State Farm Center · at Illinois · Conference game
Closing line
ILL -9.5✓ NEB covered by 12.5
ILL -9.5✓ NEB covered by 12.5Closing total156.5Over by 6.5
 NEB | This season | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| 10-0 | Record | 8-2 |
| 6-4 | ATS | 6-4 |
| 4-6 | O/U | 3-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NEB 74–84 ILL · ✗ ILL (79%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEB | 37 | 46 | 83 |
| ILL | 37 | 43 | 80 |
1st half: NEB 37, ILL 37 (tied). The model had ILL by 5.5 and a total of 73.8 (actual 74).
Team stats
| NEB | ILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-62 52% | Field goals | 28-58 48% |
| 12-26 46% | 3-pointers | 10-29 34% |
| 7-8 88% | Free throws | 14-20 70% |
| 27 8 off | Rebounds | 34 13 off |
| 20 | Assists | 18 |
| 6 | Steals | 2 |
| 2 | Blocks | 4 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 21 | Fouls | 9 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| NEB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pryce Sandfort F | 34 | 32 | 1 | 3 | 12-18 | 6-11 |
| Rienk Mast F | 34 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 7-15 | 3-6 |
| Jamarques Lawrence G | 31 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5-8 | 2-4 |
| Sam Hoiberg G | 30 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 3-6 | 1-1 |
| Berke Buyuktuncel C | 26 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cale Jacobsen G | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Braden Frager F | 13 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jared Garcia F | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-2 |
| Kendall Blue G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Leo Curtis, Quentin Rhymes, Will Cooper, Justin Bolis, Connor Essegian, Henry Burt, Ugnius Jarusevicius
| ILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler G | 40 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 6-13 | 4-8 |
| Kylan Boswell G | 37 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 5-9 | 3-6 |
| Tomislav Ivisic C | 29 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Andrej Stojakovic G | 27 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 8-16 | 0-3 |
| David Mirkovic F | 23 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jake Davis F | 17 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Ben Humrichous F | 16 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic F | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Ty Rodgers, Mihailo Petrovic, Blake Fagbemi, Brandon Lee, Jason Jakstys, AJ Redd
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILL -8.5
1 → ILL
CloseILL -9.5
1 pt toward ILL
Total
Open154.5
▲ 2
Close156.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
NEB +380 · ILL -500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILL -8.5 · closed ILL -9.5 · moved 1 toward ILLmodel ILL -9.5 matches the line
model ILL -9.5 = line ✓
Opened 154.5 · closed 156.5 · moved 2 upmodel 157.5
model 157.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | ILL -9.5 | ILL -9.4 | NEB +0.1 | W NEB covered |
| Total | 156.5 | 157.7 | Over 1.2 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | NEB 74.1 · ILL 83.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | ILL -5.5 | PK |
| 1H total | 73.8 | 74 |
| 1H projected score | NEB 34.1 · ILL 39.6 | NEB 37 · ILL 37 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEB | 10-0 100% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| ILL | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
NEB 1–5 ILLILL leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · NEB 3-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2024-25 | ILL 74 @ NEB 80 | NEB +4.5 | NEB W |
| Mar 16, 2023-24 | NEB 87 vs ILL 98 | ILL -4.5 | ILL W |
| Feb 4, 2023-24 | NEB 84 @ ILL 87 | ILL -10 | NEB W |
| Jan 31, 2022-23 | NEB 56 @ ILL 72 | ILL -13.5 | ILL W |
| Jan 10, 2022-23 | ILL 76 @ NEB 50 | NEB +3.5 | ILL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Nebraska
10 games played
Straight up
10-0
100% wins
Against the spread
6-4
60% covers · avg +2.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-6
40% overs · avg −6.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs WGA | W 86-53 | -24.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 8 | vs FIU | W 96-66 | -21.5 | W +8.5 | 156.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 11 | vs UMES | W 69-50 | -35.5 | L −16.5 | 146.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 15 | vs OU | W 105-99 | -1.5 | W +4.5 | 163.5 | O 204 |
| Nov 20 | vs UNM | W 84-72 | -8.5 | W +3.5 | 151.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 21 | vs KSU | W 86-85 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 25 | vs WIN | W 80-73 | -14.5 | L −7.5 | 166.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 29 | vs UPST | W 72-63 | -25.5 | L −16.5 | 157.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 7 | vs CREI | W 71-50 | -5.5 | W +15.5 | 155.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 10 | vs WIS | W 90-60 | -1.5 | W +28.5 | 158.5 | U 150 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsWGA
WGAW 86-53
+8.5
8
vsFIU
FIUW 96-66
+8.5
11
vsUMES
UMESW 69-50
−16.5
15
vsOU
OUW 105-99
+4.5
20
vsUNM
UNMW 84-72
+3.5
21
vsKSU
KSUW 86-85
−0.5
25
vsWIN
WINW 80-73
−7.5
29
vsUPST
UPSTW 72-63
−16.5
7
vsCREI
CREIW 71-50
+15.5
10
vsWIS
WISW 90-60
+28.5
covered 6didn’t cover 4avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsWGA
WGAW 86-53
−14.5
8
vsFIU
FIUW 96-66
+5.5
11
vsUMES
UMESW 69-50
−27.5
15
vsOU
OUW 105-99
+40.5
20
vsUNM
UNMW 84-72
+4.5
21
vsKSU
KSUW 86-85
+2.5
25
vsWIN
WINW 80-73
−13.5
29
vsUPST
UPSTW 72-63
−22.5
7
vsCREI
CREIW 71-50
−34.5
10
vsWIS
WISW 90-60
−8.5
over 4under 6avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois
10 games played
Straight up
8-2
80% wins
Against the spread
6-4
60% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-7
30% overs · avg −2.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JKST | W 113-55 | -28.5 | W +29.5 | 157.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 7 | vs FGCU | W 113-70 | -29.5 | W +13.5 | 160.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 11 | vs TTU | W 81-77 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 168.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 14 | vs COLG | W 84-65 | -30.5 | L −11.5 | 164.5 | U 149 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALA | L 86-90 | -2.5 | L −6.5 | 180.5 | U 176 |
| Nov 22 | vs LIU | W 98-58 | -34.5 | W +5.5 | 160.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs RGV | W 87-73 | -33.5 | L −19.5 | 164.5 | U 160 |
| Nov 28 | vs CONN | L 61-74 | +4.5 | L −8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 6 | vs TENN | W 75-62 | +1.5 | W +14.5 | 149.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 9 | @ OSU | W 88-80 | -3.5 | W +4.5 | 162.5 | O 168 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+29.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+13.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
+0.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−11.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−6.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
+5.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−19.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−8.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
+14.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+4.5
covered 6didn’t cover 4avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJKST
JKSTW 113-55
+10.5
7
vsFGCU
FGCUW 113-70
+22.5
11
vsTTU
TTUW 81-77
−10.5
14
vsCOLG
COLGW 84-65
−15.5
19
vsALA
ALAL 86-90
−4.5
22
vsLIU
LIUW 98-58
−4.5
24
vsRGV
RGVW 87-73
−4.5
28
vsCONN
CONNL 61-74
−15.5
6
vsTENN
TENNW 75-62
−12.5
9
@OSU
OSUW 88-80
+5.5
over 3under 7avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Nebraska
10-0 overall · 1-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Wisconsin90–60
- Wvs Creighton71–50
- Wvs SC Upstate72–63
- Wvs Winthrop80–73
- Wvs Kansas St86–85
3 days since their last game.
Illinois
8-2 overall · 1-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Ohio State88–80
- Wvs Tennessee75–62
- Lvs UConn61–74
- Wvs UT Rio Grande87–73
- Wvs Long Island98–58
4 days since their last game.