When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · Duke · pick one to list those games
64% went over. Of the 7 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 0% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 8% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · Duke · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Postseason |
TROY -6.5 | 44.5 | 8141727 | U | DUKE Q1 | 10–17 |
2023 · Week 13 |
DUKE -4.5 | 41.5 | 6203349 | Q4 | DUKE Q3 | 19–30 |
2023 · Week 12 |
DUKE -3 | 46 | 7203757 | Q4 | UVA Q1 | 27–30 |
2023 · Week 11 |
UNC -10 | 53 | 1030337292 | Q4 | DUKE Q2 Lead lost |
45–47 |
2023 · Week 10 |
DUKE -6.5 | 41 | 7283545 | Q4 | WAKE Q1 | 21–24 |
2023 · Week 9 |
LOU -4.5 | 47 | 14172323 | U | LOU Q1 | 0–23 |
2023 · Week 8 |
FSU -14 | 48.5 | 17373758 | Q4 | FSU Q4 Late cover flip |
20–38 |
2023 · Week 7 |
DUKE -3.5 | 42.5 | 10202727 | U | DUKE Q1 | 3–24 |
2023 · Week 5 |
ND -5.5 | 52.5 | 7102035 | U | ND Q1 Late cover flip Lead lost |
21–14 |
2023 · Week 4 |
DUKE -22 | 46 | 7274148 | Q4 | DUKE Q2 Late over |
41–7 |
2023 · Week 3 |
DUKE -17 | 48 | 7243852 | Q4 | DUKE Q3 Late over |
14–38 |
 LAF @  DUKE2023 · Week 2 |
DUKE -42.5 | 49 | 14284249 | P | LAF Q1 | 7–42 |
TROY
PITT
UVA
UNC
WAKE
LOU
FSU
NCSU
ND
CONN
NUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 58% 7
Q2 17% 2
Q3 17% 2
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 89% and covered 67% of 9 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 75% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| 4–7 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 8–10 | 3 | 67% 2 |
| 11–14 | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 22+ | 3 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.