When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · North Carolina · pick one to list those games
55% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 8% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · North Carolina · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
WVU -4.5 | 62 | 7273040 | U | WVU Q1 | 10–30 |
2023 · Week 13 |
UNC -2.5 | 55.5 | 6335959 | Q3 | NCSU Q1 | 20–39 |
2023 · Week 12 |
CLEM -7.5 | 59.5 | 7214251 | U | CLEM Q3 | 20–31 |
2023 · Week 11 |
UNC -10 | 53 | 1030337292 | Q4 | DUKE Q2 Lead lost |
45–47 |
 CAM @  UNC2023 · Week 10 |
UNC -38 | 68.5 | 14355266 | U | UNC Q4 | 7–59 |
2023 · Week 9 |
UNC -12 | 65.5 | 14525988 | Q4 | GT Q2 Lead lost |
42–46 |
2023 · Week 8 |
UNC -24 | 58 | 21314858 | P | UVA Q1 | 31–27 |
2023 · Week 7 |
UNC -2.5 | 55.5 | 7315272 | Q4 | UNC Q3 | 31–41 |
2023 · Week 4 |
UNC -7 | 49.5 | 14456565 | Q3 | UNC Q2 | 41–24 |
2023 · Week 3 |
UNC -7 | 52 | 7313744 | U | UNC Q2 | 13–31 |
2023 · Week 2 |
UNC -18 | 58 | 020375474 | OT | APP Q1 Late over |
34–40 |
2023 · Week 1 |
UNC -2.5 | 63.5 | 14314548 | U | UNC Q2 | 31–17 |
WVU
NCSU
CLEM
DUKE
GT
UVA
MIA
PITT
MINN
APP
SCWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 33% 4
Q2 42% 5
Q3 17% 2
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 64% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 91% and covered 73% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 15–17 | 2 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 22+ | 2 | 50% 1 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.