Santa Clara Broncos at Portland Pilots: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 30, 10:00 PM ETChiles Center · at Portland · Conference game

#106SCUSanta Clara92▲ winner

Final

#169PORTPortland85final

Closing lineSCU -13.5✓ PORT covered by 6.5

Closing total157.5Over by 19.5

Season records: Santa Clara and Portland
SCU	This season	PORT
9-4	Record	5-7
7-6	ATS	4-8
7-6	O/U	6-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SCU 85–72 PORT · ✓ SCU (86%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SCU	40	52	92
PORT	44	41	85

1st half: SCU 40, PORT 44 (PORT by 4). The model had SCU by 7.7 and a total of 73.2 (actual 84).

Team stats

SCU		PORT
34-63 54%	Field goals	34-58 59%
10-27 37%	3-pointers	7-20 35%
14-17 82%	Free throws	10-16 63%
28 13 off	Rebounds	25 10 off
21	Assists	23
10	Steals	9
2	Blocks	4
14	Turnovers	15
14	Fouls	18
44	Points in paint	48
8	Fast-break points	11

Players

SCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Elijah Mahi F	32	22	2	1	9-13	2-5
Jake Ensminger G	32	8	5	3	3-7	0-3
Christian Hammond G	30	14	3	5	5-10	1-4
Brenton Knapper G	29	16	1	3	5-10	4-7
Bukky Oboye C	17	6	2	1	3-4	0-0
Bench
Allen Graves F	25	9	10	3	3-6	0-0
Thierry Darlan G	18	14	2	2	5-9	2-4
Sash Gavalyugov G	11	3	0	3	1-3	1-3
KJ Cochran G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Chris Tadjo, Brad Longcor III, Noah Badibanga, Brendan Yarusso, Malachi Douyon, Gehrig Normand, Francis Chukwudebelu, Juan Reyna

PORT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joel Foxwell G	38	20	2	15	7-15	5-10
Cameron Williams F	31	17	5	0	6-8	0-1
Mikah Ballew G	22	5	1	1	2-8	1-5
James O'Donnell F	20	8	2	1	3-3	0-0
Matus Hronsky F	19	4	2	0	2-4	0-2
Bench
Garrett Nuckolls G	21	5	0	3	2-6	1-2
Jermaine Ballisager Webb C	19	10	5	2	4-5	0-0
Dante Censori-Hercules G	18	2	0	1	1-2	0-0
Timo George F	12	14	4	0	7-7	0-0

Did not play: Preston Lee, Carlin Briggs, NaVaughn Long, Kelson Gebbers, Riley Parker, Marchelo Moreira

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SCU -13.5	SCU -12.5	PORT +1.0	W PORT covered
Total	157.5	156.4	Under 1.1	L Over
Projected score	—	SCU 84.5 · PORT 71.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SCU -7.7	PORT -4.0
1H total	73.2	84
1H projected score	SCU 40.4 · PORT 32.8	SCU 40 · PORT 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SCU LLLLW	7-6	54%	2-1	5-5
PORT LWLLL	4-8	33%	4-4	1-7

Venue/role: SCU away, as favorite; PORT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SCU OOUOO	7-6	54%	9-4
PORT OOOUU	6-6	50%	5-7

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SCU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
PORT	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

SCU 5–1 PORTSCU leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · SCU 5-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 6, 2024-25	SCU 97 @ PORT 50	PORT +13.5	SCU W
Feb 29, 2023-24	SCU 75 @ PORT 80	PORT +9.5	PORT W
Jan 20, 2023-24	PORT 86 @ SCU 101	SCU -11.5	SCU W
Feb 18, 2022-23	SCU 103 @ PORT 84	PORT +2.5	SCU W
Mar 6, 2021-22	PORT 67 vs SCU 91	SCU -8.5	SCU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Santa Clara

13 games played

Straight up

9-4

69% wins

Against the spread

7-6

54% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-6

54% overs · avg +3.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-469%

W W W W W L W W L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-654%

W W W L W W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-654%

U U O U U U O O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsMCN	W 79-67	-6.5	W +5.5	151.5	U 146
Nov 10	@XAV	W 87-68	+3.5	W +22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 15	vsNEV	W 98-83	-6.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 181
Nov 18	vsIDST	W 64-55	-14.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 119
Nov 21	vsUL	W 80-43	-19.5	W +17.5	140.5	U 123
Nov 27	vsSLU	L 70-71	+1.5	W +0.5	158.5	U 141
Nov 28	vsMINN	W 86-75	-5.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 161
Dec 3	vsUTU	W 90-80	-20.5	L −10.5	144.5	O 170
Dec 6	@UNM	L 71-98	+1.5	L −25.5	153.5	O 169
Dec 13	vsASU	L 79-82	-1.5	L −4.5	154.5	O 161
Dec 17	vsUNT	W 63-60	-12.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 123
Dec 20	vsLUC	L 78-80	-15.5	L −17.5	151.5	O 158
Dec 28	@ORST	W 102-64	-7.5	W +30.5	150.5	O 166

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

+5.5

XAV

W 87-68

+22.5

NEV

W 98-83

+8.5

IDST

W 64-55

−5.5

W 80-43

+17.5

SLU

L 70-71

+0.5

MINN

W 86-75

+5.5

UTU

W 90-80

−10.5

UNM

L 71-98

−25.5

ASU

L 79-82

−4.5

UNT

W 63-60

−9.5

LUC

L 78-80

−17.5

ORST

W 102-64

+30.5

covered 7didn’t cover 6avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MCN

W 79-67

−5.5

XAV

W 87-68

−0.5

NEV

W 98-83

+36.5

IDST

W 64-55

−22.5

W 80-43

−17.5

SLU

L 70-71

−17.5

MINN

W 86-75

+22.5

UTU

W 90-80

+25.5

UNM

L 71-98

+15.5

ASU

L 79-82

+6.5

UNT

W 63-60

−16.5

LUC

L 78-80

+6.5

ORST

W 102-64

+15.5

over 7under 6avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Portland

12 games played

Straight up

5-7

42% wins

Against the spread

4-8

33% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-6

50% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-742%

W W L W L L W L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-833%

L W L W L L W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-650%

U U U O O U O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsUAPB	W 83-74	-12.5	L −3.5	164.5	U 157
Nov 9	vsUCD	W 67-63	-1.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 130
Nov 15	@WYO	L 56-93	+11.5	L −25.5	160.5	U 149
Nov 21	vsCSUF	W 103-85	-6.5	W +11.5	164.5	O 188
Nov 22	vsUNCO	L 80-86	+3.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 166
Nov 23	vsSTMN	L 66-76	+5.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 142
Nov 26	vsLBSU	W 93-73	-5.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 166
Dec 1	@STAN	L 72-94	+19.5	L −2.5	156.5	O 166
Dec 14	vsKENT	W 88-78	+7.5	W +17.5	160.5	O 166
Dec 17	@ORE	L 69-94	+19.5	L −5.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 22	@UCSB	L 61-79	+9.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 140
Dec 28	vsWSU	L 62-67	+3.5	L −1.5	152.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAPB

W 83-74

−3.5

UCD

W 67-63

+2.5

WYO

L 56-93

−25.5

CSUF

W 103-85

+11.5

UNCO

L 80-86

−2.5

STMN

L 66-76

−4.5

LBSU

W 93-73

+14.5

STAN

L 72-94

−2.5

KENT

W 88-78

+17.5

ORE

L 69-94

−5.5

UCSB

L 61-79

−8.5

WSU

L 62-67

−1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 8avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAPB

W 83-74

−7.5

UCD

W 67-63

−21.5

WYO

L 56-93

−11.5

CSUF

W 103-85

+23.5

UNCO

L 80-86

+8.5

STMN

L 66-76

−13.5

LBSU

W 93-73

+17.5

STAN

L 72-94

+9.5

KENT

W 88-78

+5.5

ORE

L 69-94

+8.5

UCSB

L 61-79

−7.5

WSU

L 62-67

−23.5

over 6under 6avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Santa Clara @ Portland

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Santa Clara

Portland

Santa Clara

Portland