When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2024 · Michigan · pick one to list those games
64% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.
All 11 games
2024 · Michigan · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
ALA -16.5 | 45.5 | 16262632 | U | MICH Q1 | 13–19 |
2024 · Week 14 |
OSU -20.5 | 41.5 | 3202023 | U | MICH Q1 | 13–10 |
2024 · Week 13 |
MICH -10.5 | 34.5 | 10233756 | Q3 | MICH Q2 | 6–50 |
2024 · Week 11 |
IU -14.5 | 47.5 | 10202635 | U | MICH Q1 | 15–20 |
2024 · Week 10 |
ORE -14.5 | 45.5 | 14384855 | Q3 | ORE Q4 Late cover flip |
38–17 |
2024 · Week 9 |
MICH -3.5 | 39.5 | 7162641 | Q4 | MICH Q3 | 17–24 |
2024 · Week 8 |
MICH -5.5 | 44.5 | 3202828 | U | ILL Q1 | 7–21 |
2024 · Week 6 |
WASH -1.5 | 39.5 | 7243144 | Q4 | WASH Q4 | 17–27 |
2024 · Week 5 |
MICH -10.5 | 34.5 | 7242751 | Q4 | MINN Q4 | 24–27 |
2024 · Week 4 |
USC -4.5 | 43.5 | 7173751 | Q4 | MICH Q1 Lead lost |
24–27 |
2024 · Week 2 |
TEX -6.5 | 41.5 | 7273743 | Q4 | TEX Q1 Late over |
31–12 |
ALA
MICH
OSU
NU
IU
ORE
MSU
ILL
WASH
MINN
USC
TEXWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 55% 6
Q2 9% 1
Q3 9% 1
Q4 27% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 80% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 90% and covered 70% of 10 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 2 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.