When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
12 games · 2023 · Arizona State · pick one to list those games
42% went over. Of the 5 overs, 0% had cashed by halftime and 40% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 9% of games.
All 12 games
2023 · Arizona State · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 · Week 13 |
ARIZ -13.5 | 50 | 17456782 | Q3 | ARIZ Q2 | 59–23 |
2023 · Week 12 |
ORE -24.5 | 54.5 | 21424562 | Q4 | ORE Q2 | 49–13 |
2023 · Week 11 |
UCLA -14 | 45.5 | 031024 | U | ASU Q1 | 17–7 |
2023 · Week 10 |
UTAH -10 | 39 | 17273758 | Q4 | UTAH Q1 | 3–55 |
2023 · Week 9 |
WSU -4.5 | 49 | 14455565 | Q3 | ASU Q1 | 27–38 |
2023 · Week 8 |
WASH -28 | 59.5 | 0101022 | U | ASU Q1 | 7–15 |
2023 · Week 6 |
COLO -3 | 58 | 14313151 | U | Push Late cover flip |
27–24 |
2023 · Week 5 |
CAL -13 | 47.5 | 14173045 | U | ASU Q1 | 21–24 |
2023 · Week 4 |
USC -34.5 | 62.5 | 21344870 | Q4 | ASU Q1 | 42–28 |
2023 · Week 3 |
FRES -4 | 48 | 10162629 | U | FRES Q1 | 29–0 |
2023 · Week 2 |
OKST -2.5 | 53.5 | 7253242 | U | OKST Q4 | 27–15 |
 SUU @  ASU2023 · Week 1 |
ASU -34 | 62 | 7283545 | U | SUU Q1 | 21–24 |
ARIZ
ORE
UCLA
UTAH
WSU
WASH
COLO
CAL
USC
FRES
OKSTWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 67% 8
Q2 17% 2
Q3 0% 0
Q4 8% 1
OT 0% 0
Push 8% 1
The team leading at halftime won 75% and covered 58% of 12 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 83% and covered 67% of 12 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 2 | 100% 2 |
| 1–3 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 8–10 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 15–17 | 1 | 100% 1 |
| 18–21 | 1 | 0% 0 |
| 22+ | 6 | 0% 0 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.