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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

UAB ✕

When did they go over?

12 games · 2023 · UAB · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games12100%By halftime00%In Q3325%In Q4433%In OT00%Stayed under542%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands325%Over cashed217%Leader lost the game18%
58% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 43% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 25% of games.

All 12 games

2023 · UAB · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 13
 UNT -2 72 20425387 Q4 UNT Q4 42–45
2023 · Week 12
 UAB -7.5 61.5 7243458 U UAB Q4
Late cover flip
 24–34
2023 · Week 11
 UAB -2.5 52 10131637 U NAVY Q1 6–31
2023 · Week 10
 FAU PK 59 7426387 Q3 UAB Q1
Late cover flip Lead lost
 42–45
2023 · Week 8
 MEM -7.5 61.5 21425966 Q4 MEM Q3
Late over
 45–21
2023 · Week 7
 UTSA -7.5 66.5 28375161 U UTSA Q1 20–41
2023 · Week 6
 USF -3 68 35497091 Q3 UAB Q1 35–56
2023 · Week 5
 TULN -22.5 59.5 10344858 U UAB Q1 23–35
2023 · Week 4
 UGA -40 56 7425670 Q4 UAB Q1 21–49
2023 · Week 3
 UAB -2 60 0243762 Q4 UL Q1
Late over
 41–21
2023 · Week 2
 GASO -7 63 14506484 Q3 GASO Q4 35–49
NCAT @ UAB
2023 · Week 1
 UAB -24.5 46.5 10243141 U UAB Q3
Late cover flip
 6–35
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 58% 7
Q2 0% 0
Q3 17% 2
Q4 25% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 73% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 91% and covered 73% of 11 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over3100% 3
1–32100% 2
11–1410% 0
15–1720% 0
18–211100% 1
22+333% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.