When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2024 · South Florida · pick one to list those games
64% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 9% of games.
All 11 games
2024 · South Florida · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
USF -0.5 | 64.5 | 731415480 | OT | USF OT Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
41–39 |
2024 · Week 14 |
USF -5.5 | 53.5 | 24344963 | Q4 | RICE Q1 Late over |
28–35 |
2024 · Week 13 |
USF -13.5 | 60.5 | 28495693 | Q4 | USF Q1 | 30–63 |
2024 · Week 12 |
CLT -1.5 | 53.5 | 14246283 | Q3 | USF Q1 | 59–24 |
2024 · Week 11 |
NAVY -4.5 | 59.5 | 14212135 | U | NAVY Q1 | 28–7 |
2024 · Week 10 |
USF -1.5 | 47.5 | 7215265 | Q3 | USF Q3 | 44–21 |
2024 · Week 8 |
USF -14.5 | 56.5 | 3163960 | Q4 | UAB Q1 Late over |
25–35 |
2024 · Week 7 |
MEM -10.5 | 58.5 | 14171724 | U | MEM Q1 | 21–3 |
2024 · Week 5 |
TULN -5.5 | 60.5 | 14384155 | U | TULN Q1 | 10–45 |
2024 · Week 4 |
MIA -15.5 | 63.5 | 23375165 | Q4 | MIA Q3 Late over |
50–15 |
2024 · Week 2 |
ALA -33.5 | 65.5 | 10202758 | U | USF Q1 | 16–42 |
USF
SJSU
RICE
TLSA
CLT
NAVY
FAU
UAB
MEM
TULN
MIA
ALAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 73% 8
Q2 0% 0
Q3 18% 2
Q4 0% 0
OT 9% 1
The team leading at halftime won 82% and covered 82% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 82% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 4 | 25% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.