When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2025 · Michigan State · pick one to list those games
58% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 33% of games.
All 12 games
2025 · Michigan State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 14 |
MSU -4 | 49.5 | 7315966 | Q3 | MSU Q4 Late cover flip |
28–38 |
2025 · Week 13 |
IOWA -17.5 | 43.5 | 7102437 | U | MSU Q1 Lead lost |
17–20 |
2025 · Week 12 |
PSU -6.5 | 49.5 | 14242438 | U | PSU Q4 Late cover flip |
28–10 |
2025 · Week 10 |
MINN -5.5 | 44.5 | 710173443 | U | MSU Q3 | 20–23 |
2025 · Week 9 |
MICH -13.5 | 47.5 | 10173151 | Q4 | MSU Q4 Late over |
31–20 |
2025 · Week 8 |
IU -26.5 | 49.5 | 10314551 | Q4 | MSU Q1 Late over |
13–38 |
2025 · Week 7 |
MSU -6.5 | 51.5 | 17314551 | U | UCLA Q1 | 38–13 |
2025 · Week 6 |
NEB -12.5 | 49.5 | 14214265 | Q4 | MSU Q2 | 27–38 |
2025 · Week 4 |
USC -18.5 | 55.5 | 17345576 | Q4 | MSU Q1 | 31–45 |
 YSU @  MSU2025 · Week 3 |
MSU -27.5 | 56.5 | 10274865 | Q4 | YSU Q1 Late over |
24–41 |
2025 · Week 2 |
MSU -3.5 | 45.5 | 735485482 | Q3 | BC Q2 | 40–42 |
2025 · Week 1 |
MSU -22.5 | 50.5 | 7212329 | U | WMU Q4 Late cover flip |
6–23 |
MD
IOWA
PSU
MINN
MICH
IU
UCLA
NEB
USC
BC
WMUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 42% 5
Q2 17% 2
Q3 8% 1
Q4 33% 4
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 92% and covered 33% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 90% and covered 40% of 10 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.