When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2024 · Liberty · pick one to list those games
42% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 8% of games.
All 12 games
2024 · Liberty · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
BUFF -3.5 | 50.5 | 691633 | U | BUFF Q1 | 26–7 |
2024 · Week 14 |
LIB -2.5 | 47.5 | 5262938 | U | SHSU Q1 | 18–20 |
2024 · Week 13 |
LIB -1.5 | 55.5 | 0284959 | Q4 | LIB Q2 Late over |
21–38 |
2024 · Week 12 |
LIB -16.5 | 52.5 | 727345669 | Q4 | MASS Q1 Late over Lead lost |
35–34 |
2024 · Week 11 |
LIB -12.5 | 54.5 | 14343754 | U | LIB Q2 | 37–17 |
2024 · Week 10 |
LIB -2.5 | 63.5 | 14283852 | U | JXST Q1 | 31–21 |
2024 · Week 9 |
LIB -27.5 | 47.5 | 14283851 | Q4 | KENN Q1 Late over |
24–27 |
2024 · Week 7 |
LIB -15.5 | 55.5 | 627274855 | U | FIU Q1 | 24–31 |
2024 · Week 4 |
LIB -7.5 | 54.5 | 14244559 | Q4 | LIB Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
24–35 |
2024 · Week 3 |
LIB -23.5 | 57.5 | 10173138 | U | UTEP Q1 | 10–28 |
2024 · Week 2 |
LIB -22.5 | 54.5 | 13262654 | U | NMSU Q1 Lead lost |
30–24 |
 CAM @  LIB2024 · Week 1 |
LIB -41.5 | 58.5 | 10274465 | Q4 | CAM Q1 Late over |
24–41 |
BUFF
SHSU
WKU
MASS
MTSU
JXST
KENN
FIU
ECU
UTEP
NMSUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 75% 9
Q2 17% 2
Q3 0% 0
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 70% and covered 60% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 67% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.