When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2023 · Old Dominion · pick one to list those games
55% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.
All 11 games
2023 · Old Dominion · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
ODU -4.5 | 49.5 | 2135497073 | Q4 | WKU Q4 Late cover flip Lead lost |
38–35 |
2023 · Week 13 |
ODU -1.5 | 51.5 | 7212849 | U | GAST Q1 Lead lost |
24–25 |
2023 · Week 12 |
GASO -5.5 | 62.5 | 0172737 | U | ODU Q1 | 20–17 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LIB -14 | 60.5 | 14384148 | U | LIB Q2 | 10–38 |
2023 · Week 10 |
ODU -1 | 51.5 | 7133452 | Q4 | CCU Q4 Late over |
28–24 |
2023 · Week 9 |
JMU -19.5 | 48 | 10245457 | Q3 | ODU Q1 | 27–30 |
2023 · Week 8 |
APP -6 | 56 | 7314149 | U | ODU Q2 Lead lost |
21–28 |
2023 · Week 5 |
MRSH -14.5 | 47 | 10386676 | Q3 | ODU Q1 | 35–41 |
2023 · Week 3 |
WAKE -13.5 | 60 | 0173751 | U | ODU Q1 | 27–24 |
2023 · Week 2 |
UL -6.5 | 51 | 17344869 | Q4 | ODU Q1 | 31–38 |
2023 · Week 1 |
VT -16 | 48 | 2264753 | Q4 | VT Q4 | 17–36 |
WKU
ODU
GAST
GASO
LIB
CCU
JMU
APP
MRSH
WAKE
UL
VTWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 55% 6
Q2 18% 2
Q3 0% 0
Q4 27% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 50% and covered 70% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 55% and covered 55% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.