When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2024 · Middle Tennessee · pick one to list those games
45% went over. Of the 5 overs, 20% had cashed by halftime and 60% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
All 11 games
2024 · Middle Tennessee · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 14 |
FIU -9.5 | 50.5 | 14454559 | Q4 | FIU Q1 | 24–35 |
2024 · Week 13 |
MTSU -3.5 | 53.5 | 10204057 | Q4 | NMSU Q1 | 36–21 |
2024 · Week 11 |
LIB -12.5 | 54.5 | 14343754 | U | LIB Q2 | 37–17 |
2024 · Week 10 |
UTEP -1.5 | 48.5 | 6202633 | U | MTSU Q1 | 20–13 |
2024 · Week 9 |
JXST -20.5 | 64.5 | 24244862 | U | JXST Q3 | 20–42 |
2024 · Week 8 |
MTSU -10.5 | 50.5 | 991619 | U | KENN Q4 | 5–14 |
2024 · Week 7 |
LT -4.5 | 47.5 | 34486969 | Q2 | LT Q1 | 21–48 |
2024 · Week 5 |
MEM -27.5 | 60.5 | 0143131 | U | MTSU Q1 | 7–24 |
2024 · Week 4 |
DUKE -14.5 | 50.5 | 38455562 | Q3 | DUKE Q1 | 45–17 |
2024 · Week 3 |
WKU -10.5 | 53.5 | 14215670 | Q3 | WKU Q1 | 49–21 |
2024 · Week 2 |
MISS -42.5 | 60.5 | 17344855 | U | MISS Q4 | 3–52 |
MTSU
FIU
NMSU
LIB
UTEP
JXST
KENN
LT
MEM
DUKE
WKU
MISSWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 64% 7
Q2 9% 1
Q3 9% 1
Q4 18% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 80% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 80% of 10 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.