Freedom Hall (TN) · at ETSU
Closing line
ETSU -7.5✓ ETSU covered by 18.5
ETSU -7.5✓ ETSU covered by 18.5Closing total143.5Over by 12.5
 USA | This season | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 4-4 | ATS | 5-2 |
| 5-3 | O/U | 3-4 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: USA 68–74 ETSU · ✓ ETSU (69%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 31 | 34 | 65 |
| ETSU | 36 | 55 | 91 |
1st half: USA 31, ETSU 36 (ETSU by 5). The model had ETSU by 3.2 and a total of 66.5 (actual 67).
Team stats
| USA | ETSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-54 43% | Field goals | 35-73 48% |
| 10-23 43% | 3-pointers | 14-39 36% |
| 9-16 56% | Free throws | 7-9 78% |
| 29 6 off | Rebounds | 45 16 off |
| 13 | Assists | 20 |
| 7 | Steals | 11 |
| 5 | Blocks | 5 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 6 | Fouls | 14 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| USA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Olsen F | 33 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 5-12 | 4-8 |
| Jayden Cooper G | 33 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 7-13 | 5-9 |
| Randy Brady F | 25 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Chaze Harris G | 23 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1-7 | 0-1 |
| Peyton Law F | 16 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Hantz Louis-Jeune G | 20 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Stephen Williams F | 20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Brian Hawthorne G | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| JJ Wheat G | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| John Broom G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Maxwell Land G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Samuel Shoptaw, Desmond Williams
| ETSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Morris III F | 27 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 5-9 | 0-1 |
| Allen Strothers G | 25 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Blake Barkley F | 24 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 7-9 | 1-1 |
| Brian Taylor II G | 23 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Jordan McCullum F | 18 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Maki Johnson G | 28 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 10-19 | 9-17 |
| Jaylen Smith G | 26 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2-8 | 1-6 |
| Milton Matthews III G | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| Brayden Crump F | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Gabe Sisk G | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Isaiah Sutherland F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Henry Sisemore F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Joseph Carter G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Maddox Huff, Frederico Whitaker Jr.
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketETSU -7.5
ModelETSU -5.5
Model edgeUSA +2.0
L ETSU covered
Total
Market143.5
Model141.8
Model edgeUnder 1.7
L Over
Projected score
USA 68.1 · ETSU 73.7
USA 65 · ETSU 91
Win probability
ETSU 69%
1st half
Spread
ETSU -3.2
ETSU -5.0
Total
66.5
67 points
Projected score
USA 31.6 · ETSU 34.8
USA 31 · ETSU 36
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenETSU -5.5
2 → ETSU
CloseETSU -7.5
2 pts toward ETSU
Total
Open141.5
▲ 2
Close143.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
USA +240 · ETSU -298
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ETSU -5.5 · closed ETSU -7.5 · moved 2 toward ETSUmodel ETSU -5.5
model ETSU -5.5
Opened 141.5 · closed 143.5 · moved 2 upmodel 142
model 142
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USAlast 8 | 7-1 88% | 4-4 50% | 5-3 63% |
| ETSUlast 7 | 5-2 71% | 5-2 71% | 3-4 43% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
South Alabama
8 games played
Straight up
7-1
88% wins
Against the spread
4-4
50% covers · avg +1.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-3
63% overs · avg +1.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ TOL | W 76-74 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 6 | vs ALCN | W 76-70 | -18.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 146 |
| Nov 13 | vs CMU | W 66-64 | -5.5 | L −3.5 | 142.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 15 | vs COPP | W 72-62 | -18.5 | L −8.5 | 133.5 | O 134 |
| Nov 19 | @ JXST | W 71-65 | +2.5 | W +8.5 | 135.5 | O 136 |
| Nov 21 | @ UAB | L 72-80 | +7.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 30 | @ UTSA | W 82-58 | -1.5 | W +22.5 | 141.5 | U 140 |
| Dec 2 | vs NMSU | W 77-75 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 135.5 | O 152 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
+4.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
−12.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−3.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
−8.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+8.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
−0.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
+22.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+4.5
covered 4didn’t cover 4avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@TOL
TOLW 76-74
−0.5
6
vsALCN
ALCNW 76-70
+4.5
13
vsCMU
CMUW 66-64
−12.5
15
vsCOPP
COPPW 72-62
+0.5
19
@JXST
JXSTW 71-65
+0.5
21
@UAB
UABL 72-80
+2.5
30
@UTSA
UTSAW 82-58
−1.5
2
vsNMSU
NMSUW 77-75
+16.5
over 5under 3avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
ETSU
7 games played
Straight up
5-2
71% wins
Against the spread
5-2
71% covers · avg +4.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-4
43% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@
PRES
PRESL 64-68
−10.5
12
vs
NKU
NKUW 75-63
+5.5
15
@
UNA
UNAW 78-74
+5.5
21
vs
MORE
MOREW 77-62
+4.5
23
vs
ULM
ULMW 97-55
+22.5
29
vs
CARK
CARKW 80-57
+10.5
2
@
DAY
DAYL 71-88
−5.5
covered 5didn’t cover 2avg +4.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@PRES
PRESL 64-68
−9.5
12
vsNKU
NKUW 75-63
−4.5
15
@UNA
UNAW 78-74
+6.5
21
vsMORE
MOREW 77-62
−5.5
23
vsULM
ULMW 97-55
+5.5
29
vsCARK
CARKW 80-57
−7.5
2
@DAY
DAYL 71-88
+18.5
over 3under 4avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
South Alabama
7-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs New Mexico St77–75
- W@ UTSA82–58
- L@ UAB72–80
- W@ Jax State71–65
- Wvs Coppin St72–62
3 days since their last game.
ETSU
5-2 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Dayton71–88
- Wvs C Arkansas80–57
- Wvs UL Monroe97–55
- Wvs Morehead St77–62
- W@ North Alabama78–74
3 days since their last game.