When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?
Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.
When did they go over?
919 games · 2025 · pick one to list those games
49% went over. Of the 449 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.
Went over in overtime: 11 games
2025 · newest first
| Game | Line | Total | Points by quarter | Over | Cover settled | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 · Postseason |
USC -4.5 | 56.5 | 327354857 | OT | TCU Q4 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
27–30 |
2025 · Week 11 |
LOU -18.5 | 49.5 | 1430434655 | OT | CAL Q1 Late over |
29–26 |
2025 · Week 9 |
CONN -9.5 | 48.5 | 1038414871 | OT | RICE Q1 Late over |
34–37 |
2025 · Week 9 |
LT -4.5 | 48.5 | 1727344055 | OT | WKU Q1 Late over |
28–27 |
2025 · Week 8 |
TXST -2.5 | 65.5 | 1430335477 | OT | MRSH Q3 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
37–40 |
2025 · Week 6 |
BUFF -9.5 | 53.5 | 1428424861 | OT | EMU Q1 Late over Lead lost |
30–31 |
2025 · Week 5 |
PSU -4.5 | 52.5 | 06133454 | OT | ORE Q1 Late over |
30–24 |
2025 · Week 5 |
GT -11.5 | 53.5 | 320374659 | OT | WAKE Q1 Late over Lead lost |
30–29 |
2025 · Week 5 |
HOU -11.5 | 48.5 | 724274851 | OT | ORST Q1 Late over Lead lost |
27–24 |
2025 · Week 3 |
PITT -6.5 | 54.5 | 010284855 | OT | WVU Q1 Late cover flip Late over Lead lost |
24–31 |
2025 · Week 2 |
UNT -12.5 | 56.5 | 024415463 | OT | WMU Q1 Late over Lead lost |
33–30 |
USC
TCU
CAL
LOU
CONN
RICE
WKU
LT
TXST
MRSH
EMU
BUFF
ORE
PSU
GT
WAKE
HOU
ORST
PITT
WVU
UNT
WMUWhen was the cover settled?
From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 49% 451
Q2 16% 150
Q3 15% 142
Q4 18% 165
OT 1% 8
Push 0% 3
The team leading at halftime won 82% and covered 69% of 860 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 88% and covered 73% of 867 games
Going into the 4th quarter
Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
| Points needed | Games | Went over |
|---|---|---|
| Already over | 147 | 100% 147 |
| 1–3 | 42 | 95% 40 |
| 4–7 | 102 | 90% 92 |
| 8–10 | 79 | 71% 56 |
| 11–14 | 87 | 54% 47 |
| 15–17 | 73 | 40% 29 |
| 18–21 | 102 | 22% 22 |
| 22+ | 287 | 6% 16 |
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.