Allen Fieldhouse · at Kansas · Conference game
Closing line
KU -6.5✓ TCU covered by 2.5
KU -6.5✓ TCU covered by 2.5Closing total143.5Over by 60.5
 TCU | This season | KU |
|---|---|---|
| 11-3 | Record | 10-4 |
| 8-6 | ATS | 9-5 |
| 5-9 | O/U | 4-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TCU 67–74 KU · ✓ KU (72%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 36 | 51 | 13 | 100 |
| KU | 41 | 46 | 17 | 104 |
1st half: TCU 36, KU 41 (KU by 5). The model had KU by 3.9 and a total of 66.3 (actual 77).
Team stats
| TCU | KU | |
|---|---|---|
| 35-75 47% | Field goals | 33-63 52% |
| 15-35 43% | 3-pointers | 8-20 40% |
| 15-24 63% | Free throws | 30-40 75% |
| 43 16 off | Rebounds | 38 9 off |
| 18 | Assists | 13 |
| 7 | Steals | 8 |
| 7 | Blocks | 5 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 25 | Fouls | 19 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 46 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| TCU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Harding G | 41 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 2-9 | 2-7 |
| Liutauras Lelevicius F | 39 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 7-9 | 5-7 |
| David Punch F | 34 | 20 | 9 | 1 | 8-15 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Pierre G | 32 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 6-12 | 4-8 |
| Xavier Edmonds F | 20 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 5-10 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Micah Robinson G | 29 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 5-12 | 2-5 |
| Tanner Toolson G | 23 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Jace Posey G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Kayden Edwards, Adam Stewart, Vianney Salatchoum, Drew McElroy, Ashton Simmons, RJ Jones, Malick Diallo, Trey Stuart
| KU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Council Jr. G | 41 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 5-15 | 1-3 |
| Flory Bidunga F | 41 | 16 | 9 | 2 | 6-7 | 0-0 |
| Tre White G | 38 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 8-14 | 3-6 |
| Darryn Peterson G | 32 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 8-18 | 3-8 |
| Bryson Tiller F | 20 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Elmarko Jackson G | 23 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jamari McDowell G | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Kohl Rosario G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jayden Dawson G | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Samis Calderon F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Corbin Allen, Nginyu Ngala, Paul Mbiya, Will Thengvall, Justin Cross, Wilder Evers
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketKU -6.5
ModelKU -6.7
Model edgeKU +0.2
L TCU covered
Total
Market143.5
Model141.6
Model edgeUnder 1.9
L Over
Projected score
TCU 67.4 · KU 74.1
TCU 100 · KU 104
Win probability
KU 72%
1st half
Spread
KU -3.9
KU -5.0
Total
66.3
77 points
Projected score
TCU 31.2 · KU 35.1
TCU 36 · KU 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenKU -7.5
1 → TCU
CloseKU -6.5
1 pt toward TCU
Total
Open137.5
▲ 6
Close143.5
Up 6 since the open
Moneyline
TCU +240 · KU -298
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened KU -7.5 · closed KU -6.5 · moved 1 toward TCUmodel KU -6.5 matches the line
model KU -6.5 = line ✓
Opened 137.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 6 upmodel 141.5
model 141.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 9-1 90% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| KU | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22
TCU 2–5 KUKU leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · KU has won the last 3 meetings · TCU 4-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2024-25 | KU 74 @ TCU 61 | TCU +5.5 | KU W |
| Jan 6, 2023-24 | TCU 81 @ KU 83 | KU -8.5 | TCU W |
| Feb 20, 2022-23 | KU 63 @ TCU 58 | TCU -2.5 | KU W |
| Jan 21, 2022-23 | TCU 83 @ KU 60 | KU -6.5 | TCU W |
| Mar 11, 2021-22 | TCU 62 @ KU 75 | KU -8 | KU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
TCU
14 games played
Straight up
11-3
79% wins
Against the spread
8-6
57% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-9
36% overs · avg −5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NOLA | L 74-78 | -21.5 | L −25.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 6 | vs SFPA | W 104-63 | -27.5 | W +13.5 | 153.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 10 | vs LAM | W 78-65 | -18.5 | L −5.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 14 | vs MICH | L 63-67 | +7.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 19 | vs KC | W 81-45 | -23.5 | W +12.5 | 150.5 | U 126 |
| Nov 27 | vs FLA | W 84-80 | +11.5 | W +15.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs WIS | W 74-63 | +5.5 | W +16.5 | 157.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 5 | vs ND | L 85-87 | -6.5 | L −8.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 7 | @ UNT | W 65-55 | -9.5 | W +0.5 | 135.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 15 | vs UIW | W 69-65 | -19.5 | L −15.5 | 143.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 18 | vs ORU | W 72-53 | -23.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 21 | vs FAMU | W 80-56 | -29.5 | L −5.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Dec 29 | vs JKST | W 115-64 | -30.5 | W +20.5 | 143.5 | O 179 |
| Jan 3 | vs BAY | W 69-63 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 154.5 | U 132 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNOLA
NOLAL 74-78
−25.5
6
vsSFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 78-65
−5.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 63-67
+3.5
19
vsKC
KCW 81-45
+12.5
27
vsFLA
FLAW 84-80
+15.5
28
vsWIS
WISW 74-63
+16.5
5
vsND
NDL 85-87
−8.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 65-55
+0.5
15
vsUIW
UIWW 69-65
−15.5
18
vsORU
ORUW 72-53
−4.5
21
vsFAMU
FAMUW 80-56
−5.5
29
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-64
+20.5
3
vsBAY
BAYW 69-63
+3.5
covered 8didn’t cover 6avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNOLA
NOLAL 74-78
+2.5
6
vsSFPA
SFPAW 104-63
+13.5
10
vsLAM
LAMW 78-65
−4.5
14
vsMICH
MICHL 63-67
−34.5
19
vsKC
KCW 81-45
−24.5
27
vsFLA
FLAW 84-80
+8.5
28
vsWIS
WISW 74-63
−20.5
5
vsND
NDL 85-87
+30.5
7
@UNT
UNTW 65-55
−15.5
15
vsUIW
UIWW 69-65
−9.5
18
vsORU
ORUW 72-53
−22.5
21
vsFAMU
FAMUW 80-56
−6.5
29
vsJKST
JKSTW 115-64
+35.5
3
vsBAY
BAYW 69-63
−22.5
over 5under 9avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Kansas
14 games played
Straight up
10-4
71% wins
Against the spread
9-5
64% covers · avg +3.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-10
29% overs · avg −6.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs GB | W 94-51 | -30.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 7 | @ UNC | L 74-87 | +2.5 | L −10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs AMCC | W 77-46 | -25.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 15 | vs PRIN | W 76-57 | -22.5 | L −3.5 | 144.5 | U 133 |
| Nov 18 | vs DUKE | L 66-78 | +10.5 | L −1.5 | 149.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 24 | vsND | W 71-61 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 25 | vs SYR | W 71-60 | -4.5 | W +6.5 | 144.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 26 | vs TENN | W 81-76 | +7.5 | W +12.5 | 140.5 | O 157 |
| Dec 2 | vs CONN | L 56-61 | +3.5 | L −1.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 7 | vs MIZ | W 80-60 | -5.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 13 | @ NCSU | W 77-76 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 16 | vs TOW | W 73-49 | -14.5 | W +9.5 | 137.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 22 | vs DAV | W 90-61 | -14.5 | W +14.5 | 139.5 | O 151 |
| Jan 3 | @ UCF | L 75-81 | -4.5 | L −10.5 | 157.5 | U 156 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsGB
GBW 94-51
+12.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 74-87
−10.5
11
vsAMCC
AMCCW 77-46
+5.5
15
vsPRIN
PRINW 76-57
−3.5
18
vsDUKE
DUKEL 66-78
−1.5
24
vsND
NDW 71-61
+4.5
25
vsSYR
SYRW 71-60
+6.5
26
vsTENN
TENNW 81-76
+12.5
2
vsCONN
CONNL 56-61
−1.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZW 80-60
+14.5
13
@NCSU
NCSUW 77-76
+2.5
16
vsTOW
TOWW 73-49
+9.5
22
vsDAV
DAVW 90-61
+14.5
3
@UCF
UCFL 75-81
−10.5
covered 9didn’t cover 5avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsGB
GBW 94-51
−7.5
7
@UNC
UNCL 74-87
+1.5
11
vsAMCC
AMCCW 77-46
−22.5
15
vsPRIN
PRINW 76-57
−11.5
18
vsDUKE
DUKEL 66-78
−5.5
24
vsND
NDW 71-61
−11.5
25
vsSYR
SYRW 71-60
−13.5
26
vsTENN
TENNW 81-76
+16.5
2
vsCONN
CONNL 56-61
−24.5
7
vsMIZ
MIZW 80-60
−10.5
13
@NCSU
NCSUW 77-76
+4.5
16
vsTOW
TOWW 73-49
−15.5
22
vsDAV
DAVW 90-61
+11.5
3
@UCF
UCFL 75-81
−1.5
over 4under 10avg −6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
TCU
11-3 overall · 1-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Baylor69–63
- Wvs Jackson St115–64
- Wvs Florida A&M80–56
- Wvs Oral Roberts72–53
- Wvs Incarnate Word69–65
3 days since their last game.
Kansas
10-4 overall · 0-1 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ UCF75–81
- Wvs Davidson90–61
- Wvs Towson73–49
- W@ NC State77–76
- Wvs Missouri80–60
3 days since their last game.