When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2024 · Florida · pick one to list those games
42% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 60% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 8% of games.
All 12 games
2024 · Florida · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Postseason |
FLA -9.5 | 49.5 | 361641 | U | FLA Q3 | 8–33 |
2024 · Week 14 |
FLA -17.5 | 45.5 | 7142042 | U | FLA Q4 | 31–11 |
2024 · Week 13 |
MISS -13.5 | 57.5 | 0283441 | U | FLA Q1 | 17–24 |
2024 · Week 12 |
LSU -2.5 | 55.5 | 7202643 | U | FLA Q1 | 16–27 |
2024 · Week 11 |
TEX -24.5 | 48.5 | 14355266 | Q3 | TEX Q2 | 17–49 |
2024 · Week 10 |
UGA -14.5 | 52.5 | 3193354 | Q4 | FLA Q1 Late over |
20–34 |
2024 · Week 8 |
UK -2.5 | 41.5 | 3405468 | Q3 | FLA Q1 | 20–48 |
2024 · Week 7 |
TENN -13.5 | 54.5 | 33203440 | U | FLA Q1 | 17–23 |
2024 · Week 6 |
UCF -1.5 | 60.5 | 10273037 | U | FLA Q1 | 13–24 |
2024 · Week 3 |
TA&M -3.5 | 45.5 | 10204753 | Q3 | TA&M Q1 | 33–20 |
 SAM @  FLA2024 · Week 2 |
FLA -38.5 | 55.5 | 7143552 | U | SAM Q1 | 7–45 |
2024 · Week 1 |
MIA -2.5 | 54.5 | 10344858 | Q4 | MIA Q1 | 41–17 |
TULN
FSU
MISS
LSU
TEX
UGA
UK
TENN
UCF
TA&M
MIAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 75% 9
Q2 8% 1
Q3 8% 1
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 80% and covered 90% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 78% of 9 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 6 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.