Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum · at Sam Houston · Conference game
Closing line
SHSU -3.5✓ SHSU covered by 4.5
SHSU -3.5✓ SHSU covered by 4.5Closing total151.5Under by 3.5
 MTSU | This season | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| 9-13 | Record | 14-8 |
| 9-13 | ATS | 17-5 |
| 11-11 | O/U | 13-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: MTSU 75–79 SHSU · ✓ SHSU (63%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | 32 | 38 | 70 |
| SHSU | 44 | 34 | 78 |
1st half: MTSU 32, SHSU 44 (SHSU by 12). The model had SHSU by 2.2 and a total of 72.3 (actual 76).
Team stats
| MTSU | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-65 43% | Field goals | 29-68 43% |
| 6-25 24% | 3-pointers | 6-18 33% |
| 8-15 53% | Free throws | 14-15 93% |
| 31 8 off | Rebounds | 45 15 off |
| 17 | Assists | 20 |
| 7 | Steals | 4 |
| 6 | Blocks | 5 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| MTSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torey Alston F | 34 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 7-12 | 0-0 |
| Alec Oglesby G | 29 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4-9 | 2-7 |
| Kamari Lands G | 27 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-9 | 0-5 |
| Sean Smith G | 27 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 5-13 | 1-5 |
| Chris Loofe F | 25 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 6-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jahvin Carter G | 32 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 4-11 | 3-5 |
| Luka Jovanovic C | 16 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Tre Green G | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| James Dent Jr. G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jarred Hall, Marcus Whitlock Jr., Charvez Ambrose, Jax Howard, Brandon Oloumou, Savon Wykle
| SHSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Po'Boigh King G | 35 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 3-12 | 1-4 |
| Jacob Walker G | 32 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 5-10 | 2-4 |
| Damon Nicholas Jr. G | 31 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Veljko Ilic F | 22 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 7-18 | 0-0 |
| Kashie Natt G | 22 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jacobe Coleman G | 28 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 4-10 | 0-3 |
| Matt Dann F | 16 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| CJ Beaumont G | 14 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
Did not play: Jaxson Ford, Jackson Rogers, Cheikh Sadibou Ndiaye, Noah Benny, Nathan Nguyen, Isaiah Manning, Justin Begg
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSHSU -3.5
ModelSHSU -3.9
Model edgeSHSU +0.4
W SHSU covered
Total
Market151.5
Model154.5
Model edgeOver 3.0
L Under
Projected score
MTSU 75.3 · SHSU 79.2
MTSU 70 · SHSU 78
Win probability
SHSU 63%
1st half
Spread
SHSU -2.2
SHSU -12.0
Total
72.3
76 points
Projected score
MTSU 35 · SHSU 37.2
MTSU 32 · SHSU 44
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSHSU -5.5
2 → MTSU
CloseSHSU -3.5
2 pts toward MTSU
Total
Open152.5
▼ 1
Close151.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
MTSU +154 · SHSU -185
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SHSU -5.5 · closed SHSU -3.5 · moved 2 toward MTSUmodel SHSU -4
model SHSU -4
Opened 152.5 · closed 151.5 · moved 1 downmodel 154.5
model 154.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTSU | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
| SHSU | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
MTSU 3–2 SHSUMTSU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · MTSU has won the last 3 meetings · MTSU 1-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2025-26 | SHSU 67 @ MTSU 68 | MTSU -4.5 | SHSU W |
| Feb 22, 2024-25 | SHSU 70 @ MTSU 74 | MTSU -4.5 | SHSU W |
| Jan 23, 2024-25 | MTSU 77 @ SHSU 75 | SHSU +1.5 | MTSU W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | MTSU 64 @ SHSU 81 | SHSU -8.5 | SHSU W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | SHSU 60 @ MTSU 51 | MTSU +1.5 | SHSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
MTSU
22 games played
Straight up
9-13
41% wins
Against the spread
9-13
41% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-11
50% overs · avg +2.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | @ EVAN | W 77-72 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 140.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 19 | @ MICH | L 61-86 | +27.5 | W +2.5 | 159.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 23 | vs MUR | W 90-87 | +6.5 | W +9.5 | 161.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 24 | vs GW | L 79-92 | +9.5 | L −3.5 | 158.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | vs MCN | L 62-72 | +9.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 1 | vs UAB | W 76-61 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 7 | vs BEL | L 62-83 | +3.5 | L −17.5 | 153.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 17 | vs KENN | W 68-67 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 160.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 29 | @ HOU | L 60-69 | +25.5 | W +16.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
| Jan 2 | vs LT | W 88-51 | -6.5 | W +30.5 | 134.5 | O 139 |
| Jan 4 | vsSHSU | W 68-67 | -4.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 8 | @ UTEP | L 80-83 | -3.5 | L −6.5 | 137.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 10 | @ NMSU | W 59-55 | +3.5 | W +7.5 | 144.5 | U 114 |
| Jan 14 | @LT | L 58-59 | -3.5 | L −4.5 | 131.5 | U 117 |
| Jan 17 | vs MOST | W 90-87 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 137.5 | O 177 |
| Jan 23 | @ JXST | L 58-75 | -1.5 | L −18.5 | 133.5 | U 133 |
| Jan 29 | vs LIB | L 65-81 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 136.5 | O 146 |
| Jan 31 | vs WKU | L 60-65 | -6.5 | L −11.5 | 140.5 | U 125 |
| Feb 4 | vs FIU | L 84-88 | -5.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 172 |
| Feb 7 | @ DEL | L 88-89 | -5.5 | L −6.5 | 133.5 | O 177 |
| Feb 12 | @KENN | W 90-87 | +3.5 | W +6.5 | 148.5 | O 177 |
| Feb 14 | @WKU | L 80-82 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
12
@EVAN
EVANW 77-72
+7.5
19
@MICH
MICHL 61-86
+2.5
23
vsMUR
MURW 90-87
+9.5
24
vsGW
GWL 79-92
−3.5
25
vsMCN
MCNL 62-72
−0.5
1
vsUAB
UABW 76-61
+16.5
7
vsBEL
BELL 62-83
−17.5
17
vsKENN
KENNW 68-67
−2.5
29
@HOU
HOUL 60-69
+16.5
2
vsLT
LTW 88-51
+30.5
4
vsSHSU
SHSUW 68-67
−3.5
8
@UTEP
UTEPL 80-83
−6.5
10
@NMSU
NMSUW 59-55
+7.5
14
@LT
LTL 58-59
−4.5
17
vsMOST
MOSTW 90-87
−2.5
23
@JXST
JXSTL 58-75
−18.5
29
vsLIB
LIBL 65-81
−14.5
31
vsWKU
WKUL 60-65
−11.5
4
vsFIU
FIUL 84-88
−9.5
7
@DEL
DELL 88-89
−6.5
12
@KENN
KENNW 90-87
+6.5
14
@WKU
WKUL 80-82
+1.5
covered 9didn’t cover 13avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
12
@EVAN
EVANW 77-72
+8.5
19
@MICH
MICHL 61-86
−12.5
23
vsMUR
MURW 90-87
+15.5
24
vsGW
GWL 79-92
+12.5
25
vsMCN
MCNL 62-72
−13.5
1
vsUAB
UABW 76-61
−16.5
7
vsBEL
BELL 62-83
−8.5
17
vsKENN
KENNW 68-67
−25.5
29
@HOU
HOUL 60-69
−9.5
2
vsLT
LTW 88-51
+4.5
4
vsSHSU
SHSUW 68-67
−21.5
8
@UTEP
UTEPL 80-83
+25.5
10
@NMSU
NMSUW 59-55
−30.5
14
@LT
LTL 58-59
−14.5
17
vsMOST
MOSTW 90-87
+39.5
23
@JXST
JXSTL 58-75
−0.5
29
vsLIB
LIBL 65-81
+9.5
31
vsWKU
WKUL 60-65
−15.5
4
vsFIU
FIUL 84-88
+17.5
7
@DEL
DELL 88-89
+43.5
12
@KENN
KENNW 90-87
+28.5
14
@WKU
WKUL 80-82
+16.5
over 11under 11avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Sam Houston
22 games played
Straight up
14-8
64% wins
Against the spread
17-5
77% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
13-9
59% overs · avg +1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | @ TTU | L 77-98 | +31.5 | W +10.5 | 156.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 15 | @ UTAH | L 79-85 | +12.5 | W +6.5 | 159.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 19 | vs WYO | W 78-70 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 156.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs IDST | W 84-81 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 142.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 28 | vs IDHO | W 94-68 | +1.5 | W +27.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 2 | @ OKST | L 83-93 | +13.5 | W +3.5 | 169.5 | O 176 |
| Dec 6 | @ TXSO | W 82-70 | -7.5 | W +4.5 | 158.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 17 | @ ORST | W 85-75 | +3.5 | W +13.5 | 153.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 21 | @NMSU | L 78-87 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 153.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 2 | @WKU | L 91-102 | +5.5 | L −5.5 | 168.5 | O 193 |
| Jan 4 | @MTSU | L 67-68 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 156.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 8 | vsDEL | W 72-60 | -11.5 | W +0.5 | 144.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 10 | vsLIB | L 74-82 | +1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | O 156 |
| Jan 14 | @JXST | W 77-62 | +1.5 | W +16.5 | 150.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 17 | @FIU | W 76-63 | +2.5 | W +15.5 | 168.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 21 | vsKENN | W 93-87 | -5.5 | W +0.5 | 167.5 | O 180 |
| Jan 24 | vsWKU | W 73-58 | -5.5 | W +9.5 | 156.5 | U 131 |
| Jan 28 | @MOST | W 80-71 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 148.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 31 | vsLT | W 83-67 | -7.5 | W +8.5 | 141.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 4 | vsUTEP | W 70-66 | -10.5 | L −6.5 | 145.5 | U 136 |
| Feb 7 | @LT | L 78-87 | -3.5 | L −12.5 | 143.5 | O 165 |
| Feb 14 | @KENN | W 83-79 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | U 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
@TTU
TTUL 77-98
+10.5
15
@UTAH
UTAHL 79-85
+6.5
19
vsWYO
WYOW 78-70
+6.5
26
vsIDST
IDSTW 84-81
+1.5
28
vsIDHO
IDHOW 94-68
+27.5
2
@OKST
OKSTL 83-93
+3.5
6
@TXSO
TXSOW 82-70
+4.5
17
@ORST
ORSTW 85-75
+13.5
21
@NMSU
NMSUL 78-87
−3.5
2
@WKU
WKUL 91-102
−5.5
4
@MTSU
MTSUL 67-68
+3.5
8
vsDEL
DELW 72-60
+0.5
10
vsLIB
LIBL 74-82
−6.5
14
@JXST
JXSTW 77-62
+16.5
17
@FIU
FIUW 76-63
+15.5
21
vsKENN
KENNW 93-87
+0.5
24
vsWKU
WKUW 73-58
+9.5
28
@MOST
MOSTW 80-71
+10.5
31
vsLT
LTW 83-67
+8.5
4
vsUTEP
UTEPW 70-66
−6.5
7
@LT
LTL 78-87
−12.5
14
@KENN
KENNW 83-79
+5.5
covered 17didn’t cover 5avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
@TTU
TTUL 77-98
+18.5
15
@UTAH
UTAHL 79-85
+4.5
19
vsWYO
WYOW 78-70
−8.5
26
vsIDST
IDSTW 84-81
+22.5
28
vsIDHO
IDHOW 94-68
+7.5
2
@OKST
OKSTL 83-93
+6.5
6
@TXSO
TXSOW 82-70
−6.5
17
@ORST
ORSTW 85-75
+6.5
21
@NMSU
NMSUL 78-87
+11.5
2
@WKU
WKUL 91-102
+24.5
4
@MTSU
MTSUL 67-68
−21.5
8
vsDEL
DELW 72-60
−12.5
10
vsLIB
LIBL 74-82
+1.5
14
@JXST
JXSTW 77-62
−11.5
17
@FIU
FIUW 76-63
−29.5
21
vsKENN
KENNW 93-87
+12.5
24
vsWKU
WKUW 73-58
−25.5
28
@MOST
MOSTW 80-71
+2.5
31
vsLT
LTW 83-67
+8.5
4
vsUTEP
UTEPW 70-66
−9.5
7
@LT
LTL 78-87
+21.5
14
@KENN
KENNW 83-79
−0.5
over 13under 9avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
MTSU
9-13 overall · 6-8 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Western KY80–82
- W@ Kennesaw St90–87
- L@ Delaware88–89
- Lvs FIU84–88
- Lvs Western KY60–65
4 days since their last game.
Sam Houston
14-8 overall · 9-5 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Kennesaw St83–79
- L@ Louisiana Tech78–87
- Wvs UTEP70–66
- Wvs Louisiana Tech83–67
- W@ Missouri St80–71
4 days since their last game.