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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Marshall ✕

When did they go over?

12 games · 2023 · Marshall · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games12100%By halftime00%In Q318%In Q4542%In OT00%Stayed under650%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands00%Over cashed18%Leader lost the game00%
50% went over. Of the 6 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 17% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.

All 12 games

2023 · Marshall · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 UTSA -7 47 7384552 Q4 UTSA Q3 35–17
2023 · Week 13
 MRSH -1.5 52.5 14354956 Q4 MRSH Q1
Late over
 21–35
2023 · Week 12
 USA -10 45.5 14212128 U USA Q1 0–28
2023 · Week 11
 GASO -1 56.5 13375071 Q4 MRSH Q4 33–38
2023 · Week 10
 APP -3 58.5 0243740 U APP Q2 9–31
2023 · Week 9
 MRSH -3.5 47 10333340 U CCU Q1 6–34
2023 · Week 8
 JMU -5 49 031529 U JMU Q3 20–9
2023 · Week 7
 GAST -1.5 53.5 21445165 Q4 GAST Q1 24–41
2023 · Week 5
 MRSH -14.5 47 10386676 Q3 ODU Q1 35–41
2023 · Week 4
 MRSH -6.5 43 7273441 U MRSH Q2 17–24
2023 · Week 2
 MRSH -3 43.5 0202344 Q4 MRSH Q4 31–13
ALB @ MRSH
2023 · Week 1
 MRSH -22 47.5 033138 U ALB Q1 17–21
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 17% 2
Q3 17% 2
Q4 17% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 73% and covered 91% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 75% and covered 75% of 12 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over1100% 1
1–32100% 2
4–72100% 2
8–1010% 0
15–1720% 0
18–211100% 1
22+30% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.