The Barn by Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota · at Minnesota · Conference game
Closing line
IOWA -4.5✓ MINN covered by 7.5
IOWA -4.5✓ MINN covered by 7.5Closing total130.5Over by 6.5
| IOWA | This season | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2 | Record | 9-5 |
| 11-3 | ATS | 5-9 |
| 7-7 | O/U | 3-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: IOWA 72–65 MINN · ✗ IOWA (71%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA | 24 | 43 | 67 |
| MINN | 31 | 39 | 70 |
1st half: IOWA 24, MINN 31 (MINN by 7). The model had IOWA by 3.9 and a total of 64.2 (actual 55).
Team stats
| IOWA | MINN | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-63 40% | Field goals | 22-47 47% |
| 7-26 27% | 3-pointers | 5-20 25% |
| 10-13 77% | Free throws | 21-28 75% |
| 39 14 off | Rebounds | 28 3 off |
| 12 | Assists | 15 |
| 5 | Steals | 10 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 22 | Fouls | 17 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 11 |
Players
| IOWA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Koch F | 39 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 4-6 | 1-3 |
| Bennett Stirtz G | 29 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 6-17 | 2-10 |
| Kael Combs G | 29 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 6-10 | 1-1 |
| Cam Manyawu F | 19 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Tavion Banks G | 17 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1-6 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isaia Howard G | 28 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 5-13 | 0-4 |
| Tate Sage G | 21 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Alvaro Folgueiras F | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Brendan Hausen G | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
Did not play: Jacob Koch, Joey Matteoni, Peyton McCollum, Trey Thompson, Trevin Jirak
| MINN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Langston Reynolds G | 39 | 22 | 5 | 4 | 9-13 | 0-1 |
| Isaac Asuma G | 36 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-5 |
| Cade Tyson G | 33 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 5-12 | 2-5 |
| Jaylen Crocker-Johnson F | 31 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3-8 | 1-5 |
| Bobby Durkin F | 30 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Grayson Grove F | 16 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Kai Shinholster G | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Nehemiah Turner, BJ Omot, Chance Stephens, Chansey Willis Jr., Robert Vaihola, Max Lorenson, Maximus Gizzi, RJ Spencer
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketIOWA -4.5
ModelIOWA -6.3
Model edgeIOWA +1.8
L MINN covered
Total
Market130.5
Model137.0
Model edgeOver 6.5
W Over
Projected score
IOWA 71.6 · MINN 65.4
IOWA 67 · MINN 70
Win probability
IOWA 71%
1st half
Spread
IOWA -3.9
MINN -7.0
Total
64.2
55 points
Projected score
IOWA 34 · MINN 30.2
IOWA 24 · MINN 31
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenIOWA -6.5
2 → MINN
CloseIOWA -4.5
2 pts toward MINN
Total
Open131.5
▼ 1
Close130.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
IOWA -230 · MINN +190
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened IOWA -6.5 · closed IOWA -4.5 · moved 2 toward MINNmodel IOWA -6.5
model IOWA -6.5
Opened 131.5 · closed 130.5 · moved 1 downmodel 137
model 137
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA | 8-2 80% | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% |
| MINN | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
IOWA 5–1 MINNIOWA leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · IOWA 2-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2024-25 | MINN 72 @ IOWA 67 | IOWA -8.5 | MINN W |
| Feb 11, 2023-24 | MINN 85 @ IOWA 90 | IOWA -7.5 | MINN W |
| Jan 15, 2023-24 | IOWA 86 @ MINN 77 | MINN -3.5 | IOWA W |
| Feb 12, 2022-23 | IOWA 68 @ MINN 56 | MINN +12.5 | MINN W |
| Feb 6, 2021-22 | MINN 59 @ IOWA 71 | IOWA -13 | MINN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Iowa
14 games played
Straight up
12-2
86% wins
Against the spread
11-3
79% covers · avg +4.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-7
50% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs RMU | W 101-69 | -22.5 | W +9.5 | 136.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 7 | vs WIU | W 77-58 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 145.5 | U 135 |
| Nov 14 | vs XAV | W 81-62 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 143.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 18 | vs SEMO | W 99-70 | -23.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | O 169 |
| Nov 20 | vs CHST | W 93-54 | -31.5 | W +7.5 | 142.5 | O 147 |
| Nov 25 | vs MISS | W 74-69 | -4.5 | W +0.5 | 140.5 | O 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs GCU | W 59-46 | -8.5 | W +4.5 | 143.5 | U 105 |
| Dec 2 | @ MSU | L 52-71 | +5.5 | L −13.5 | 133.5 | U 123 |
| Dec 6 | vs MD | W 83-64 | -10.5 | W +8.5 | 137.5 | O 147 |
| Dec 11 | @ ISU | L 62-66 | +11.5 | W +7.5 | 141.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 14 | vs WMU | W 91-51 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 20 | vs BUCK | W 94-39 | -25.5 | W +29.5 | 133.5 | U 133 |
| Dec 29 | vs UML | W 90-62 | -33.5 | L −5.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 3 | vs UCLA | W 74-61 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 140.5 | U 135 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsRMU
RMUW 101-69
+9.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 77-58
−11.5
14
vsXAV
XAVW 81-62
+3.5
18
vsSEMO
SEMOW 99-70
+5.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 93-54
+7.5
25
vsMISS
MISSW 74-69
+0.5
26
vsGCU
GCUW 59-46
+4.5
2
@MSU
MSUL 52-71
−13.5
6
vsMD
MDW 83-64
+8.5
11
@ISU
ISUL 62-66
+7.5
14
vsWMU
WMUW 91-51
+14.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 94-39
+29.5
29
vsUML
UMLW 90-62
−5.5
3
vsUCLA
UCLAW 74-61
+6.5
covered 11didn’t cover 3avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsRMU
RMUW 101-69
+33.5
7
vsWIU
WIUW 77-58
−10.5
14
vsXAV
XAVW 81-62
−0.5
18
vsSEMO
SEMOW 99-70
+21.5
20
vsCHST
CHSTW 93-54
+4.5
25
vsMISS
MISSW 74-69
+2.5
26
vsGCU
GCUW 59-46
−38.5
2
@MSU
MSUL 52-71
−10.5
6
vsMD
MDW 83-64
+9.5
11
@ISU
ISUL 62-66
−13.5
14
vsWMU
WMUW 91-51
+4.5
20
vsBUCK
BUCKW 94-39
−0.5
29
vsUML
UMLW 90-62
+6.5
3
vsUCLA
UCLAW 74-61
−5.5
over 7under 7avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Minnesota
14 games played
Straight up
9-5
64% wins
Against the spread
5-9
36% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-11
21% overs · avg −5.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs GWEB | W 87-60 | -28.5 | L −1.5 | 148.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 8 | vs ALCN | W 95-50 | -31.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 12 | @ MIZ | L 60-83 | +7.5 | L −15.5 | 158.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 15 | vs GB | W 72-65 | -25.5 | L −18.5 | 146.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 18 | vsCHST | W 66-54 | -27.5 | L −15.5 | 144.5 | U 120 |
| Nov 22 | vs SF | L 65-77 | -1.5 | L −13.5 | 140.5 | O 142 |
| Nov 27 | vs STAN | L 68-72 | +2.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 28 | vs SCU | L 75-86 | +5.5 | L −5.5 | 138.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 3 | vs IU | W 73-64 | +7.5 | W +16.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 10 | @ PUR | L 57-85 | +19.5 | L −8.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 14 | vs TXSO | W 89-53 | -21.5 | W +14.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 21 | vs CAM | W 78-50 | -13.5 | W +14.5 | 145.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 29 | vs FDU | W 60-43 | -25.5 | L −8.5 | 139.5 | U 103 |
| Jan 3 | @ NU | W 84-78 | +4.5 | W +10.5 | 138.5 | O 162 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsGWEB
GWEBW 87-60
−1.5
8
vsALCN
ALCNW 95-50
+13.5
12
@MIZ
MIZL 60-83
−15.5
15
vsGB
GBW 72-65
−18.5
18
vsCHST
CHSTW 66-54
−15.5
22
vsSF
SFL 65-77
−13.5
27
vsSTAN
STANL 68-72
−1.5
28
vsSCU
SCUL 75-86
−5.5
3
vsIU
IUW 73-64
+16.5
10
@PUR
PURL 57-85
−8.5
14
vsTXSO
TXSOW 89-53
+14.5
21
vsCAM
CAMW 78-50
+14.5
29
vsFDU
FDUW 60-43
−8.5
3
@NU
NUW 84-78
+10.5
covered 5didn’t cover 9avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsGWEB
GWEBW 87-60
−1.5
8
vsALCN
ALCNW 95-50
−7.5
12
@MIZ
MIZL 60-83
−15.5
15
vsGB
GBW 72-65
−9.5
18
vsCHST
CHSTW 66-54
−24.5
22
vsSF
SFL 65-77
+1.5
27
vsSTAN
STANL 68-72
−2.5
28
vsSCU
SCUL 75-86
+22.5
3
vsIU
IUW 73-64
−7.5
10
@PUR
PURL 57-85
−1.5
14
vsTXSO
TXSOW 89-53
−2.5
21
vsCAM
CAMW 78-50
−17.5
29
vsFDU
FDUW 60-43
−36.5
3
@NU
NUW 84-78
+23.5
over 3under 11avg −5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Iowa
12-2 overall · 2-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs UCLA74–61
- Wvs UMass Lowell90–62
- Wvs Bucknell94–39
- Wvs W Michigan91–51
- L@ Iowa State62–66
3 days since their last game.
Minnesota
9-5 overall · 2-1 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Northwestern84–78
- Wvs FDU60–43
- Wvs Campbell78–50
- Wvs Texas Southern89–53
- L@ Purdue57–85
3 days since their last game.