When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2024 · South Alabama · pick one to list those games
42% went over. Of the 5 overs, 20% had cashed by halftime and 80% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.
All 12 games
2024 · South Alabama · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
USA -5.5 | 54.5 | 7293653 | U | USA Q3 Late cover flip |
30–23 |
2024 · Week 14 |
TXST -2.5 | 60.5 | 28496683 | Q3 | TXST Q4 | 45–38 |
2024 · Week 13 |
USA -24.5 | 54.5 | 8253949 | U | USM Q1 | 35–14 |
2024 · Week 12 |
UL -6.5 | 60.5 | 7273046 | U | USA Q1 | 24–22 |
2024 · Week 10 |
USA -5.5 | 59.5 | 10274464 | Q4 | GASO Q4 | 34–30 |
2024 · Week 9 |
USA -7.5 | 45.5 | 14294963 | Q3 | USA Q3 | 17–46 |
2024 · Week 8 |
USA -8.5 | 51.5 | 3222834 | U | USA Q2 | 9–25 |
2024 · Week 6 |
USA -2.5 | 62.5 | 391934 | U | ARST Q1 | 16–18 |
2024 · Week 5 |
LSU -20.5 | 64.5 | 21384552 | U | LSU Q1 | 10–42 |
 NWST @  USA2024 · Week 3 |
USA -36.5 | 60.5 | 34629097 | Q2 | USA Q2 | 10–87 |
2024 · Week 2 |
USA -1.5 | 55.5 | 3274147 | U | OHIO Q1 | 20–27 |
2024 · Week 1 |
USA -5.5 | 60.5 | 10336890 | Q3 | UNT Q1 | 52–38 |
WMU
TXST
USM
UL
GASO
ULM
TROY
ARST
LSU
OHIO
UNTWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 17% 2
Q3 17% 2
Q4 17% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 67% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 67% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 4 | 100% 4 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.