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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Iowa State ✕

When did they go over?

12 games · 2023 · Iowa State · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games12100%By halftime217%In Q3217%In Q4217%In OT00%Stayed under650%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands00%Over cashed00%Leader lost the game00%
50% went over. Of the 6 overs, 33% had cashed by halftime and 67% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 9% of games.

All 12 games

2023 · Iowa State · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 MEM -10 58 19355662 Q4 Push 26–36
2023 · Week 13
 KSU -9.5 47 13345677 Q3 ISU Q1 42–35
2023 · Week 12
 TEX -7 44.5 392442 U TEX Q4 26–16
2023 · Week 11
 ISU -7.5 41 24385858 Q3 ISU Q1 45–13
2023 · Week 10
 ISU -2.5 54 7173249 U KU Q1 28–21
2023 · Week 9
 ISU -3 47 7233948 Q4 ISU Q1 30–18
2023 · Week 7
 CIN -3.5 41.5 10243340 U ISU Q2 30–10
2023 · Week 5
 OU -19.5 48.5 31606770 Q2 OU Q2 20–50
2023 · Week 4
 ISU -3.5 36 14374761 Q2 ISU Q3 27–34
2023 · Week 3
 ISU -1.5 42 00717 U OHIO Q1 7–10
2023 · Week 2
 IOWA -3.5 35 3202333 U IOWA Q2 20–13
UNI @ ISU
2023 · Week 1
 ISU -7 40.5 14233339 U ISU Q1 9–30
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 25% 3
Q3 8% 1
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
Push 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 91% and covered 82% of 11 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 91% of 11 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over4100% 4
1–31100% 1
8–10333% 1
11–1410% 0
18–2110% 0
22+20% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.