Dean E. Smith Center · at North Carolina
Closing line
UNC -25.5✓ UNC covered by 22.5
UNC -25.5✓ UNC covered by 22.5Closing total144.5Over by 5.5
 ECU | This season | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| 4-7 | Record | 11-1 |
| 3-8 | ATS | 7-5 |
| 4-7 | O/U | 3-9 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: ECU 61–85 UNC · ✓ UNC (98%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECU | 26 | 25 | 51 |
| UNC | 49 | 50 | 99 |
1st half: ECU 26, UNC 49 (UNC by 23). The model had UNC by 14.1 and a total of 68.3 (actual 75).
Team stats
| ECU | UNC | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-73 26% | Field goals | 34-63 54% |
| 2-22 9% | 3-pointers | 12-25 48% |
| 11-17 65% | Free throws | 19-30 63% |
| 42 20 off | Rebounds | 48 15 off |
| 8 | Assists | 20 |
| 7 | Steals | 11 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 17 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 23 | Fouls | 13 |
| 30 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 17 |
Players
| ECU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Riley G | 35 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 4-24 | 0-3 |
| Giovanni Emejuru C | 34 | 21 | 14 | 0 | 8-11 | 0-0 |
| Corey Caulker G | 32 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-2 |
| Tybo Bailey G | 24 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Luke Davis F | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Isaiah Mbeng G | 26 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1-11 | 0-7 |
| Reid Cason F | 19 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-7 | 0-2 |
| Patrick D'Arcy G | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Vito Perkovic F | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Ladontae Felton G | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Trevion LaBeaux, Jayshayne Woodard, Daithi Quinn, Grant Smith, Jake Baker, Eli DeLaurier
| UNC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Trimble G | 26 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 5-12 | 1-3 |
| Henri Veesaar C | 26 | 16 | 10 | 1 | 6-9 | 4-5 |
| Caleb Wilson F | 24 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 7-11 | 0-0 |
| Luka Bogavac G | 24 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 5-9 | 1-3 |
| Kyan Evans G | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jonathan Powell G | 19 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Jarin Stevenson F | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Derek Dixon G | 11 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jaydon Young G | 10 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Isaiah Denis G | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| James Brown C | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Zayden High F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ivan Matlekovic C | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| John Holbrook F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Evan Smith G | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Elijah Davis G | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Loading the game…
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUNC -26.5
1 → ECU
CloseUNC -25.5
1 pt toward ECU
Total
Open144.5
no move
Close144.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
ECU +1800 · UNC -5000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UNC -26.5 · closed UNC -25.5 · moved 1 toward ECUmodel UNC -23.5
model UNC -23.5
Opened 144.5 · unchangedmodel 146
model 146
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNC -25.5 | UNC -23.7 | ECU +1.8 | L UNC covered |
| Total | 144.5 | 145.8 | Over 1.3 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | ECU 61.1 · UNC 84.8 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UNC -14.1 | UNC -23.0 |
| 1H total | 68.3 | 75 |
| 1H projected score | ECU 27.1 · UNC 41.2 | ECU 26 · UNC 49 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECU | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
| UNC | 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 2-8 20% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
East Carolina
11 games played
Straight up
4-7
36% wins
Against the spread
3-8
27% covers · avg −7.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-7
36% overs · avg +1.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | vs GASO | W 92-89 | -5.5 | L −2.5 | 151.5 | O 181 |
| Nov 8 | @ RICH | L 72-87 | +5.5 | L −9.5 | 143.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 18 | @ UNCW | L 60-85 | +6.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 145 |
| Nov 21 | vs CHSO | L 65-77 | -13.5 | L −25.5 | 157.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 25 | vs MSU | L 56-89 | +19.5 | L −13.5 | 140.5 | O 145 |
| Nov 27 | vs SBU | L 58-67 | +10.5 | W +1.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Dec 2 | vs UMES | W 68-56 | -12.5 | L −0.5 | 127.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs UNCG | L 78-82 | -7.5 | L −11.5 | 139.5 | O 160 |
| Dec 11 | vs APP | L 54-67 | -4.5 | L −17.5 | 130.5 | U 121 |
| Dec 14 | vs BUF | W 73-70 | -1.5 | W +1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 17 | vs PRES | W 74-53 | -4.5 | W +16.5 | 131.5 | U 127 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vsGASO
GASOW 92-89
−2.5
8
@RICH
RICHL 72-87
−9.5
18
@UNCW
UNCWL 60-85
−18.5
21
vsCHSO
CHSOL 65-77
−25.5
25
vsMSU
MSUL 56-89
−13.5
27
vsSBU
SBUL 58-67
+1.5
2
vsUMES
UMESW 68-56
−0.5
6
vsUNCG
UNCGL 78-82
−11.5
11
vsAPP
APPL 54-67
−17.5
14
vsBUF
BUFW 73-70
+1.5
17
vsPRES
PRESW 74-53
+16.5
covered 3didn’t cover 8avg −7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsGASO
GASOW 92-89
+29.5
8
@RICH
RICHL 72-87
+15.5
18
@UNCW
UNCWL 60-85
−0.5
21
vsCHSO
CHSOL 65-77
−15.5
25
vsMSU
MSUL 56-89
+4.5
27
vsSBU
SBUL 58-67
−19.5
2
vsUMES
UMESW 68-56
−3.5
6
vsUNCG
UNCGL 78-82
+20.5
11
vsAPP
APPL 54-67
−9.5
14
vsBUF
BUFW 73-70
−3.5
17
vsPRES
PRESW 74-53
−4.5
over 4under 7avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
North Carolina
12 games played
Straight up
11-1
92% wins
Against the spread
7-5
58% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-9
25% overs · avg −11.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CARK | W 94-54 | -31.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 7 | vs KU | W 87-74 | -2.5 | W +10.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Nov 11 | vs RAD | W 89-74 | -20.5 | L −5.5 | 162.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 14 | vs NCCU | W 97-53 | -34.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 18 | vs NAVY | W 73-61 | -26.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 25 | vsSBU | W 85-70 | -10.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 27 | vsMSU | L 58-74 | +1.5 | L −14.5 | 152.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 2 | @ UK | W 67-64 | +7.5 | W +10.5 | 163.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 7 | vs GTWN | W 81-61 | -10.5 | W +9.5 | 149.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 13 | vs UPST | W 80-62 | -29.5 | L −11.5 | 151.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 16 | vs ETSU | W 77-58 | -17.5 | W +1.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 20 | vs OSU | W 71-70 | -2.5 | L −1.5 | 157.5 | U 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
+8.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+10.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
−5.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
+9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−14.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+4.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−14.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
+10.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
+9.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−11.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
+1.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−1.5
covered 7didn’t cover 5avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCARK
CARKW 94-54
−9.5
7
vsKU
KUW 87-74
+1.5
11
vsRAD
RADW 89-74
+0.5
14
vsNCCU
NCCUW 97-53
−9.5
18
vsNAVY
NAVYW 73-61
−26.5
25
vsSBU
SBUW 85-70
+2.5
27
vsMSU
MSUL 58-74
−20.5
2
@UK
UKW 67-64
−32.5
7
vsGTWN
GTWNW 81-61
−7.5
13
vsUPST
UPSTW 80-62
−9.5
16
vsETSU
ETSUW 77-58
−15.5
20
vsOSU
OSUW 71-70
−16.5
over 3under 9avg −11.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
East Carolina
4-7 overall · 0-0 in conference · American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Presbyterian74–53
- Wvs Buffalo73–70
- Lvs App State54–67
- Lvs UNC Greensboro78–82
- Wvs MD Eastern68–56
5 days since their last game.
North Carolina
11-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Ohio State71–70
- Wvs ETSU77–58
- Wvs SC Upstate80–62
- Wvs Georgetown81–61
- W@ Kentucky67–64
2 days since their last game.