When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2024 · Utah State · pick one to list those games
82% went over. Of the 9 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.
All 11 games
2024 · Utah State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 14 |
CSU -5.5 | 56.5 | 13294379 | Q4 | USU Q1 Lead lost |
37–42 |
2024 · Week 13 |
USU -4.5 | 59.5 | 3273461 | Q4 | USU Q3 Late over |
20–41 |
2024 · Week 12 |
HAW -2.5 | 61.5 | 17274865 | Q4 | USU Q1 | 10–55 |
2024 · Week 11 |
WSU -20.5 | 67.5 | 14284977 | Q4 | WSU Q3 Late over |
28–49 |
2024 · Week 9 |
USU -1.5 | 56.5 | 10273352 | U | USU Q4 | 27–25 |
2024 · Week 8 |
UNM -0.5 | 77.5 | 14396795 | Q4 | UNM Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
50–45 |
2024 · Week 7 |
UNLV -18.5 | 66.5 | 21486884 | Q3 | USU Q4 Late cover flip |
50–34 |
2024 · Week 6 |
BOIS -27.5 | 66.5 | 17667992 | Q3 | BOIS Q2 | 30–62 |
2024 · Week 4 |
USU -6.5 | 53.5 | 0384574 | Q4 | TEM Q1 | 29–45 |
2024 · Week 3 |
UTAH -20.5 | 43.5 | 10314959 | Q3 | USU Q1 | 38–21 |
2024 · Week 2 |
USC -30.5 | 62.5 | 10273448 | U | USC Q3 | 0–48 |
USU
CSU
SDSU
HAW
WSU
WYO
UNM
UNLV
BOIS
TEM
UTAH
USCWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 36% 4
Q2 9% 1
Q3 27% 3
Q4 27% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 64% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 82% and covered 73% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 33% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.