Amica Mutual Pavilion · at Providence · Conference game
Closing line
VILL -2.5✓ VILL covered by 3.5
VILL -2.5✓ VILL covered by 3.5Closing total156.5Over by 13.5
| VILL | This season | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| 13-3 | Record | 8-8 |
| 10-6 | ATS | 9-7 |
| 8-8 | O/U | 11-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VILL 81–80 PROV · ✓ VILL (55%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VILL | 46 | 42 | 88 |
| PROV | 34 | 48 | 82 |
1st half: VILL 46, PROV 34 (VILL by 12). The model had VILL by 1.0 and a total of 75.3 (actual 80).
Team stats
| VILL | PROV | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-64 50% | Field goals | 31-56 55% |
| 10-28 36% | 3-pointers | 8-25 32% |
| 14-18 78% | Free throws | 12-17 71% |
| 34 14 off | Rebounds | 27 7 off |
| 21 | Assists | 12 |
| 7 | Steals | 6 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 13 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| VILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acaden Lewis G | 35 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 3-9 | 0-2 |
| Tyler Perkins G | 31 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 6-12 | 3-5 |
| Duke Brennan F | 30 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6-8 | 0-0 |
| Matt Hodge F | 25 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-6 | 1-3 |
| Bryce Lindsay G | 24 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 2-10 | 2-8 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Devin Askew G | 27 | 20 | 2 | 7 | 6-12 | 3-7 |
| Malachi Palmer G | 24 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-3 |
| Braden Pierce C | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Zion Stanford, Tafara Gapare, Chris Jeffrey, Malcolm Flaggs, Wade Chiddick, Nico Onyekwere
| PROV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Vaaks G | 37 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 8-14 | 3-8 |
| Jaylin Sellers G | 35 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 9-18 | 4-12 |
| Jamier Jones G | 31 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 8-12 | 0-2 |
| Corey Floyd Jr. G | 26 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Oswin Erhunmwunse F | 20 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Duncan Powell F | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Ryan Mela G | 22 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Cole Hargrove F | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jaylen Harrell, Rich Barron, Jason Edwards, Nilavan Daniels, Daquan Davis, Jack Williams, Peteris Pinnis
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketVILL -2.5
ModelVILL -1.5
Model edgePROV +1.0
L VILL covered
Total
Market156.5
Model160.9
Model edgeOver 4.4
W Over
Projected score
VILL 81.2 · PROV 79.7
VILL 88 · PROV 82
Win probability
VILL 55%
1st half
Spread
VILL -1.0
VILL -12.0
Total
75.3
80 points
Projected score
VILL 38.2 · PROV 37.2
VILL 46 · PROV 34
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenVILL -2.5
no move
CloseVILL -2.5
No change since the open
Total
Open158.5
▼ 2
Close156.5
Down 2 since the open
Moneyline
VILL -148 · PROV +124
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened VILL -2.5 · unchangedmodel VILL -1.5
model VILL -1.5
Opened 158.5 · closed 156.5 · moved 2 downmodel 161
model 161
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VILL | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| PROV | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
VILL 5–3 PROVVILL leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · VILL 3-5 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024-25 | VILL 62 @ PROV 75 | PROV +1.5 | PROV W |
| Jan 17, 2024-25 | PROV 73 @ VILL 75 | VILL -8.5 | PROV W |
| Mar 2, 2023-24 | VILL 71 @ PROV 60 | PROV -2.5 | VILL W |
| Feb 4, 2023-24 | PROV 50 @ VILL 68 | VILL -4.5 | VILL W |
| Feb 18, 2022-23 | VILL 72 @ PROV 85 | PROV -3.5 | PROV W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Villanova
16 games played
Straight up
13-3
81% wins
Against the spread
10-6
63% covers · avg +3.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-8
50% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BYU | L 66-71 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs QUC | W 94-74 | -17.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 11 | vs SHU | W 94-60 | -19.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 15 | vs DUQ | W 87-77 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 19 | @ LAS | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 25 | vs ODU | W 89-75 | -22.5 | L −8.5 | 147.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 1 | vs TEM | W 74-56 | -14.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 6 | vs PENN | W 90-63 | -18.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 9 | @ MICH | L 61-89 | +17.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | vs PITT | W 79-61 | -10.5 | W +7.5 | 138.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 19 | vs WIS | W 76-66 | +3.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 23 | @ HALL | W 64-56 | +1.5 | W +9.5 | 135.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 31 | vs DEP | W 71-66 | -12.5 | L −7.5 | 139.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 3 | @ BTLR | W 85-67 | +2.5 | W +20.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 7 | vs CREI | L 72-76 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 142.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | @ MARQ | W 76-73 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBYU
BYUL 66-71
+4.5
8
vsQUC
QUCW 94-74
+2.5
11
vsSHU
SHUW 94-60
+14.5
15
vsDUQ
DUQW 87-77
−0.5
19
@LAS
LASW 70-55
+2.5
25
vsODU
ODUW 89-75
−8.5
1
vsTEM
TEMW 74-56
+3.5
6
vsPENN
PENNW 90-63
+8.5
9
@MICH
MICHL 61-89
−10.5
13
vsPITT
PITTW 79-61
+7.5
19
vsWIS
WISW 76-66
+13.5
23
@HALL
HALLW 64-56
+9.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 71-66
−7.5
3
@BTLR
BTLRW 85-67
+20.5
7
vsCREI
CREIL 72-76
−8.5
10
@MARQ
MARQW 76-73
−0.5
covered 10didn’t cover 6avg +3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBYU
BYUL 66-71
−16.5
8
vsQUC
QUCW 94-74
+17.5
11
vsSHU
SHUW 94-60
−6.5
15
vsDUQ
DUQW 87-77
+12.5
19
@LAS
LASW 70-55
−19.5
25
vsODU
ODUW 89-75
+16.5
1
vsTEM
TEMW 74-56
−16.5
6
vsPENN
PENNW 90-63
+2.5
9
@MICH
MICHL 61-89
−6.5
13
vsPITT
PITTW 79-61
+1.5
19
vsWIS
WISW 76-66
−10.5
23
@HALL
HALLW 64-56
−15.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 71-66
−2.5
3
@BTLR
BTLRW 85-67
+2.5
7
vsCREI
CREIL 72-76
+5.5
10
@MARQ
MARQW 76-73
+2.5
over 8under 8avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Providence
16 games played
Straight up
8-8
50% wins
Against the spread
9-7
56% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
11-5
69% overs · avg +12.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs HC | W 89-79 | -23.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs VT | L 101-107 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | O 208 |
| Nov 11 | vsPENN | W 106-81 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 172.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 14 | @ COLO | L 88-97 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 163.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 18 | vs UNH | W 98-66 | -29.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PSU | W 77-65 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 27 | vsWIS | L 83-104 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vs FLA | L 78-90 | +12.5 | W +0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | vs FDU | W 94-64 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs URI | W 90-71 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs BRWN | W 86-79 | -19.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | @BTLR | L 110-113 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 223 |
| Dec 19 | vsHALL | L 67-72 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 3 | @ SJU | W 77-71 | +14.5 | W +20.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 7 | vs CONN | L 98-103 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 10 | @ XAV | L 84-97 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 165.5 | O 181 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
−13.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
−8.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+5.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
−7.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
+8.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
−14.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
+0.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
+3.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+11.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
−12.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+0.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−6.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
+20.5
7
vsCONN
CONNL 98-103
+4.5
10
@XAV
XAVL 84-97
−14.5
covered 9didn’t cover 7avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
+15.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
+50.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+14.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
+21.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
−23.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
+20.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
−1.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
−4.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+1.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
+19.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+58.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−13.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
−18.5
7
vsCONN
CONNL 98-103
+48.5
10
@XAV
XAVL 84-97
+15.5
over 11under 5avg +12.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Villanova
13-3 overall · 4-1 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Marquette76–73
- Lvs Creighton72–76
- W@ Butler85–67
- Wvs DePaul71–66
- W@ Seton Hall64–56
3 days since their last game.
Providence
8-8 overall · 1-4 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Xavier84–97
- Lvs UConn98–103
- W@ St John's77–71
- Lvs Seton Hall67–72
- L@ Butler110–113
3 days since their last game.