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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Cincinnati ✕

When did they go over?

12 games · 2023 · Cincinnati · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games12100%By halftime00%In Q318%In Q4758%In OT00%Stayed under433%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands00%Over cashed217%Leader lost the game00%
67% went over. Of the 8 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 13% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 17% of games.

All 12 games

2023 · Cincinnati · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Week 13
 KU -7.5 58.5 3313865 Q4 KU Q2
Late over
 49–16
2023 · Week 12
 WVU -5 52.5 7354963 Q4 WVU Q1 21–42
2023 · Week 11
 HOU -3 53.5 7212438 U CIN Q1 24–14
2023 · Week 10
 UCF -3.5 60 10243854 U CIN Q4 28–26
2023 · Week 9
 OKST -7 53 14173858 Q4 OKST Q3
Late over
 13–45
2023 · Week 8
 CIN -2.5 51.5 3344361 Q4 BAY Q1 32–29
2023 · Week 7
 CIN -3.5 41.5 10243340 U ISU Q2 30–10
2023 · Week 5
 CIN PK 48 7244862 Q4 BYU Q1 27–35
2023 · Week 4
 OU -13.5 57 10132326 U OU Q4 20–6
2023 · Week 3
 CIN -14.5 44.5 1727374855 Q4 M-OH Q1 31–24
2023 · Week 2
 PITT -6.5 44.5 17273448 Q4 CIN Q1 27–21
EKU @ CIN
2023 · Week 1
 CIN -21.5 57.5 21496279 Q3 CIN Q2 13–66
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 25% 3
Q3 8% 1
Q4 17% 2
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 100% and covered 92% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 100% and covered 92% of 12 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over1100% 1
1–31100% 1
4–71100% 1
8–10367% 2
11–141100% 1
15–171100% 1
18–211100% 1
22+30% 0
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.