James A. Rhodes Arena · at Akron · Conference game
Closing line
AKR -12.5✓ TOL covered by 2.5
AKR -12.5✓ TOL covered by 2.5Closing total168.5Over by 3.5
 TOL | This season | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| 9-9 | Record | 14-4 |
| 10-8 | ATS | 11-7 |
| 8-10 | O/U | 10-8 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: TOL 79–91 AKR · ✓ AKR (84%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 49 | 32 | 81 |
| AKR | 41 | 50 | 91 |
1st half: TOL 49, AKR 41 (TOL by 8). The model had AKR by 6.7 and a total of 79.5 (actual 90).
Team stats
| TOL | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-56 54% | Field goals | 35-68 51% |
| 11-20 55% | 3-pointers | 10-27 37% |
| 10-13 77% | Free throws | 11-14 79% |
| 25 7 off | Rebounds | 37 17 off |
| 18 | Assists | 19 |
| 9 | Steals | 8 |
| 2 | Blocks | 0 |
| 15 | Turnovers | 12 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 15 |
Players
| TOL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Wilson G | 39 | 22 | 5 | 8 | 7-15 | 3-4 |
| Leroy Blyden Jr. G | 39 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 8-14 | 4-7 |
| Sean Craig F | 28 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Kyler Vanderjagt G | 25 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Austin Parks C | 21 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylan Ouwinga F | 26 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 5-8 | 1-2 |
| Mynor Strong G | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-2 |
| Will James Jr. G | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
Did not play: London Praytor, Phoenix Glassnor, Toby Nwokolo, Tyler Ode, Chris Riddle
| AKR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavari Johnson G | 37 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 9-18 | 3-7 |
| Evan Mahaffey F | 32 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 5-7 | 1-1 |
| Amani Lyles F | 32 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 7-8 | 0-0 |
| Zach Halligan F | 20 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 4-6 | 2-4 |
| Sharron Young G | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-10 | 0-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Shammah Scott G | 24 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-4 |
| Eric Mahaffey G | 23 | 13 | 8 | 1 | 5-8 | 3-4 |
| Bowen Hardman G | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Marvin Musiime-Kamali F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Tai Perkins, Josh Henderson, Ognjen Stankovic, Conner Groce, Rich Brisco, Cody Head, Chabi Barre
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketAKR -12.5
ModelAKR -11.5
Model edgeTOL +1.0
W TOL covered
Total
Market168.5
Model169.9
Model edgeOver 1.4
W Over
Projected score
TOL 79.2 · AKR 90.7
TOL 81 · AKR 91
Win probability
AKR 84%
1st half
Spread
AKR -6.7
TOL -8.0
Total
79.5
90 points
Projected score
TOL 36.4 · AKR 43.1
TOL 49 · AKR 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenAKR -13.5
1 → TOL
CloseAKR -12.5
1 pt toward TOL
Total
Open169.5
▼ 1
Close168.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
TOL +625 · AKR -950
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened AKR -13.5 · closed AKR -12.5 · moved 1 toward TOLmodel AKR -11.5
model AKR -11.5
Opened 169.5 · closed 168.5 · moved 1 downmodel 170
model 170
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| AKR | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22
TOL 4–5 AKRAKR leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · AKR has won the last 3 meetings · TOL 5-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024-25 | TOL 90 vs AKR 100 | AKR -8.5 | AKR W |
| Mar 4, 2024-25 | AKR 96 @ TOL 87 | TOL +4.5 | AKR W |
| Jan 14, 2024-25 | TOL 78 @ AKR 85 | AKR -7.5 | TOL W |
| Feb 20, 2023-24 | AKR 64 @ TOL 72 | TOL -2.5 | TOL W |
| Feb 2, 2023-24 | TOL 70 @ AKR 77 | AKR -3.5 | AKR W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Toledo
18 games played
Straight up
9-9
50% wins
Against the spread
10-8
56% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-10
44% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USA | L 74-76 | -2.5 | L −4.5 | 150.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 8 | vs MRSH | L 73-85 | -2.5 | L −14.5 | 160.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 11 | @ WRST | W 81-71 | +5.5 | W +15.5 | 159.5 | U 152 |
| Nov 15 | vs DETM | W 90-83 | -10.5 | L −3.5 | 159.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | vs YSU | W 92-75 | -1.5 | W +15.5 | 160.5 | O 167 |
| Nov 24 | vs TROY | W 75-68 | +2.5 | W +9.5 | 159.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 26 | vs BEL | L 72-87 | +4.5 | L −10.5 | 163.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 6 | @ OAK | L 97-98 | +4.5 | W +3.5 | 166.5 | O 195 |
| Dec 13 | @ RMU | L 70-75 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 154.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | @ MSU | L 69-92 | +23.5 | W +0.5 | 150.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 30 | vs WMU | W 84-79 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 160.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 3 | @ CMU | W 78-75 | -7.5 | L −4.5 | 158.5 | U 153 |
| Jan 6 | @ NIU | W 75-61 | -7.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | U 136 |
| Jan 9 | vs M-OH | L 73-87 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 166.5 | U 160 |
| Jan 13 | vs OHIO | W 101-85 | -2.5 | W +13.5 | 161.5 | O 186 |
| Jan 16 | @ KENT | L 84-87 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 168.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 20 | @ MASS | L 82-84 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 166 |
| Jan 24 | vs BGSU | W 73-72 | +1.5 | W +2.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−4.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−14.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
+15.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
−3.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+15.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
+9.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−10.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+3.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−6.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+0.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
−5.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−4.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
+6.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−15.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+13.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+0.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
+2.5
covered 10didn’t cover 8avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSA
USAL 74-76
−0.5
8
vsMRSH
MRSHL 73-85
−2.5
11
@WRST
WRSTW 81-71
−7.5
15
vsDETM
DETMW 90-83
+13.5
19
vsYSU
YSUW 92-75
+6.5
24
vsTROY
TROYW 75-68
−16.5
26
vsBEL
BELL 72-87
−4.5
6
@OAK
OAKL 97-98
+28.5
13
@RMU
RMUL 70-75
−9.5
16
@MSU
MSUL 69-92
+10.5
30
vsWMU
WMUW 84-79
+2.5
3
@CMU
CMUW 78-75
−5.5
6
@NIU
NIUW 75-61
−25.5
9
vsM-OH
M-OHL 73-87
−6.5
13
vsOHIO
OHIOW 101-85
+24.5
16
@KENT
KENTL 84-87
+2.5
20
@MASS
MASSL 82-84
+1.5
24
vsBGSU
BGSUW 73-72
−10.5
over 8under 10avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Akron
18 games played
Straight up
14-4
78% wins
Against the spread
11-7
61% covers · avg +3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-8
56% overs · avg +5.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JMU | W 85-71 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 153.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 8 | vs PRIN | W 104-69 | -13.5 | W +21.5 | 156.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 16 | @ PUR | L 79-97 | +18.5 | W +0.5 | 163.5 | O 176 |
| Nov 21 | vs IONA | W 96-75 | -11.5 | W +9.5 | 173.5 | U 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs EVAN | W 97-59 | -11.5 | W +26.5 | 156.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs YALE | L 94-97 | -1.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 191 |
| Nov 29 | vs MILW | W 105-81 | -12.5 | W +11.5 | 166.5 | O 186 |
| Dec 3 | vs BUCK | W 97-77 | -23.5 | L −3.5 | 157.5 | O 174 |
| Dec 6 | @ TULN | W 88-71 | -6.5 | W +10.5 | 162.5 | U 159 |
| Dec 13 | vs MUR | L 100-115 | -4.5 | L −19.5 | 168.5 | O 215 |
| Dec 19 | vs EMU | W 93-72 | -15.5 | W +5.5 | 155.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 3 | @M-OH | L 73-76 | -4.5 | L −7.5 | 177.5 | U 149 |
| Jan 6 | vsCMU | W 82-69 | -23.5 | L −10.5 | 164.5 | U 151 |
| Jan 9 | @BGSU | W 77-67 | -4.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 13 | vs BALL | W 87-77 | -20.5 | L −10.5 | 152.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 17 | vsWMU | W 104-89 | -21.5 | L −6.5 | 163.5 | O 193 |
| Jan 20 | @ BUF | W 82-63 | -8.5 | W +10.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 23 | @OHIO | W 86-65 | -6.5 | W +14.5 | 167.5 | U 151 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJMU
JMUW 85-71
+5.5
8
vsPRIN
PRINW 104-69
+21.5
16
@PUR
PURL 79-97
+0.5
21
vsIONA
IONAW 96-75
+9.5
23
vsEVAN
EVANW 97-59
+26.5
24
vsYALE
YALEL 94-97
−4.5
29
vsMILW
MILWW 105-81
+11.5
3
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-77
−3.5
6
@TULN
TULNW 88-71
+10.5
13
vsMUR
MURL 100-115
−19.5
19
vsEMU
EMUW 93-72
+5.5
3
@M-OH
M-OHL 73-76
−7.5
6
vsCMU
CMUW 82-69
−10.5
9
@BGSU
BGSUW 77-67
+5.5
13
vsBALL
BALLW 87-77
−10.5
17
vsWMU
WMUW 104-89
−6.5
20
@BUF
BUFW 82-63
+10.5
23
@OHIO
OHIOW 86-65
+14.5
covered 11didn’t cover 7avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJMU
JMUW 85-71
+2.5
8
vsPRIN
PRINW 104-69
+16.5
16
@PUR
PURL 79-97
+12.5
21
vsIONA
IONAW 96-75
−2.5
23
vsEVAN
EVANW 97-59
−0.5
24
vsYALE
YALEL 94-97
+34.5
29
vsMILW
MILWW 105-81
+19.5
3
vsBUCK
BUCKW 97-77
+16.5
6
@TULN
TULNW 88-71
−3.5
13
vsMUR
MURL 100-115
+46.5
19
vsEMU
EMUW 93-72
+9.5
3
@M-OH
M-OHL 73-76
−28.5
6
vsCMU
CMUW 82-69
−13.5
9
@BGSU
BGSUW 77-67
−19.5
13
vsBALL
BALLW 87-77
+11.5
17
vsWMU
WMUW 104-89
+29.5
20
@BUF
BUFW 82-63
−21.5
23
@OHIO
OHIOW 86-65
−16.5
over 10under 8avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Toledo
9-9 overall · 5-3 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Bowling Green73–72
- L@ UMass82–84
- L@ Kent State84–87
- Wvs Ohio101–85
- Lvs Miami OH73–87
3 days since their last game.
Akron
14-4 overall · 7-1 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Ohio86–65
- W@ Buffalo82–63
- Wvs W Michigan104–89
- Wvs Ball State87–77
- W@ Bowling Green77–67
4 days since their last game.