When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2024 · Ball State · pick one to list those games
73% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 38% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.
All 11 games
2024 · Ball State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 · Week 14 |
OHIO -17.5 | 51.5 | 14284963 | Q4 | OHIO Q3 | 21–42 |
2024 · Week 13 |
BGSU -12.5 | 54.5 | 7173551 | U | BGSU Q3 | 38–13 |
2024 · Week 12 |
BUFF -3.5 | 54.5 | 1452669099 | Q3 | BALL Q1 Lead lost |
48–51 |
2024 · Week 11 |
M-OH -12.5 | 48.5 | 14344248 | U | BALL Q1 | 27–21 |
2024 · Week 9 |
NIU -13.5 | 47.5 | 14333348 | Q4 | BALL Q1 Late over |
23–25 |
2024 · Week 8 |
VAN -27.5 | 56.5 | 10212838 | U | BALL Q1 | 14–24 |
2024 · Week 7 |
BALL -3.5 | 58.5 | 10274172 | Q4 | KENT Q4 Late cover flip Late over |
37–35 |
2024 · Week 6 |
WMU -10.5 | 57.5 | 35426687 | Q3 | BALL Q1 | 45–42 |
2024 · Week 5 |
JMU -20.5 | 54.5 | 29365670 | Q3 | JMU Q2 | 7–63 |
2024 · Week 4 |
CMU -5.5 | 49.5 | 10404771 | Q4 | BALL Q3 | 34–37 |
2024 · Week 2 |
BALL -2.5 | 50.5 | 7142876 | Q4 | BALL Q4 | 34–42 |
BALL
OHIO
BGSU
BUFF
M-OH
NIU
VAN
KENT
WMU
JMU
CMU
MOSTWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 45% 5
Q2 9% 1
Q3 27% 3
Q4 18% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 89% and covered 56% of 9 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 63% and covered 88% of 8 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 2 | 50% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.