Fifth Third Arena · at Cincinnati · Conference game
Closing line
HOU -4.5✓ HOU covered by 2.5
HOU -4.5✓ HOU covered by 2.5Closing total135.5Under by 8.5
| HOU | This season | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12-1 | Record | 8-5 |
| 6-7 | ATS | 5-8 |
| 7-6 | O/U | 4-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: HOU 70–62 CIN · ✓ HOU (76%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 28 | 39 | 67 |
| CIN | 33 | 27 | 60 |
1st half: HOU 28, CIN 33 (CIN by 5). The model had HOU by 5.0 and a total of 62.0 (actual 61).
Team stats
| HOU | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-63 41% | Field goals | 21-49 43% |
| 8-25 32% | 3-pointers | 6-20 30% |
| 7-9 78% | Free throws | 12-16 75% |
| 34 12 off | Rebounds | 30 7 off |
| 11 | Assists | 12 |
| 9 | Steals | 2 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 15 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 28 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| HOU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kingston Flemings G | 38 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 7-18 | 2-5 |
| Milos Uzan G | 32 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 7-14 | 4-7 |
| Emanuel Sharp G | 28 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0-9 | 0-5 |
| Joseph Tugler F | 26 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Chris Cenac Jr. F | 24 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isiah Harwell G | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Ramon Walker Jr. G | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Kalifa Sakho F | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Mercy Miller G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Chase McCarty F | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Cedric Lath, Bryce Jackson, Jacob McFarland, Kordel Jefferson
| CIN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jizzle James G | 36 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1-7 | 0-3 |
| Day Day Thomas G | 32 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 4-10 | 2-5 |
| Baba Miller F | 32 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 4-7 | 0-2 |
| Moustapha Thiam C | 28 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 6-7 | 1-1 |
| Sencire Harris G | 18 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-7 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jalen Celestine G | 26 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-4 |
| Halvine Dzellat C | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Shon Abaev F | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Kerr Kriisa G | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Grant Darbyshire, Tyler McKinley, Keyshuan Tillery, Jalen Haynes, Bryson Buckingham, Lucas Atauri, Jordi Rodriguez-Stegemeijer
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketHOU -4.5
ModelHOU -8.1
Model edgeHOU +3.6
W HOU covered
Total
Market135.5
Model132.3
Model edgeUnder 3.2
W Under
Projected score
HOU 70.2 · CIN 62.1
HOU 67 · CIN 60
Win probability
HOU 76%
1st half
Spread
HOU -5.0
CIN -5.0
Total
62.0
61 points
Projected score
HOU 33.5 · CIN 28.5
HOU 28 · CIN 33
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHOU -11.5
7 → CIN
CloseHOU -4.5
7 pts toward CIN
Total
Open131.5
▲ 4
Close135.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
HOU -218 · CIN +180
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HOU -11.5 · closed HOU -4.5 · moved 7 toward CINmodel HOU -8
model HOU -8
Opened 131.5 · closed 135.5 · moved 4 upmodel 132.5
model 132.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
| CIN | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
HOU 9–0 CINHOU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · HOU has won the last 9 meetings · HOU 4-3-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | CIN 64 @ HOU 73 | HOU -13.5 | CIN W |
| Feb 27, 2023-24 | CIN 59 @ HOU 67 | HOU -13.5 | CIN W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | HOU 67 @ CIN 62 | CIN +5 | P |
| Mar 11, 2022-23 | CIN 48 vs HOU 69 | HOU -9.5 | HOU W |
| Jan 28, 2022-23 | CIN 69 @ HOU 75 | HOU -14.5 | CIN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Houston
13 games played
Straight up
12-1
92% wins
Against the spread
6-7
46% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-6
54% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs LEH | W 75-57 | -36.5 | L −18.5 | 136.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 8 | vs TOW | W 65-48 | -26.5 | L −9.5 | 130.5 | U 113 |
| Nov 12 | vs OAK | W 78-45 | -30.5 | W +2.5 | 138.5 | U 123 |
| Nov 16 | vs AUB | W 73-72 | -7.5 | L −6.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 20 | vs RID | W 91-45 | -40.5 | W +5.5 | 134.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 24 | vs SYR | W 78-74 | -14.5 | L −10.5 | 140.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs TENN | L 73-76 | -2.5 | L −5.5 | 136.5 | O 149 |
| Nov 26 | vs ND | W 66-56 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | U 122 |
| Dec 6 | vs FSU | W 82-67 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 10 | vs JKST | W 80-38 | -40.5 | W +1.5 | 137.5 | U 118 |
| Dec 13 | vs NOLA | W 99-57 | -32.5 | W +9.5 | 138.5 | O 156 |
| Dec 20 | vs ARK | W 94-85 | -5.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 29 | vs MTSU | W 69-60 | -25.5 | L −16.5 | 138.5 | U 129 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−18.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−9.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
+2.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
−6.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+5.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
−10.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
−5.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−1.5
6
vsFSU
FSUW 82-67
+2.5
10
vsJKST
JKSTW 80-38
+1.5
13
vsNOLA
NOLAW 99-57
+9.5
20
vsARK
ARKW 94-85
+3.5
29
vsMTSU
MTSUW 69-60
−16.5
covered 6didn’t cover 7avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLEH
LEHW 75-57
−4.5
8
vsTOW
TOWW 65-48
−17.5
12
vsOAK
OAKW 78-45
−15.5
16
vsAUB
AUBW 73-72
+4.5
20
vsRID
RIDW 91-45
+1.5
24
vsSYR
SYRW 78-74
+11.5
25
vsTENN
TENNL 73-76
+12.5
26
vsND
NDW 66-56
−10.5
6
vsFSU
FSUW 82-67
+0.5
10
vsJKST
JKSTW 80-38
−19.5
13
vsNOLA
NOLAW 99-57
+17.5
20
vsARK
ARKW 94-85
+32.5
29
vsMTSU
MTSUW 69-60
−9.5
over 7under 6avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cincinnati
13 games played
Straight up
8-5
62% wins
Against the spread
5-8
38% covers · avg −3.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-9
31% overs · avg −6.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs WCU | W 94-63 | -22.5 | W +8.5 | 143.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 7 | vs GAST | W 74-64 | -29.5 | L −19.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 11 | vs DAY | W 74-62 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 16 | vs MSM | W 72-55 | -25.5 | L −8.5 | 145.5 | U 127 |
| Nov 21 | vs LOU | L 64-74 | +8.5 | L −1.5 | 163.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 24 | vs NJIT | W 94-67 | -34.5 | L −7.5 | 141.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 26 | vs EMU | L 56-64 | -22.5 | L −30.5 | 146.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 1 | vs TAR | W 76-58 | -24.5 | L −6.5 | 142.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 5 | @ XAV | L 74-79 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 13 | vs UGA | L 65-84 | +5.5 | L −13.5 | 157.5 | U 149 |
| Dec 17 | vs ALST | W 88-51 | -21.5 | W +15.5 | 145.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | vs CLEM | L 65-68 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 140.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 29 | vs LIP | W 89-62 | -13.5 | W +13.5 | 150.5 | O 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsWCU
WCUW 94-63
+8.5
7
vsGAST
GASTW 74-64
−19.5
11
vsDAY
DAYW 74-62
+6.5
16
vsMSM
MSMW 72-55
−8.5
21
vsLOU
LOUL 64-74
−1.5
24
vsNJIT
NJITW 94-67
−7.5
26
vsEMU
EMUL 56-64
−30.5
1
vsTAR
TARW 76-58
−6.5
5
@XAV
XAVL 74-79
−6.5
13
vsUGA
UGAL 65-84
−13.5
17
vsALST
ALSTW 88-51
+15.5
21
vsCLEM
CLEML 65-68
+0.5
29
vsLIP
LIPW 89-62
+13.5
covered 5didn’t cover 8avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWCU
WCUW 94-63
+13.5
7
vsGAST
GASTW 74-64
−13.5
11
vsDAY
DAYW 74-62
−11.5
16
vsMSM
MSMW 72-55
−18.5
21
vsLOU
LOUL 64-74
−25.5
24
vsNJIT
NJITW 94-67
+19.5
26
vsEMU
EMUL 56-64
−26.5
1
vsTAR
TARW 76-58
−8.5
5
@XAV
XAVL 74-79
+5.5
13
vsUGA
UGAL 65-84
−8.5
17
vsALST
ALSTW 88-51
−6.5
21
vsCLEM
CLEML 65-68
−7.5
29
vsLIP
LIPW 89-62
+0.5
over 4under 9avg −6.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Houston
12-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs MTSU69–60
- Wvs Arkansas94–85
- Wvs LSU N Orleans99–57
- Wvs Jackson St80–38
- Wvs Florida St82–67
5 days since their last game.
Cincinnati
8-5 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big 12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Lipscomb89–62
- Lvs Clemson65–68
- Wvs Alabama St88–51
- Lvs Georgia65–84
- L@ Xavier74–79
5 days since their last game.