When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · Mississippi State · pick one to list those games
55% went over. Of the 6 overs, 17% had cashed by halftime and 50% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · Mississippi State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
MISS -10 | 54.5 | 031724 | U | Push | 17–7 |
2023 · Week 12 |
MSST -18 | 48 | 10233061 | Q4 | MSST Q4 Late cover flip |
20–41 |
2023 · Week 11 |
TA&M -16.5 | 40 | 24445861 | Q2 | TA&M Q2 | 10–51 |
2023 · Week 10 |
UK -5.5 | 44.5 | 7242727 | U | UK Q1 | 24–3 |
2023 · Week 9 |
AUB -6.5 | 40 | 17273340 | P | AUB Q1 | 13–27 |
2023 · Week 8 |
ARK -7 | 46.5 | 3101010 | U | MSST Q1 | 7–3 |
2023 · Week 6 |
MSST -21.5 | 54.5 | 10245269 | Q4 | WMU Q1 | 28–41 |
2023 · Week 5 |
ALA -16.5 | 45 | 14415157 | Q3 | ALA Q2 | 40–17 |
2023 · Week 4 |
SC -6 | 47 | 7375467 | Q3 | SC Q4 | 30–37 |
2023 · Week 3 |
LSU -9.5 | 54 | 10314155 | Q4 | LSU Q1 Late over |
41–14 |
2023 · Week 2 |
MSST -9 | 60 | 1421354855 | U | ARIZ Q2 | 24–31 |
 SELA @  MSST2023 · Week 1 |
MSST -31.5 | 59.5 | 3273455 | U | MSST Q4 | 7–48 |
MISS
USM
TA&M
UK
AUB
ARK
WMU
ALA
SC
LSU
ARIZWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 42% 5
Q2 25% 3
Q3 0% 0
Q4 25% 3
OT 0% 0
Push 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 75% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 73% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 22+ | 4 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.