Liberty Arena (VA) · at Liberty · Conference game
Closing line
LIB -8.5✓ NMSU covered by 6.5
LIB -8.5✓ NMSU covered by 6.5Closing total145.5Under by 1.5
 NMSU | This season | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | Record | 10-3 |
| 6-6 | ATS | 7-6 |
| 8-4 | O/U | 7-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NMSU 69–74 LIB · ✓ LIB (69%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 29 | 42 | 71 |
| LIB | 46 | 27 | 73 |
1st half: NMSU 29, LIB 46 (LIB by 17). The model had LIB by 3.2 and a total of 67.1 (actual 75).
Team stats
| NMSU | LIB | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-61 48% | Field goals | 26-48 54% |
| 11-25 44% | 3-pointers | 7-15 47% |
| 2-4 50% | Free throws | 14-18 78% |
| 32 11 off | Rebounds | 27 5 off |
| 13 | Assists | 16 |
| 3 | Steals | 3 |
| 4 | Blocks | 0 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 38 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| NMSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wrzeszcz G | 36 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 6-10 | 4-8 |
| Jemel Jones G | 33 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 5-15 | 3-6 |
| Julius Mims F | 33 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| Jae'Coby Osborne F | 30 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 5-7 | 0-1 |
| Elijah Elliott G | 22 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 5-9 | 2-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Chris Terrell G | 22 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Jayland Randall G | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Kyrese Mullen F | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Gabe Pickens G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Augustine Ekwe, Teysean Eaglestaff, Cyr Malonga, Christian Villegas, Omarr Smith, Amarco Doyle
| LIB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Decker Jr. G | 36 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 7-12 | 2-5 |
| Zach Cleveland F | 35 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Kaden Metheny G | 34 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3-9 | 1-4 |
| JJ Harper G | 34 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 6-7 | 2-3 |
| Colin Porter G | 27 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Josh Smith F | 26 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 5-8 | 1-1 |
| Zander Carter G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Jones Jr. F | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: JC Shirer Jr., Isaiah Ihnen, Zander Yates, TJ Drain, Drew Grimes, Torr Sorensen, Brady Kester
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketLIB -8.5
ModelLIB -5.6
Model edgeNMSU +2.9
W NMSU covered
Total
Market145.5
Model143.2
Model edgeUnder 2.3
W Under
Projected score
NMSU 68.8 · LIB 74.4
NMSU 71 · LIB 73
Win probability
LIB 69%
1st half
Spread
LIB -3.2
LIB -17.0
Total
67.1
75 points
Projected score
NMSU 31.9 · LIB 35.2
NMSU 29 · LIB 46
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLIB -8.5
no move
CloseLIB -8.5
No change since the open
Total
Open142.5
▲ 3
Close145.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
NMSU +350 · LIB -455
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LIB -8.5 · unchangedmodel LIB -5.5
model LIB -5.5
Opened 142.5 · closed 145.5 · moved 3 upmodel 143
model 143
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| LIB | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
NMSU 1–3 LIBLIB leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · LIB has won the last 3 meetings · NMSU 1-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2024-25 | LIB 64 @ NMSU 54 | NMSU +2.5 | LIB W |
| Jan 18, 2024-25 | NMSU 60 @ LIB 68 | LIB -6.5 | LIB W |
| Feb 29, 2023-24 | NMSU 58 @ LIB 83 | LIB -14.5 | LIB W |
| Feb 1, 2023-24 | LIB 73 @ NMSU 79 | NMSU +5 | NMSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
New Mexico St
12 games played
Straight up
6-6
50% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-4
67% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15 | vs UNM | W 76-68 | +3.5 | W +11.5 | 139.5 | O 144 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAM | W 81-72 | -8.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCI | W 57-45 | +2.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | U 102 |
| Nov 26 | vs GAST | W 77-58 | -12.5 | W +6.5 | 136.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | vs USA | L 75-77 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 6 | @ ACU | L 69-77 | -1.5 | L −9.5 | 131.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 13 | vs TLSA | L 70-83 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 21 | vs SHSU | W 87-78 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 153.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 2 | @ FIU | L 74-89 | -1.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 4 | @ MOST | L 82-89 | +1.5 | L −5.5 | 134.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 8 | vs WKU | W 80-64 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 154.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | vs MTSU | L 55-59 | -3.5 | L −7.5 | 144.5 | U 114 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
15
vsUNM
UNMW 76-68
+11.5
21
vsSAM
SAMW 81-72
+0.5
25
vsUCI
UCIW 57-45
+14.5
26
vsGAST
GASTW 77-58
+6.5
2
vsUSA
USAL 75-77
−4.5
6
@ACU
ACUL 69-77
−9.5
13
vsTLSA
TLSAL 70-83
−8.5
21
vsSHSU
SHSUW 87-78
+3.5
2
@FIU
FIUL 74-89
−16.5
4
@MOST
MOSTL 82-89
−5.5
8
vsWKU
WKUW 80-64
+13.5
10
vsMTSU
MTSUL 55-59
−7.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
15
vsUNM
UNMW 76-68
+4.5
21
vsSAM
SAMW 81-72
+7.5
25
vsUCI
UCIW 57-45
−37.5
26
vsGAST
GASTW 77-58
−1.5
2
vsUSA
USAL 75-77
+16.5
6
@ACU
ACUL 69-77
+14.5
13
vsTLSA
TLSAL 70-83
+6.5
21
vsSHSU
SHSUW 87-78
+11.5
2
@FIU
FIUL 74-89
+5.5
4
@MOST
MOSTL 82-89
+36.5
8
vsWKU
WKUW 80-64
−10.5
10
vsMTSU
MTSUL 55-59
−30.5
over 8under 4avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Liberty
13 games played
Straight up
10-3
77% wins
Against the spread
7-6
54% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-6
54% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | vs COFC | W 90-75 | -9.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 9 | vs FAU | W 88-68 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs UVM | W 79-73 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs TOW | L 69-72 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 137.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 26 | vs BRAD | L 64-74 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 6 | vs COPP | W 92-50 | -30.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 10 | @ NCSU | L 45-85 | +12.5 | L −27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 20 | @ DAY | W 64-61 | +9.5 | W +12.5 | 142.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 28 | @FIU | W 97-94 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 152.5 | O 191 |
| Jan 2 | vs KENN | W 81-73 | -7.5 | W +0.5 | 158.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 4 | vs JXST | W 78-69 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 134.5 | O 147 |
| Jan 8 | @ LT | W 72-56 | -4.5 | W +11.5 | 135.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 10 | @SHSU | W 82-74 | -1.5 | W +6.5 | 154.5 | O 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vsCOFC
COFCW 90-75
+5.5
9
vsFAU
FAUW 88-68
+12.5
24
vsUVM
UVMW 79-73
−2.5
25
vsTOW
TOWL 69-72
−9.5
26
vsBRAD
BRADL 64-74
−14.5
6
vsCOPP
COPPW 92-50
+11.5
10
@NCSU
NCSUL 45-85
−27.5
20
@DAY
DAYW 64-61
+12.5
28
@FIU
FIUW 97-94
−1.5
2
vsKENN
KENNW 81-73
+0.5
4
vsJXST
JXSTW 78-69
−0.5
8
@LT
LTW 72-56
+11.5
10
@SHSU
SHSUW 82-74
+6.5
covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsCOFC
COFCW 90-75
+19.5
9
vsFAU
FAUW 88-68
+3.5
24
vsUVM
UVMW 79-73
+10.5
25
vsTOW
TOWL 69-72
+3.5
26
vsBRAD
BRADL 64-74
−6.5
6
vsCOPP
COPPW 92-50
−1.5
10
@NCSU
NCSUL 45-85
−19.5
20
@DAY
DAYW 64-61
−17.5
28
@FIU
FIUW 97-94
+38.5
2
vsKENN
KENNW 81-73
−4.5
4
vsJXST
JXSTW 78-69
+12.5
8
@LT
LTW 72-56
−7.5
10
@SHSU
SHSUW 82-74
+1.5
over 7under 6avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
New Mexico St
6-6 overall · 2-3 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs MTSU55–59
- Wvs Western KY80–64
- L@ Missouri St82–89
- L@ FIU74–89
- Wvs Sam Houston87–78
5 days since their last game.
Liberty
10-3 overall · 5-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Sam Houston82–74
- W@ Louisiana Tech72–56
- Wvs Jax State78–69
- Wvs Kennesaw St81–73
- W@ FIU97–94
5 days since their last game.