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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

Boston College ✕

When did they go over?

12 games · 2023 · Boston College · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games12100%By halftime18%In Q318%In Q4433%In OT18%Stayed under542%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands218%Over cashed19%Leader lost the game00%
64% went over. Of the 7 overs, 14% had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 8% of games.

All 12 games

2023 · Boston College · newest first
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 SMU -13.5 49.5 3242437 U BC Q1 14–23
2023 · Week 13
 MIA -10 50 14354965 Q4 MIA Q2 45–20
2023 · Week 12
 PITT -2.5 46.5 6163040 U PITT Q2
Late cover flip
 16–24
2023 · Week 11
 VT -2.5 47.5 17385370 Q3 VT Q1 48–22
2023 · Week 10
 BC -1 47.5 10171727 U BC Q2
Late cover flip
 17–10
2023 · Week 9
 BC -14.5 49 14212835 U CONN Q1 14–21
2023 · Week 8
 GT -6 57 17274061 Q4 BC Q4 38–23
2023 · Week 5
 BC -5 51 7284551 P UVA Q1 24–27
2023 · Week 4
 LOU -14 53.5 14567784 Q2 LOU Q2 28–56
2023 · Week 3
 FSU -25.5 48 10274760 Q4 BC Q1 31–29
HC @ BC
2023 · Week 2
 BC -10 52 7384559 Q4 HC Q3 28–31
2023 · Week 1
 BC -8 50 07214251 OT NIU Q1
Late over
 27–24
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 6
Q2 33% 4
Q3 8% 1
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 67% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 50% of 12 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over2100% 2
1–32100% 2
4–710% 0
8–101100% 1
15–1710% 0
18–211100% 1
22+425% 1
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.