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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Virginia ✕

When did they go over?

12 games · 2023 · Virginia · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games12100%By halftime00%In Q3217%In Q4542%In OT18%Stayed under433%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands00%Over cashed217%Leader lost the game18%
80% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 25% of games.

All 12 games

2023 · Virginia · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 13
 VT -1.5 53 10245872 Q3 VT Q1 55–17
2023 · Week 12
 DUKE -3 46 7203757 Q4 UVA Q1 27–30
2023 · Week 11
 LOU -20.5 50 7143555 Q4 UVA Q1
Late over
 24–31
2023 · Week 10
 GT PK 56 10344162 Q4 GT Q2 45–17
2023 · Week 9
 MIA -18.5 48 713374655 OT UVA Q1
Late over
 26–29
2023 · Week 8
 UNC -24 58 21314858 P UVA Q1 31–27
W&M @ UVA
2023 · Week 6
 UVA -8.5 42 9333340 U UVA Q4 13–27
2023 · Week 5
 BC -5 51 7284551 P UVA Q1 24–27
2023 · Week 4
 NCSU -8.5 47 0213445 U UVA Q1 24–21
2023 · Week 3
 MD -16.5 48.5 21283556 Q4 MD Q4 14–42
2023 · Week 2
 JMU -6 40 24315971 Q3 UVA Q2
Lead lost
 36–35
2023 · Week 1
 TENN -28 58.5 7244562 Q4 TENN Q4 13–49
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 58% 7
Q2 17% 2
Q3 0% 0
Q4 25% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 70% and covered 60% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 73% and covered 82% of 11 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
4–710% 0
8–10250% 1
11–14560% 3
15–172100% 2
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.