When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · Texas State · pick one to list those games
50% went over. Of the 6 overs, 17% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · Texas State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
TXST -3.5 | 59.5 | 21455966 | Q4 | TXST Q3 Late over |
45–21 |
2023 · Week 13 |
USA -6 | 57 | 24486296 | Q3 | TXST Q1 | 44–52 |
2023 · Week 12 |
TXST -3 | 60 | 245287108 | Q3 | ARST Q1 | 31–77 |
2023 · Week 11 |
TXST -2.5 | 55 | 17313854 | U | CCU Q2 | 23–31 |
2023 · Week 10 |
TXST -2.5 | 68.5 | 17416269 | Q4 | TXST Q2 | 24–45 |
2023 · Week 9 |
TROY -6.5 | 53 | 7172744 | U | TROY Q4 | 31–13 |
2023 · Week 7 |
TXST -19.5 | 64.5 | 10161941 | U | ULM Q1 Lead lost |
20–21 |
2023 · Week 6 |
UL -1 | 67.5 | 17344464 | U | UL Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
30–34 |
2023 · Week 5 |
TXST -6.5 | 60 | 31525886 | Q4 | TXST Q1 Late cover flip |
50–36 |
2023 · Week 4 |
TXST -17 | 60 | 10173859 | U | NEV Q1 | 24–35 |
 JKST @  TXST2023 · Week 3 |
TXST -17.5 | 61.5 | 277690111 | Q2 | TXST Q2 | 34–77 |
2023 · Week 2 |
UTSA -14 | 66 | 3202733 | U | TXST Q1 | 13–20 |
RICE
USA
ARST
CCU
GASO
TROY
ULM
UL
USM
NEV
UTSAWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 25% 3
Q3 8% 1
Q4 17% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 73% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 75% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 5 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.