When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2025 · Ball State · pick one to list those games
42% went over. Of the 5 overs, 40% had cashed by halftime and 60% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.
All 12 games
2025 · Ball State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Week 14 |
M-OH -16.5 | 40.5 | 31414869 | Q2 | M-OH Q2 | 24–45 |
2025 · Week 13 |
TOL -28.5 | 45.5 | 14273447 | Q4 | TOL Q4 Late over |
9–38 |
2025 · Week 12 |
EMU -2.5 | 48.5 | 7202333 | U | EMU Q1 | 24–9 |
2025 · Week 11 |
BALL -3.5 | 48.5 | 3132030 | U | BALL Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
13–17 |
2025 · Week 9 |
NIU -6.5 | 42.5 | 7142128 | U | NIU Q3 | 7–21 |
2025 · Week 8 |
BALL -1.5 | 43.5 | 22295370 | Q3 | BALL Q3 | 28–42 |
2025 · Week 7 |
WMU -9.5 | 42.5 | 7212842 | U | WMU Q2 | 0–42 |
2025 · Week 6 |
OHIO -14.5 | 52.5 | 7142434 | U | BALL Q1 Lead lost |
14–20 |
2025 · Week 4 |
CONN -20.5 | 53.5 | 10172756 | Q4 | BALL Q1 Late over |
25–31 |
 UNH @  BALL2025 · Week 3 |
BALL -2.5 | 46.5 | 28495863 | Q2 | BALL Q2 | 29–34 |
2025 · Week 2 |
AUB -42.5 | 52.5 | 14213145 | U | BALL Q1 | 3–42 |
2025 · Week 1 |
PUR -16.5 | 48.5 | 14212831 | U | PUR Q2 | 0–31 |
M-OH
TOL
EMU
KENT
NIU
AKR
WMU
OHIO
CONN
AUB
PURWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 33% 4
Q2 33% 4
Q3 17% 2
Q4 17% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 82% and covered 64% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 91% and covered 73% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 6 | 17% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.