When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
11 games · 2023 · Minnesota · pick one to list those games
45% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 40% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 27% of games.
All 11 games
2023 · Minnesota · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
MINN -2.5 | 44.5 | 13193354 | Q4 | MINN Q3 | 24–30 |
2023 · Week 13 |
WIS -3 | 46 | 7284242 | U | WIS Q3 | 28–14 |
2023 · Week 12 |
OSU -27.5 | 51.5 | 7133040 | U | OSU Q3 | 3–37 |
2023 · Week 11 |
MINN -2 | 48 | 24485579 | Q3 | PUR Q1 | 30–49 |
2023 · Week 10 |
MINN -2.5 | 44 | 21314153 | Q4 | ILL Q3 Late cover flip Lead lost |
27–26 |
2023 · Week 9 |
MINN -6.5 | 41.5 | 6161639 | U | MINN Q4 Late cover flip |
12–27 |
2023 · Week 8 |
IOWA -3.5 | 30.5 | 6131922 | U | MINN Q3 | 12–10 |
2023 · Week 5 |
MINN -9.5 | 49 | 14313859 | Q4 | MINN Q4 | 24–35 |
2023 · Week 4 |
MINN -12 | 39.5 | 731416271 | Q3 | NU Q4 Lead lost |
34–37 |
2023 · Week 3 |
UNC -7 | 52 | 7313744 | U | UNC Q2 | 13–31 |
2023 · Week 2 |
MINN -19.5 | 48 | 0162631 | U | EMU Q1 | 6–25 |
BGSU
MINN
WIS
OSU
PUR
ILL
MSU
IOWA
UL
NU
UNC
EMUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 18% 2
Q2 9% 1
Q3 45% 5
Q4 27% 3
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 50% and covered 40% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 82% and covered 73% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 4–7 | 2 | 50% 1 |
| 11–14 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.