When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. NFL games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · New Orleans Saints · pick one to list those games
55% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 8% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · New Orleans Saints · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 18 |
NO -3 | 41.5 | 21344865 | Q3 | NO Q3 | 17–48 |
2023 · Week 17 |
TB -2.5 | 42.5 | 7172036 | U | NO Q1 | 23–13 |
2023 · Week 16 |
LAR -4 | 45.5 | 7243452 | Q4 | LAR Q1 Late over |
22–30 |
2023 · Week 15 |
NO -6 | 39.5 | 10132330 | U | NO Q3 | 6–24 |
2023 · Week 14 |
NO -5.5 | 38.5 | 0172034 | U | NO Q2 | 6–28 |
2023 · Week 13 |
DET -4 | 48 | 21314861 | Q4 | DET Q1 | 33–28 |
2023 · Week 12 |
NO -2 | 42 | 10232639 | U | ATL Q1 | 15–24 |
2023 · Week 10 |
NO -3 | 41 | 6273846 | Q4 | MIN Q1 | 19–27 |
2023 · Week 9 |
NO -6.5 | 41 | 14283441 | P | NO Q4 | 17–24 |
2023 · Week 8 |
NO -2 | 44 | 14414865 | Q3 | NO Q3 | 38–27 |
2023 · Week 7 |
NO -1.5 | 40.5 | 10233355 | Q4 | JAX Q1 | 31–24 |
2023 · Week 6 |
NO -2.5 | 41.5 | 14273333 | U | HOU Q1 | 13–20 |
ATL
NO
TB
LAR
NYG
CAR
DET
MIN
CHI
IND
JAX
HOUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 58% 7
Q2 8% 1
Q3 25% 3
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 100% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 100% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 1 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.