Curb Event Center Arena · at Belmont · Conference game
Closing line
BEL -4.5✓ BEL covered by 0.5
BEL -4.5✓ BEL covered by 0.5Closing total138.5Over by 38.5
 UNI | This season | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| 15-9 | Record | 21-4 |
| 14-10 | ATS | 14-11 |
| 8-16 | O/U | 14-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UNI 67–71 BEL · ✓ BEL (63%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNI | 45 | 41 | 86 |
| BEL | 45 | 46 | 91 |
1st half: UNI 45, BEL 45 (tied). The model had BEL by 2.2 and a total of 64.3 (actual 90).
Team stats
| UNI | BEL | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-55 49% | Field goals | 31-54 57% |
| 9-24 38% | 3-pointers | 14-30 47% |
| 23-24 96% | Free throws | 15-18 83% |
| 26 5 off | Rebounds | 26 3 off |
| 14 | Assists | 19 |
| 8 | Steals | 7 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 12 | Fast-break points | 0 |
Players
| UNI | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Bond III G | 35 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 7-12 | 3-5 |
| Trey Campbell G | 34 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 6-16 | 2-9 |
| Will Hornseth F | 33 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 4-8 | 0-1 |
| Max Weisbrod G | 25 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 5-9 | 3-7 |
| Ben Schwieger F | 23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kyle Pock F | 22 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-2 |
| Tristan Smith F | 17 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Geon Hutchins G | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Ismael Diouf F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Hunter Jacobson, Chase Courbat, Levi Valdo, Cade Courbat, Redek Born, Jalen Wilson, Marino Dubravcic, RJ Taylor
| BEL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lundblade G | 38 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 9-14 | 7-12 |
| Sam Orme F | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 6-10 | 2-4 |
| Isaiah West G | 23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Jabez Jenkins G | 19 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Drew Scharnowski F | 12 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brigham Rogers F | 23 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Aidan Noyes F | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
| Jack Smiley G | 17 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3-7 | 1-4 |
| Eoin Dillon F | 15 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Graydon Lemke, Cooper Haynes, Jake Dykstra, Keith Robbins, Win Miller, Nic McClain
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBEL -4.5
ModelBEL -3.9
Model edgeUNI +0.6
L BEL covered
Total
Market138.5
Model137.3
Model edgeUnder 1.2
L Over
Projected score
UNI 66.7 · BEL 70.6
UNI 86 · BEL 91
Win probability
BEL 63%
1st half
Spread
BEL -2.2
tied
Total
64.3
90 points
Projected score
UNI 31.1 · BEL 33.3
UNI 45 · BEL 45
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBEL -4.5
no move
CloseBEL -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open134.5
▲ 4
Close138.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
UNI +180 · BEL -218
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BEL -4.5 · unchangedmodel BEL -4
model BEL -4
Opened 134.5 · closed 138.5 · moved 4 upmodel 137.5
model 137.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNI | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| BEL | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
UNI 4–4 BELSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · UNI 5-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2025-26 | BEL 78 @ UNI 65 | UNI -2.5 | BEL W |
| Feb 19, 2024-25 | UNI 82 @ BEL 75 | BEL -0.5 | UNI W |
| Jan 1, 2024-25 | BEL 70 @ UNI 76 | UNI -5.5 | UNI W |
| Mar 8, 2023-24 | BEL 62 vs UNI 67 | UNI +1.5 | UNI W |
| Jan 17, 2023-24 | UNI 83 @ BEL 72 | BEL +1.5 | UNI W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Northern Iowa
24 games played
Straight up
15-9
63% wins
Against the spread
14-10
58% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-16
33% overs · avg −9.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | vs CSUN | W 86-57 | -9.5 | W +19.5 | 153.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 9 | vs SDST | W 65-58 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 150.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 14 | vs FUR | W 70-54 | -9.5 | W +6.5 | 141.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 18 | vs NIU | W 70-57 | -19.5 | L −6.5 | 146.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 22 | @ UCI | W 70-69 | +2.5 | W +3.5 | 138.5 | O 139 |
| Nov 25 | vs LUC | W 72-51 | -8.5 | W +12.5 | 134.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 26 | vs TLSA | L 60-63 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 137.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs WICH | L 69-74 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 135.5 | O 143 |
| Dec 13 | vs OAK | W 75-63 | -8.5 | W +3.5 | 149.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 17 | @ UIC | W 60-54 | -5.5 | W +0.5 | 133.5 | U 114 |
| Dec 22 | @ SMC | L 58-63 | +11.5 | W +6.5 | 132.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 29 | vs VAL | W 58-48 | -8.5 | W +1.5 | 131.5 | U 106 |
| Jan 1 | vs INST | W 75-66 | -10.5 | L −1.5 | 135.5 | O 141 |
| Jan 4 | @ EVAN | W 62-48 | -4.5 | W +9.5 | 131.5 | U 110 |
| Jan 7 | vsBEL | L 65-78 | -2.5 | L −15.5 | 137.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 10 | @ BRAD | L 69-75 | +4.5 | L −1.5 | 131.5 | O 144 |
| Jan 13 | vsUIC | L 61-69 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 128.5 | O 130 |
| Jan 17 | @VAL | L 44-54 | -1.5 | L −11.5 | 130.5 | U 98 |
| Jan 21 | @ ILST | L 54-59 | +6.5 | W +1.5 | 132.5 | U 113 |
| Jan 24 | vs MUR | W 81-76 | +1.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 28 | @ SIU | L 50-65 | -1.5 | L −16.5 | 130.5 | U 115 |
| Jan 31 | vsEVAN | W 71-55 | -11.5 | W +4.5 | 128.5 | U 126 |
| Feb 6 | vsBRAD | W 61-49 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 134.5 | U 110 |
| Feb 9 | @MUR | W 89-60 | +4.5 | W +33.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
6
vsCSUN
CSUNW 86-57
+19.5
9
vsSDST
SDSTW 65-58
−3.5
14
vsFUR
FURW 70-54
+6.5
18
vsNIU
NIUW 70-57
−6.5
22
@UCI
UCIW 70-69
+3.5
25
vsLUC
LUCW 72-51
+12.5
26
vsTLSA
TLSAL 60-63
−5.5
6
vsWICH
WICHL 69-74
−6.5
13
vsOAK
OAKW 75-63
+3.5
17
@UIC
UICW 60-54
+0.5
22
@SMC
SMCL 58-63
+6.5
29
vsVAL
VALW 58-48
+1.5
1
vsINST
INSTW 75-66
−1.5
4
@EVAN
EVANW 62-48
+9.5
7
vsBEL
BELL 65-78
−15.5
10
@BRAD
BRADL 69-75
−1.5
13
vsUIC
UICL 61-69
−14.5
17
@VAL
VALL 44-54
−11.5
21
@ILST
ILSTL 54-59
+1.5
24
vsMUR
MURW 81-76
+6.5
28
@SIU
SIUL 50-65
−16.5
31
vsEVAN
EVANW 71-55
+4.5
6
vsBRAD
BRADW 61-49
+8.5
9
@MUR
MURW 89-60
+33.5
covered 14didn’t cover 10avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
6
vsCSUN
CSUNW 86-57
−10.5
9
vsSDST
SDSTW 65-58
−27.5
14
vsFUR
FURW 70-54
−17.5
18
vsNIU
NIUW 70-57
−19.5
22
@UCI
UCIW 70-69
+0.5
25
vsLUC
LUCW 72-51
−11.5
26
vsTLSA
TLSAL 60-63
−14.5
6
vsWICH
WICHL 69-74
+7.5
13
vsOAK
OAKW 75-63
−11.5
17
@UIC
UICW 60-54
−19.5
22
@SMC
SMCL 58-63
−11.5
29
vsVAL
VALW 58-48
−25.5
1
vsINST
INSTW 75-66
+5.5
4
@EVAN
EVANW 62-48
−21.5
7
vsBEL
BELL 65-78
+5.5
10
@BRAD
BRADL 69-75
+12.5
13
vsUIC
UICL 61-69
+1.5
17
@VAL
VALL 44-54
−32.5
21
@ILST
ILSTL 54-59
−19.5
24
vsMUR
MURW 81-76
+11.5
28
@SIU
SIUL 50-65
−15.5
31
vsEVAN
EVANW 71-55
−2.5
6
vsBRAD
BRADW 61-49
−24.5
9
@MUR
MURW 89-60
+3.5
over 8under 16avg −9.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Belmont
25 games played
Straight up
21-4
84% wins
Against the spread
14-11
56% covers · avg +3.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-11
56% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs AF | W 79-63 | -15.5 | W +0.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 8 | vs TNST | W 87-79 | -13.5 | L −5.5 | 158.5 | O 166 |
| Nov 15 | @ ORU | W 83-60 | -7.5 | W +15.5 | 171.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 19 | vs LIP | W 75-68 | -12.5 | L −5.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 24 | vs SFPA | W 94-57 | -21.5 | W +15.5 | 157.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 26 | vs TOL | W 87-72 | -4.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Nov 30 | @ COFC | W 96-73 | -2.5 | W +20.5 | 152.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 3 | vs RICH | L 76-84 | -6.5 | L −14.5 | 156.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 7 | @ MTSU | W 83-62 | -3.5 | W +17.5 | 153.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 13 | vsUIC | W 87-84 | -12.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 171 |
| Dec 16 | @EVAN | W 83-78 | -8.5 | L −3.5 | 147.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 19 | @UCI | W 84-58 | +1.5 | W +27.5 | 150.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 29 | @INST | L 80-81 | -7.5 | L −8.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 1 | vsBRAD | W 88-78 | -3.5 | W +6.5 | 153.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 4 | vsSIU | L 67-68 | -6.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | U 135 |
| Jan 7 | @UNI | W 78-65 | +2.5 | W +15.5 | 137.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 10 | @ DRKE | W 78-76 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 148.5 | O 154 |
| Jan 13 | vsVAL | W 78-74 | -11.5 | L −7.5 | 146.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 17 | @SIU | W 73-68 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 151.5 | U 141 |
| Jan 24 | vsILST | W 80-69 | -5.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 28 | @VAL | W 78-77 | -5.5 | L −4.5 | 145.5 | O 155 |
| Jan 31 | vsMUR | W 103-86 | -3.5 | W +13.5 | 163.5 | O 189 |
| Feb 3 | vsDRKE | W 103-90 | -9.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 193 |
| Feb 6 | @UIC | W 68-62 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 151.5 | U 130 |
| Feb 9 | @BRAD | L 84-95 | -1.5 | L −12.5 | 152.5 | O 179 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsAF
AFW 79-63
+0.5
8
vsTNST
TNSTW 87-79
−5.5
15
@ORU
ORUW 83-60
+15.5
19
vsLIP
LIPW 75-68
−5.5
24
vsSFPA
SFPAW 94-57
+15.5
26
vsTOL
TOLW 87-72
+10.5
30
@COFC
COFCW 96-73
+20.5
3
vsRICH
RICHL 76-84
−14.5
7
@MTSU
MTSUW 83-62
+17.5
13
vsUIC
UICW 87-84
−9.5
16
@EVAN
EVANW 83-78
−3.5
19
@UCI
UCIW 84-58
+27.5
29
@INST
INSTL 80-81
−8.5
1
vsBRAD
BRADW 88-78
+6.5
4
vsSIU
SIUL 67-68
−7.5
7
@UNI
UNIW 78-65
+15.5
10
@DRKE
DRKEW 78-76
−2.5
13
vsVAL
VALW 78-74
−7.5
17
@SIU
SIUW 73-68
+1.5
24
vsILST
ILSTW 80-69
+5.5
28
@VAL
VALW 78-77
−4.5
31
vsMUR
MURW 103-86
+13.5
3
vsDRKE
DRKEW 103-90
+3.5
6
@UIC
UICW 68-62
+4.5
9
@BRAD
BRADL 84-95
−12.5
covered 14didn’t cover 11avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsAF
AFW 79-63
−2.5
8
vsTNST
TNSTW 87-79
+7.5
15
@ORU
ORUW 83-60
−28.5
19
vsLIP
LIPW 75-68
−15.5
24
vsSFPA
SFPAW 94-57
−6.5
26
vsTOL
TOLW 87-72
−4.5
30
@COFC
COFCW 96-73
+16.5
3
vsRICH
RICHL 76-84
+3.5
7
@MTSU
MTSUW 83-62
−8.5
13
vsUIC
UICW 87-84
+16.5
16
@EVAN
EVANW 83-78
+13.5
19
@UCI
UCIW 84-58
−8.5
29
@INST
INSTL 80-81
+1.5
1
vsBRAD
BRADW 88-78
+12.5
4
vsSIU
SIUL 67-68
−23.5
7
@UNI
UNIW 78-65
+5.5
10
@DRKE
DRKEW 78-76
+5.5
13
vsVAL
VALW 78-74
+5.5
17
@SIU
SIUW 73-68
−10.5
24
vsILST
ILSTW 80-69
−1.5
28
@VAL
VALW 78-77
+9.5
31
vsMUR
MURW 103-86
+25.5
3
vsDRKE
DRKEW 103-90
+38.5
6
@UIC
UICW 68-62
−21.5
9
@BRAD
BRADL 84-95
+26.5
over 14under 11avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Northern Iowa
15-9 overall · 8-6 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Murray St89–60
- Wvs Bradley61–49
- Wvs Evansville71–55
- L@ S Illinois50–65
- Wvs Murray St81–76
3 days since their last game.
Belmont
21-4 overall · 12-3 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Bradley84–95
- W@ UIC68–62
- Wvs Drake103–90
- Wvs Murray St103–86
- W@ Valparaiso78–77
3 days since their last game.