When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2024 · Stanford · pick one to list those games
42% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 40% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.
All 12 games
2024 · Stanford · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 14 |
SJSU -2.5 | 54.5 | 3274465 | Q4 | SJSU Q2 Late cover flip Lead lost |
31–34 |
2024 · Week 13 |
CAL -15.5 | 52.5 | 14213145 | U | STAN Q1 Lead lost |
21–24 |
2024 · Week 12 |
LOU -20.5 | 57.5 | 17344973 | Q4 | STAN Q1 Lead lost |
35–38 |
2024 · Week 10 |
NCSU -9.5 | 46.5 | 21457387 | Q3 | NCSU Q2 | 28–59 |
2024 · Week 9 |
WAKE -2.5 | 51.5 | 14414151 | U | WAKE Q1 Late cover flip |
27–24 |
2024 · Week 8 |
SMU -16.5 | 52.5 | 21384150 | U | SMU Q1 | 40–10 |
2024 · Week 7 |
ND -22.5 | 45.5 | 14284956 | Q3 | ND Q3 | 7–49 |
2024 · Week 6 |
VT -9.5 | 49.5 | 7142838 | U | VT Q2 | 31–7 |
2024 · Week 5 |
CLEM -23.5 | 57.5 | 10243454 | U | CLEM Q4 | 14–40 |
2024 · Week 4 |
SYR -9.5 | 56.5 | 7233750 | U | STAN Q1 | 26–24 |
 CP @  STAN2024 · Week 2 |
STAN -33.5 | 59.5 | 7213848 | U | STAN Q4 Late cover flip |
7–41 |
2024 · Week 1 |
TCU -8.5 | 58.5 | 14273761 | Q4 | STAN Q1 Late over Lead lost |
34–27 |
SJSU
CAL
LOU
NCSU
WAKE
SMU
ND
VT
CLEM
SYR
TCUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 25% 3
Q3 8% 1
Q4 17% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 92% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 83% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 20% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.