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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Maryland ✕

When did they go over?

12 games · 2023 · Maryland · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games12100%By halftime00%In Q3217%In Q4650%In OT00%Stayed under433%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands18%Over cashed217%Leader lost the game00%
67% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.

All 12 games

2023 · Maryland · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 AUB -4.5 48 21313844 U MD Q1 13–31
2023 · Week 13
 MD -2 45 24455266 Q3 MD Q1 42–24
2023 · Week 12
 MICH -18 51 19335355 Q3 MD Q1 31–24
2023 · Week 11
 MD -2 42.5 071723 U MD Q4
Late cover flip
 13–10
2023 · Week 10
 PSU -7.5 49.5 14283166 Q4 PSU Q1 51–15
2023 · Week 9
 MD -14 48.5 28414760 Q4 NU Q1 27–33
2023 · Week 7
 MD -13.5 50.5 14284551 Q4 ILL Q1
Late over
 27–24
2023 · Week 5
 MD -14.5 50 24304061 Q4 MD Q1 17–44
2023 · Week 4
 MD -7 51.5 7243040 U MD Q2 31–9
2023 · Week 3
 MD -16.5 48.5 21283556 Q4 MD Q4 14–42
2023 · Week 2
 MD -24.5 50 14233158 Q4 CLT Q1
Late over
 20–38
TOW @ MD
2023 · Week 1
 MD -38.5 55.5 21314144 U TOW Q1 6–38
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 75% 9
Q2 8% 1
Q3 0% 0
Q4 17% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 90% and covered 80% of 10 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 92% and covered 67% of 12 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
1–31100% 1
4–71100% 1
11–14367% 2
15–1710% 0
18–212100% 2
22+20% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.