When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · Louisville · pick one to list those games
58% went over. Of the 7 overs, 14% had cashed by halftime and 43% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · Louisville · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
LOU -5 | 58 | 14425670 | Q4 | USC Q1 | 28–42 |
2023 · Week 14 |
LOU PK | 46 | 031322 | U | FSU Q2 | 6–16 |
2023 · Week 13 |
LOU -7.5 | 48 | 7174569 | Q4 | UK Q1 | 38–31 |
2023 · Week 12 |
LOU PK | 46 | 28415169 | Q3 | LOU Q4 Late cover flip |
38–31 |
2023 · Week 11 |
LOU -20.5 | 50 | 7143555 | Q4 | UVA Q1 Late over |
24–31 |
2023 · Week 10 |
LOU -9 | 46.5 | 7173037 | U | LOU Q2 | 3–34 |
2023 · Week 9 |
LOU -4.5 | 47 | 14172323 | U | LOU Q1 | 0–23 |
2023 · Week 7 |
LOU -7.5 | 46.5 | 14355259 | Q3 | PITT Q1 | 21–38 |
2023 · Week 5 |
LOU -3.5 | 56.5 | 0102023 | U | NCSU Q1 | 13–10 |
2023 · Week 4 |
LOU -14 | 53.5 | 14567784 | Q2 | LOU Q2 | 28–56 |
2023 · Week 3 |
LOU -10 | 51 | 7213535 | U | IU Q3 | 21–14 |
 MUR @  LOU2023 · Week 2 |
LOU -43.5 | 55.5 | 7284256 | Q4 | LOU Q4 | 0–56 |
USC
FSU
UK
MIA
UVA
VT
DUKE
PITT
NCSU
BC
IUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 25% 3
Q3 8% 1
Q4 17% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 67% and covered 58% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 73% and covered 73% of 11 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 3 | 100% 3 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 4–7 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 11–14 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 3 | 33% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.