Foster Pavilion · at Baylor · Conference game
Closing line
ISU -3.5✓ ISU covered by 6.5
ISU -3.5✓ ISU covered by 6.5Closing total155.5Under by 25.5
| ISU | This season | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| 14-0 | Record | 9-3 |
| 8-6 | ATS | 6-6 |
| 8-6 | O/U | 9-3 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ISU 84–79 BAY · ✓ ISU (69%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISU | 25 | 45 | 70 |
| BAY | 24 | 36 | 60 |
1st half: ISU 25, BAY 24 (ISU by 1). The model had ISU by 3.5 and a total of 76.3 (actual 49).
Team stats
| ISU | BAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-64 41% | Field goals | 19-62 31% |
| 6-19 32% | 3-pointers | 5-27 19% |
| 12-20 60% | Free throws | 17-29 59% |
| 44 16 off | Rebounds | 47 21 off |
| 12 | Assists | 8 |
| 8 | Steals | 5 |
| 4 | Blocks | 7 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 25 | Fouls | 22 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 3 |
Players
| ISU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Jefferson F | 38 | 19 | 17 | 3 | 7-17 | 1-3 |
| Killyan Toure G | 34 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 5-14 | 1-4 |
| Tamin Lipsey G | 26 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 8-12 | 2-3 |
| Milan Momcilovic F | 24 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| Blake Buchanan F | 23 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Nate Heise G | 32 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 2-7 | 2-4 |
| Jamarion Batemon G | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Dominykas Pleta F | 8 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Dominick Nelson G | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Anthony Rise, Mason Williams, Cade Kelderman, Eric Mulder, Xzavion Mitchell
| BAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obi Agbim G | 36 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2-14 | 1-10 |
| Cameron Carr G | 33 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 5-13 | 2-6 |
| Tounde Yessoufou G | 32 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 4-13 | 1-5 |
| Michael Rataj G | 23 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1-7 | 1-4 |
| Dan Skillings Jr. G | 20 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isaac Williams IV G | 21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-2 |
| Caden Powell C | 19 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| James Nnaji C | 16 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Drew Perry, Mayo Soyoye, Maikcol Perez, Andre Iguodala II, Juslin Bodo Bodo, Will Kuykendall, James Goodis, JJ White
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketISU -3.5
ModelISU -5.6
Model edgeISU +2.1
W ISU covered
Total
Market155.5
Model162.8
Model edgeOver 7.3
L Under
Projected score
ISU 84.2 · BAY 78.6
ISU 70 · BAY 60
Win probability
ISU 69%
1st half
Spread
ISU -3.5
ISU -1.0
Total
76.3
49 points
Projected score
ISU 39.9 · BAY 36.4
ISU 25 · BAY 24
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenISU -4.5
1 → BAY
CloseISU -3.5
1 pt toward BAY
Total
Open158.5
▼ 3
Close155.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
ISU -198 · BAY +164
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ISU -4.5 · closed ISU -3.5 · moved 1 toward BAYmodel ISU -5.5
model ISU -5.5
Opened 158.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 3 downmodel 163
model 163
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISU | 10-0 100% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| BAY | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
ISU 5–3 BAYISU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · ISU has won the last 2 meetings · ISU 8-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024-25 | BAY 55 @ ISU 74 | ISU -7.5 | ISU W |
| Mar 15, 2023-24 | BAY 62 vs ISU 76 | ISU -1.5 | ISU W |
| Feb 3, 2023-24 | ISU 68 @ BAY 70 | BAY -4.5 | ISU W |
| Mar 9, 2022-23 | ISU 78 vs BAY 72 | BAY -4.5 | ISU W |
| Mar 4, 2022-23 | ISU 73 @ BAY 58 | BAY -7.5 | ISU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Iowa State
14 games played
Straight up
14-0
100% wins
Against the spread
8-6
57% covers · avg +4.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-6
57% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs FDU | W 88-50 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 147.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 6 | vs GRAM | W 102-62 | -33.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 10 | vs MSST | W 96-80 | -5.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 17 | vs STO | W 96-57 | -40.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 153 |
| Nov 24 | vs SJU | W 83-82 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 25 | vs CREI | W 78-60 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 152.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 26 | vs SYR | W 95-64 | -10.5 | W +20.5 | 145.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 3 | vs ALCN | W 132-68 | -42.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | O 200 |
| Dec 6 | @ PUR | W 81-58 | +4.5 | W +27.5 | 154.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 11 | vs IOWA | W 66-62 | -11.5 | L −7.5 | 141.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 14 | vs EIU | W 78-53 | -43.5 | L −18.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 21 | vs LBSU | W 91-60 | -37.5 | L −6.5 | 149.5 | O 151 |
| Dec 29 | vs HCU | W 89-61 | -35.5 | L −7.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 2 | vs WVU | W 80-59 | -16.5 | W +4.5 | 142.5 | U 139 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsFDU
FDUW 88-50
+0.5
6
vsGRAM
GRAMW 102-62
+6.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 96-80
+10.5
17
vsSTO
STOW 96-57
−1.5
24
vsSJU
SJUW 83-82
−1.5
25
vsCREI
CREIW 78-60
+8.5
26
vsSYR
SYRW 95-64
+20.5
3
vsALCN
ALCNW 132-68
+21.5
6
@PUR
PURW 81-58
+27.5
11
vsIOWA
IOWAW 66-62
−7.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 78-53
−18.5
21
vsLBSU
LBSUW 91-60
−6.5
29
vsHCU
HCUW 89-61
−7.5
2
vsWVU
WVUW 80-59
+4.5
covered 8didn’t cover 6avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFDU
FDUW 88-50
−9.5
6
vsGRAM
GRAMW 102-62
+19.5
10
vsMSST
MSSTW 96-80
+25.5
17
vsSTO
STOW 96-57
+6.5
24
vsSJU
SJUW 83-82
+6.5
25
vsCREI
CREIW 78-60
−14.5
26
vsSYR
SYRW 95-64
+13.5
3
vsALCN
ALCNW 132-68
+48.5
6
@PUR
PURW 81-58
−15.5
11
vsIOWA
IOWAW 66-62
−13.5
14
vsEIU
EIUW 78-53
−13.5
21
vsLBSU
LBSUW 91-60
+1.5
29
vsHCU
HCUW 89-61
+4.5
2
vsWVU
WVUW 80-59
−3.5
over 8under 6avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Baylor
12 games played
Straight up
9-3
75% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-3
75% overs · avg +10 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs RGV | W 96-81 | -24.5 | L −9.5 | 154.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 9 | vs WASH | W 78-69 | -6.5 | W +2.5 | 156.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 14 | vs TAR | W 94-81 | -23.5 | L −10.5 | 149.5 | O 175 |
| Nov 24 | vsCREI | W 81-74 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 25 | vsSJU | L 81-96 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 159.5 | O 177 |
| Nov 26 | vs SDSU | W 91-81 | -2.5 | W +7.5 | 148.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 2 | vs SAC | W 110-88 | -29.5 | L −7.5 | 158.5 | O 198 |
| Dec 6 | @ MEM | L 71-78 | -3.5 | L −10.5 | 158.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs NORF | W 97-67 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 19 | vsALCN | W 113-56 | -35.5 | W +21.5 | 160.5 | O 169 |
| Dec 21 | vs SOU | W 111-67 | -26.5 | W +17.5 | 169.5 | O 178 |
| Jan 3 | @ TCU | L 63-69 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 154.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
−9.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
+2.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
−10.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+3.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
−9.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+7.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
−7.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−10.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+3.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+21.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+17.5
3
@TCU
TCUL 63-69
−3.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsRGV
RGVW 96-81
+22.5
9
vsWASH
WASHW 78-69
−9.5
14
vsTAR
TARW 94-81
+25.5
24
vsCREI
CREIW 81-74
+0.5
25
vsSJU
SJUL 81-96
+17.5
26
vsSDSU
SDSUW 91-81
+23.5
2
vsSAC
SACW 110-88
+39.5
6
@MEM
MEML 71-78
−9.5
10
vsNORF
NORFW 97-67
+15.5
19
vsALCN
ALCNW 113-56
+8.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 111-67
+8.5
3
@TCU
TCUL 63-69
−22.5
over 9under 3avg +10 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Iowa State
14-0 overall · 1-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs West Virginia80–59
- Wvs Hou Christian89–61
- Wvs Long Beach St91–60
- Wvs E Illinois78–53
- Wvs Iowa66–62
5 days since their last game.
Baylor
9-3 overall · 0-1 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ TCU63–69
- Wvs Southern111–67
- Wvs Alcorn St113–56
- Wvs Norfolk St97–67
- L@ Memphis71–78
4 days since their last game.