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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

831 games · 2023 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games831100%By halftime172%In Q311614%In Q428334%In OT121%Stayed under40348%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands9211%Over cashed10312%Leader lost the game567%
52% went over. Of the 428 overs, 4% had cashed by halftime and 31% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 18% of games.

Went over in overtime: 12 games

2023 · newest first
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2023 · Postseason
 MICH -2 46 1423234047 OT MICH OT
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 20–27
2023 · Week 13
 OKST -16.5 55.5 1330375474 OT BYU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 34–40
2023 · Week 12
 WIS -7 36.5 1424313441 OT Push
Late cover flip Late over
 17–24
2023 · Week 12
 EMU -3 39.5 028283457 OT Push
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 27–30
2023 · Week 9
 MIA -18.5 48 713374655 OT UVA Q1
Late over
 26–29
2023 · Week 8
 CLEM -6 45 714243448 OT MIA Q4
Late over Lead lost
 20–28
2023 · Week 8
 SHSU -5.5 42 320274060 OT FIU Q1
Late over
 33–27
2023 · Week 4
 IU -16.5 45.5 010243456 OT AKR Q1
Late over
 27–29
2023 · Week 3
 COLO -23 63 2835355678 OT CSU Q1
Late over Lead lost
 35–43
EWU @ FRES
2023 · Week 2
 FRES -31.5 63.5 1017384865 OT EWU Q1
Late over
 31–34
2023 · Week 2
 UNC -18 58 020375474 OT APP Q1
Late over
 34–40
2023 · Week 1
 BC -8 50 07214251 OT NIU Q1
Late over
 27–24
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 50% 419
Q2 15% 127
Q3 14% 116
Q4 17% 142
OT 0% 3
Push 3% 24
The team leading at halftime won 84% and covered 69% of 766 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 70% of 799 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over133100% 133
1–36598% 64
4–77579% 59
8–107261% 44
11–149366% 61
15–177135% 25
18–217327% 20
22+2499% 22
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.