J. Newton, J.C. Shulman, Owen Dehrmann
| EKU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turner Buttry G | 32 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3-10 | 3-9 |
| Juan Cranford Jr. G | 32 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 6-15 | 6-13 |
| Jackson Holt G | 27 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Yvens Paul F | 24 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Montavious Myrick F | 23 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Austin Ball F | 28 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 6-13 | 5-10 |
| Jalen Cooper F | 24 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Asa White C | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| MJ Williams G | 12 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Jayden Harris F | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Amarr Knox, Mason Miles, Rydge Beverly, Trey Coles, Tyler Jackson
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCARK -1.5
ModelEKU -1.8
Model edgeEKU +3.3
W EKU covered
Total
Market156.5
Model156.6
Model edgeOver 0.1
L Under
Projected score
CARK 77.4 · EKU 79.2
CARK 75 · EKU 79
Win probability
EKU 56%
1st half
Spread
EKU -1.0
EKU -3.0
Total
73.3
77 points
Projected score
CARK 36.2 · EKU 37.1
CARK 37 · EKU 40
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenEKU -1.5
3 → CARK
CloseCARK -1.5
3 pts toward CARK
Total
Open156.5
no move
Close156.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
CARK -115 · EKU -105
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened EKU -1.5 · closed CARK -1.5 · moved 3 toward CARKmodel EKU -2
model EKU -2
Opened 156.5 · unchangedmodel 156.5 matches the line
model 156.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CARK | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| EKU | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
CARK 2–5 EKUEKU leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · EKU has won the last 5 meetings · CARK 5-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2024-25 | EKU 89 @ CARK 83 | CARK +6.5 | CARK W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | CARK 82 @ EKU 95 | EKU -13.5 | CARK W |
| Jan 11, 2023-24 | EKU 86 @ CARK 63 | CARK +6.5 | EKU W |
| Feb 16, 2022-23 | CARK 58 @ EKU 74 | EKU -13.5 | EKU W |
| Jan 5, 2022-23 | EKU 77 @ CARK 75 | CARK +3.5 | CARK W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
C Arkansas
14 games played
Straight up
5-9
36% wins
Against the spread
7-7
50% covers · avg +6.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-7
50% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ UNC | L 54-94 | +31.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ ARK | L 56-93 | +35.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 16 | vs SAM | L 77-84 | +6.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 20 | @ UNT | L 56-74 | +16.5 | L −1.5 | 134.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 23 | vs EWU | W 92-65 | +4.5 | W +31.5 | 154.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 25 | vs EIU | W 81-60 | -5.5 | W +15.5 | 139.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 29 | @ ETSU | L 57-80 | +12.5 | L −10.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 3 | vs LR | W 85-47 | -3.5 | W +34.5 | 138.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 7 | @ ETAM | L 68-75 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 13 | @ VAN | L 72-83 | +36.5 | W +25.5 | 158.5 | U 155 |
| Dec 21 | @ SMU | L 82-99 | +24.5 | W +7.5 | 156.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 1 | vs FGCU | W 85-83 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 156.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 3 | vs STET | W 93-73 | -11.5 | W +8.5 | 147.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 8 | @ BELL | L 78-84 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@UNC
UNCL 54-94
−8.5
11
@ARK
ARKL 56-93
−1.5
16
vsSAM
SAML 77-84
−0.5
20
@UNT
UNTL 56-74
−1.5
23
vsEWU
EWUW 92-65
+31.5
25
vsEIU
EIUW 81-60
+15.5
29
@ETSU
ETSUL 57-80
−10.5
3
vsLR
LRW 85-47
+34.5
7
@ETAM
ETAML 68-75
−4.5
13
@VAN
VANL 72-83
+25.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 82-99
+7.5
1
vsFGCU
FGCUW 85-83
+4.5
3
vsSTET
STETW 93-73
+8.5
8
@BELL
BELLL 78-84
−8.5
covered 7didn’t cover 7avg +6.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@UNC
UNCL 54-94
−9.5
11
@ARK
ARKL 56-93
−9.5
16
vsSAM
SAML 77-84
+9.5
20
@UNT
UNTL 56-74
−4.5
23
vsEWU
EWUW 92-65
+2.5
25
vsEIU
EIUW 81-60
+1.5
29
@ETSU
ETSUL 57-80
−7.5
3
vsLR
LRW 85-47
−6.5
7
@ETAM
ETAML 68-75
−2.5
13
@VAN
VANL 72-83
−3.5
21
@SMU
SMUL 82-99
+24.5
1
vsFGCU
FGCUW 85-83
+11.5
3
vsSTET
STETW 93-73
+18.5
8
@BELL
BELLL 78-84
+7.5
over 7under 7avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
E Kentucky
14 games played
Straight up
3-11
21% wins
Against the spread
5-9
36% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-6
57% overs · avg +0.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 | vs WKU | L 79-87 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 12 | @VAN | L 62-92 | +28.5 | L −1.5 | 168.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 18 | @ KENT | L 78-93 | +10.5 | L −4.5 | 161.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 22 | vs MER | L 83-95 | -4.5 | L −16.5 | 163.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 24 | @ NKU | L 71-82 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 29 | vs WOF | L 77-83 | +1.5 | L −4.5 | 153.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 3 | @ ILST | L 78-89 | +12.5 | W +1.5 | 154.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 10 | @EIU | W 68-59 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
| Dec 13 | vs M-OH | L 69-79 | +5.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 17 | @ JXST | W 62-59 | +2.5 | W +5.5 | 142.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 21 | @ WICH | L 57-88 | +14.5 | L −16.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 1 | @ QUC | L 89-91 | +4.5 | W +2.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 3 | @ WGA | L 76-88 | -1.5 | L −13.5 | 156.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 8 | vs UNA | W 88-80 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 168 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
10
vsWKU
WKUL 79-87
−6.5
12
@VAN
VANL 62-92
−1.5
18
@KENT
KENTL 78-93
−4.5
22
vsMER
MERL 83-95
−16.5
24
@NKU
NKUL 71-82
−6.5
29
vsWOF
WOFL 77-83
−4.5
3
@ILST
ILSTL 78-89
+1.5
10
@EIU
EIUW 68-59
+2.5
13
vsM-OH
M-OHL 69-79
−4.5
17
@JXST
JXSTW 62-59
+5.5
21
@WICH
WICHL 57-88
−16.5
1
@QUC
QUCL 89-91
+2.5
3
@WGA
WGAL 76-88
−13.5
8
vsUNA
UNAW 88-80
+2.5
covered 5didn’t cover 9avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
10
vsWKU
WKUL 79-87
+3.5
12
@VAN
VANL 62-92
−14.5
18
@KENT
KENTL 78-93
+9.5
22
vsMER
MERL 83-95
+14.5
24
@NKU
NKUL 71-82
−3.5
29
vsWOF
WOFL 77-83
+6.5
3
@ILST
ILSTL 78-89
+12.5
10
@EIU
EIUW 68-59
−22.5
13
vsM-OH
M-OHL 69-79
−10.5
17
@JXST
JXSTW 62-59
−21.5
21
@WICH
WICHL 57-88
−3.5
1
@QUC
QUCL 89-91
+15.5
3
@WGA
WGAL 76-88
+7.5
8
vsUNA
UNAW 88-80
+19.5
over 8under 6avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
C Arkansas
5-9 overall · 2-1 in conference · United Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Bellarmine78–84
- Wvs Stetson93–73
- Wvs FGCU85–83
- L@ SMU82–99
- L@ Vanderbilt72–83
2 days since their last game.
E Kentucky
3-11 overall · 1-2 in conference · United Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs North Alabama88–80
- L@ West Georgia76–88
- L@ Queens University Royals89–91
- L@ Wichita St57–88
- W@ Jax State62–59
2 days since their last game.