When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2025 · Northern Illinois · pick one to list those games
42% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 40% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 25% of games.
All 12 games
2025 · Northern Illinois · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 14 |
NIU -4.5 | 44.5 | 10384166 | Q4 | KENT Q1 Lead lost |
35–31 |
2025 · Week 13 |
WMU -6.5 | 38.5 | 10273454 | Q4 | WMU Q3 | 35–19 |
2025 · Week 12 |
NIU -8.5 | 43.5 | 10314548 | Q3 | NIU Q1 | 45–3 |
2025 · Week 11 |
TOL -15.5 | 41.5 | 10313845 | Q4 | TOL Q2 | 3–42 |
2025 · Week 9 |
NIU -6.5 | 42.5 | 7142128 | U | NIU Q3 | 7–21 |
2025 · Week 8 |
OHIO -11.5 | 42.5 | 14294869 | Q3 | OHIO Q1 | 21–48 |
2025 · Week 7 |
NIU -1.5 | 48.5 | 391626 | U | EMU Q4 | 10–16 |
2025 · Week 6 |
M-OH -4.5 | 39.5 | 14243639 | U | M-OH Q3 | 25–14 |
2025 · Week 5 |
SDSU -1.5 | 42.5 | 3669 | U | SDSU Q4 Late cover flip |
6–3 |
2025 · Week 4 |
MSST -24.5 | 48.5 | 10243448 | U | MSST Q4 Late cover flip |
10–38 |
2025 · Week 2 |
MD -16.5 | 44.5 | 3132229 | U | NIU Q1 | 9–20 |
 HC @  NIU2025 · Week 1 |
NIU -13.5 | 48.5 | 39936 | U | HC Q1 | 17–19 |
KENT
WMU
MASS
TOL
BALL
OHIO
EMU
M-OH
SDSU
MSST
MDWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 42% 5
Q2 8% 1
Q3 25% 3
Q4 25% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 60% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 82% and covered 64% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 4 | 75% 3 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.