When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2025 · Buffalo · pick one to list those games
58% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 14% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.
All 12 games
2025 · Buffalo · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 14 |
OHIO -7 | 44.5 | 7284157 | Q4 | BUFF Q4 Late cover flip |
31–26 |
2025 · Week 13 |
M-OH -2.5 | 38.5 | 3275157 | Q3 | M-OH Q2 | 37–20 |
2025 · Week 12 |
CMU -2.5 | 44.5 | 10243757 | Q4 | CMU Q1 | 19–38 |
2025 · Week 10 |
BGSU -2.5 | 44.5 | 7212831 | U | BUFF Q1 | 28–3 |
2025 · Week 9 |
BUFF -10.5 | 48.5 | 5133040 | U | AKR Q1 | 24–16 |
2025 · Week 8 |
BUFF -16.5 | 47.5 | 3244149 | Q4 | MASS Q1 Late over Lead lost |
28–21 |
2025 · Week 6 |
BUFF -9.5 | 53.5 | 1428424861 | OT | EMU Q1 Late over Lead lost |
30–31 |
2025 · Week 5 |
CONN -2.5 | 51.5 | 0142737 | U | CONN Q3 | 20–17 |
2025 · Week 4 |
BUFF -6.5 | 43.5 | 771438 | U | TROY Q4 Lead lost |
21–17 |
2025 · Week 3 |
BUFF -24.5 | 47.5 | 7244559 | Q4 | KENT Q1 Late over |
31–28 |
 SFPA @  BUFF2025 · Week 2 |
BUFF -37.5 | 48.5 | 17243851 | Q4 | BUFF Q3 Late cover flip Late over |
6–45 |
2025 · Week 1 |
MINN -16.5 | 41.5 | 0132333 | U | BUFF Q1 | 10–23 |
OHIO
M-OH
CMU
BGSU
AKR
MASS
EMU
CONN
TROY
KENT
MINNWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 58% 7
Q2 8% 1
Q3 17% 2
Q4 17% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 60% and covered 60% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 82% and covered 64% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.