Provident Credit Union Event Center · at San José St · Conference game
Closing line
SJSU -5.5✓ SJSU covered by 2.5
SJSU -5.5✓ SJSU covered by 2.5Closing total128.5Over by 3.5
 AF | This season | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-13 | Record | 4-11 |
| 6-10 | ATS | 7-8 |
| 7-9 | O/U | 8-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: AF 62–74 SJSU · ✓ SJSU (84%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 21 | 41 | 62 |
| SJSU | 27 | 43 | 70 |
1st half: AF 21, SJSU 27 (SJSU by 6). The model had SJSU by 6.7 and a total of 63.8 (actual 48).
Team stats
| AF | SJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-47 45% | Field goals | 23-49 47% |
| 8-22 36% | 3-pointers | 6-16 38% |
| 12-15 80% | Free throws | 18-24 75% |
| 29 9 off | Rebounds | 27 8 off |
| 9 | Assists | 9 |
| 7 | Steals | 5 |
| 1 | Blocks | 3 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 19 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| AF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Greenberg G | 35 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 4-10 | 2-7 |
| Lucas Hobin F | 30 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 4-9 | 3-8 |
| Kam Sanders G | 30 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 4-8 | 2-3 |
| Eli Robinson F | 26 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-1 |
| Caleb Walker F | 23 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Wesley Celichowski C | 17 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| A.J. Patterson G | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Kolby Gilles F | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Justin Hinds G | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Keaton Frisch, Sam Imade, Chris Catchings, Brendan Martin, Riley Dering, Elliott Taite, Kyle Marshall, Josh Gatete
| SJSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Bell Jr. G | 40 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Pasha Goodarzi G | 40 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 6-14 | 4-8 |
| Sadraque NgaNga F | 31 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1-8 | 0-2 |
| Ben Roseborough G | 30 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 6-10 | 1-3 |
| Adrian Myers G | 26 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 4-8 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Douglas Langford F | 27 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Japhet Moupadele F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Marcus Overstreet F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Eren Karakaya, Damase Coly, Jaden Goodall, JaVaughn Hannah, Jermaine Washington, Christian Wise, Colby Garland, Yaphet Moundi
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSJSU -5.5
ModelSJSU -11.4
Model edgeSJSU +5.9
W SJSU covered
Total
Market128.5
Model136.1
Model edgeOver 7.6
W Over
Projected score
AF 62.3 · SJSU 73.8
AF 62 · SJSU 70
Win probability
SJSU 84%
1st half
Spread
SJSU -6.7
SJSU -6.0
Total
63.8
48 points
Projected score
AF 28.5 · SJSU 35.3
AF 21 · SJSU 27
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSJSU -9.5
4 → AF
CloseSJSU -5.5
4 pts toward AF
Total
Open133.5
▼ 5
Close128.5
Down 5 since the open
Moneyline
AF +205 · SJSU -250
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SJSU -9.5 · closed SJSU -5.5 · moved 4 toward AFmodel SJSU -11.5
model SJSU -11.5
Opened 133.5 · closed 128.5 · moved 5 downmodel 136
model 136
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AF | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| SJSU | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
AF 2–6 SJSUSJSU leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · SJSU has won the last 6 meetings · AF 1-7 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2024-25 | AF 64 @ SJSU 75 | SJSU -9.5 | SJSU W |
| Jan 11, 2024-25 | SJSU 69 @ AF 62 | AF +2.5 | SJSU W |
| Feb 13, 2023-24 | AF 66 @ SJSU 73 | SJSU -3.5 | SJSU W |
| Jan 13, 2023-24 | SJSU 70 @ AF 67 | AF -1.5 | SJSU W |
| Mar 4, 2022-23 | SJSU 63 @ AF 61 | AF -2.5 | SJSU W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Air Force
16 games played
Straight up
3-13
19% wins
Against the spread
6-10
38% covers · avg −4.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-9
44% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ BEL | L 63-79 | +15.5 | L −0.5 | 144.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 8 | vs APSU | L 54-74 | +1.5 | L −18.5 | 136.5 | U 128 |
| Nov 11 | vs LIU | L 72-76 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 137.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 15 | vs M-OH | L 61-76 | +10.5 | L −4.5 | 143.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 19 | vs ALST | W 66-64 | -2.5 | L −0.5 | 138.5 | U 130 |
| Nov 21 | vs SIUE | W 77-63 | +2.5 | W +16.5 | 130.5 | O 140 |
| Nov 23 | vs IUIN | W 98-85 | -3.5 | W +9.5 | 175.5 | O 183 |
| Nov 26 | vs UNCO | L 53-71 | +4.5 | L −13.5 | 146.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 29 | vs SDAK | L 63-80 | +3.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 3 | vs PAC | L 65-80 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 134.5 | O 145 |
| Dec 7 | @ NAVY | L 56-61 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 133.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 17 | @ SDSU | L 58-81 | +24.5 | W +1.5 | 135.5 | O 139 |
| Dec 30 | vs WYO | L 56-68 | +14.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | U 124 |
| Jan 3 | @ UNLV | L 39-67 | +14.5 | L −13.5 | 142.5 | U 106 |
| Jan 6 | vs USU | L 62-99 | +22.5 | L −14.5 | 139.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 10 | vs UNM | L 49-91 | +16.5 | L −25.5 | 138.5 | O 140 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@BEL
BELL 63-79
−0.5
8
vsAPSU
APSUL 54-74
−18.5
11
vsLIU
LIUL 72-76
+1.5
15
vsM-OH
M-OHL 61-76
−4.5
19
vsALST
ALSTW 66-64
−0.5
21
vsSIUE
SIUEW 77-63
+16.5
23
vsIUIN
IUINW 98-85
+9.5
26
vsUNCO
UNCOL 53-71
−13.5
29
vsSDAK
SDAKL 63-80
−13.5
3
vsPAC
PACL 65-80
−9.5
7
@NAVY
NAVYL 56-61
+4.5
17
@SDSU
SDSUL 58-81
+1.5
30
vsWYO
WYOL 56-68
+2.5
3
@UNLV
UNLVL 39-67
−13.5
6
vsUSU
USUL 62-99
−14.5
10
vsUNM
UNML 49-91
−25.5
covered 6didn’t cover 10avg −4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BEL
BELL 63-79
−2.5
8
vsAPSU
APSUL 54-74
−8.5
11
vsLIU
LIUL 72-76
+10.5
15
vsM-OH
M-OHL 61-76
−6.5
19
vsALST
ALSTW 66-64
−8.5
21
vsSIUE
SIUEW 77-63
+9.5
23
vsIUIN
IUINW 98-85
+7.5
26
vsUNCO
UNCOL 53-71
−22.5
29
vsSDAK
SDAKL 63-80
−4.5
3
vsPAC
PACL 65-80
+10.5
7
@NAVY
NAVYL 56-61
−16.5
17
@SDSU
SDSUL 58-81
+3.5
30
vsWYO
WYOL 56-68
−22.5
3
@UNLV
UNLVL 39-67
−36.5
6
vsUSU
USUL 62-99
+21.5
10
vsUNM
UNML 49-91
+1.5
over 7under 9avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin
San José St
15 games played
Straight up
4-11
27% wins
Against the spread
7-8
47% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-7
53% overs · avg +2.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ UTAH | L 75-84 | +11.5 | W +2.5 | 146.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 8 | @ UCSB | L 74-85 | +9.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 13 | @ MSU | L 60-79 | +24.5 | W +5.5 | 143.5 | U 139 |
| Nov 21 | vs SOU | W 80-66 | -5.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 25 | vs TLSA | L 51-81 | +5.5 | L −24.5 | 149.5 | U 132 |
| Nov 26 | vs LUC | W 63-51 | -1.5 | W +10.5 | 136.5 | U 114 |
| Nov 30 | vs UCI | L 63-72 | +3.5 | L −5.5 | 139.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 5 | vs USD | W 86-69 | -6.5 | W +10.5 | 144.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 9 | vs LBSU | W 89-83 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 141.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 13 | vs STAN | L 82-86 | +8.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 168 |
| Dec 20 | @UNM | L 65-88 | +16.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 30 | vsSDSU | L 68-81 | +11.5 | L −1.5 | 141.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 3 | @USU | L 78-96 | +22.5 | W +4.5 | 151.5 | O 174 |
| Jan 6 | vs FRES | L 55-70 | +1.5 | L −13.5 | 149.5 | U 125 |
| Jan 10 | @ GCU | L 58-76 | +16.5 | L −1.5 | 141.5 | U 134 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@UTAH
UTAHL 75-84
+2.5
8
@UCSB
UCSBL 74-85
−1.5
13
@MSU
MSUL 60-79
+5.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 80-66
+8.5
25
vsTLSA
TLSAL 51-81
−24.5
26
vsLUC
LUCW 63-51
+10.5
30
vsUCI
UCIL 63-72
−5.5
5
vsUSD
USDW 86-69
+10.5
9
vsLBSU
LBSUW 89-83
−1.5
13
vsSTAN
STANL 82-86
+4.5
20
@UNM
UNML 65-88
−6.5
30
vsSDSU
SDSUL 68-81
−1.5
3
@USU
USUL 78-96
+4.5
6
vsFRES
FRESL 55-70
−13.5
10
@GCU
GCUL 58-76
−1.5
covered 7didn’t cover 8avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@UTAH
UTAHL 75-84
+12.5
8
@UCSB
UCSBL 74-85
+12.5
13
@MSU
MSUL 60-79
−4.5
21
vsSOU
SOUW 80-66
−4.5
25
vsTLSA
TLSAL 51-81
−17.5
26
vsLUC
LUCW 63-51
−22.5
30
vsUCI
UCIL 63-72
−4.5
5
vsUSD
USDW 86-69
+10.5
9
vsLBSU
LBSUW 89-83
+30.5
13
vsSTAN
STANL 82-86
+22.5
20
@UNM
UNML 65-88
+0.5
30
vsSDSU
SDSUL 68-81
+7.5
3
@USU
USUL 78-96
+22.5
6
vsFRES
FRESL 55-70
−24.5
10
@GCU
GCUL 58-76
−7.5
over 8under 7avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Air Force
3-13 overall · 0-5 in conference · Mountain West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs New Mexico49–91
- Lvs Utah State62–99
- L@ UNLV39–67
- Lvs Wyoming56–68
- L@ San Diego St58–81
3 days since their last game.
San José St
4-11 overall · 0-5 in conference · Mountain West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Grand Canyon58–76
- Lvs Fresno St55–70
- L@ Utah State78–96
- Lvs San Diego St68–81
- L@ New Mexico65–88
3 days since their last game.