Stroh Center · at Bowling Green · Conference game
Closing line
BGSU -7.5✓ BUF covered by 18.5
BGSU -7.5✓ BUF covered by 18.5Closing total150.5Over by 16.5
 BUF | This season | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| 11-7 | Record | 10-7 |
| 11-7 | ATS | 8-9 |
| 10-8 | O/U | 6-11 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BUF 72–80 BGSU · ✗ BGSU (77%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 39 | 50 | 89 |
| BGSU | 32 | 46 | 78 |
1st half: BUF 39, BGSU 32 (BUF by 7). The model had BGSU by 4.8 and a total of 71.3 (actual 71).
Team stats
| BUF | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-52 56% | Field goals | 31-62 50% |
| 14-26 54% | 3-pointers | 7-20 35% |
| 17-22 77% | Free throws | 9-15 60% |
| 30 6 off | Rebounds | 32 11 off |
| 16 | Assists | 14 |
| 5 | Steals | 4 |
| 2 | Blocks | 5 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 20 | Fast-break points | 20 |
Players
| BUF | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Sabol G | 37 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 7-13 | 5-10 |
| Angelo Brizzi G | 31 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| Noah Batchelor G | 30 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Daniel Freitag G | 29 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 4-9 | 2-5 |
| Tim Oboh F | 23 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Derrick Talton Jr. G | 24 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4-7 | 2-3 |
| Ezra McKenna F | 14 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Mikhali Pocknett F | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Aleksa Vlajic, Kyle Jones, Matas Buteliauskas, Evan Romano, Daniel Shao, Omar Migues-Hibeljic
| BGSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javontae Campbell G | 40 | 31 | 3 | 7 | 13-20 | 2-3 |
| Sam Towns F | 34 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 4-10 | 1-4 |
| Troy Glover II F | 29 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Javon Ruffin G | 25 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2-7 | 1-3 |
| Mayar Wol F | 24 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2-8 | 1-6 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Josiah Shackelford G | 24 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 4-8 | 1-1 |
| Justin Thomas G | 24 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2-4 | 1-3 |
Did not play: Camden Karel, Aiden Goins, Christian Dedivanaj, Makhi Leach, Jason Kimbrough, Alijah Adem, Preston Squire, Mohamed Maxamud, Jaxon Pardon, Greg Spurgin
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketBGSU -7.5
ModelBGSU -8.3
Model edgeBGSU +0.8
L BUF covered
Total
Market150.5
Model152.3
Model edgeOver 1.8
W Over
Projected score
BUF 72 · BGSU 80.3
BUF 89 · BGSU 78
Win probability
BGSU 77%
1st half
Spread
BGSU -4.8
BUF -7.0
Total
71.3
71 points
Projected score
BUF 33.2 · BGSU 38.1
BUF 39 · BGSU 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBGSU -7.5
no move
CloseBGSU -7.5
No change since the open
Total
Open149.5
▲ 1
Close150.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
BUF +295 · BGSU -375
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BGSU -7.5 · unchangedmodel BGSU -8.5
model BGSU -8.5
Opened 149.5 · closed 150.5 · moved 1 upmodel 152.5
model 152.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| BGSU | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22
BUF 3–3 BGSUSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · BGSU has won the last 3 meetings · BUF 3-3 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024-25 | BGSU 63 @ BUF 59 | BUF +1.5 | BGSU W |
| Jan 14, 2024-25 | BUF 61 @ BGSU 79 | BGSU -8.5 | BGSU W |
| Feb 6, 2023-24 | BUF 73 @ BGSU 87 | BGSU -12.5 | BGSU W |
| Jan 17, 2022-23 | BGSU 71 @ BUF 100 | BUF -6.5 | BUF W |
| Feb 15, 2021-22 | BUF 112 @ BGSU 85 | BGSU +5 | BUF W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Buffalo
18 games played
Straight up
11-7
61% wins
Against the spread
11-7
61% covers · avg +3.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-8
56% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs USM | W 85-79 | -3.5 | W +2.5 | 153.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 7 | vs GB | W 83-76 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Nov 11 | @ DEP | W 66-53 | +18.5 | W +31.5 | 153.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 18 | vs UVM | W 94-90 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 141.5 | O 184 |
| Nov 24 | vs VMI | W 78-70 | -5.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 26 | vs BUCK | W 73-71 | -4.5 | L −2.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 29 | @ CAN | W 71-53 | -9.5 | W +8.5 | 139.5 | U 124 |
| Dec 6 | vs SBU | L 69-77 | +5.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 146 |
| Dec 9 | @ UMBC | W 83-79 | -3.5 | W +0.5 | 145.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 14 | @ ECU | L 70-73 | +1.5 | L −1.5 | 146.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 20 | @ WMU | W 88-71 | -2.5 | W +14.5 | 150.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 31 | @ NIU | W 81-67 | -6.5 | W +7.5 | 152.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 3 | vs BALL | W 85-72 | -6.5 | W +6.5 | 145.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 10 | @ OHIO | L 80-91 | +4.5 | L −6.5 | 156.5 | O 171 |
| Jan 13 | vs KENT | L 81-87 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 165.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 17 | @ M-OH | L 102-105 | +10.5 | W +7.5 | 162.5 | O 207 |
| Jan 20 | vs AKR | L 63-82 | +8.5 | L −10.5 | 166.5 | U 145 |
| Jan 23 | vs MASS | L 67-68 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 159.5 | U 135 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+2.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+3.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
+31.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+5.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
+2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
+8.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
−2.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+0.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−1.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+14.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
+7.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+6.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
−6.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
−3.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+7.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−10.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−2.5
covered 11didn’t cover 7avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUSM
USMW 85-79
+10.5
7
vsGB
GBW 83-76
+11.5
11
@DEP
DEPW 66-53
−34.5
18
vsUVM
UVMW 94-90
+42.5
24
vsVMI
VMIW 78-70
−2.5
26
vsBUCK
BUCKW 73-71
−2.5
29
@CAN
CANW 71-53
−15.5
6
vsSBU
SBUL 69-77
+1.5
9
@UMBC
UMBCW 83-79
+16.5
14
@ECU
ECUL 70-73
−3.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 88-71
+8.5
31
@NIU
NIUW 81-67
−4.5
3
vsBALL
BALLW 85-72
+11.5
10
@OHIO
OHIOL 80-91
+14.5
13
vsKENT
KENTL 81-87
+2.5
17
@M-OH
M-OHL 102-105
+44.5
20
vsAKR
AKRL 63-82
−21.5
23
vsMASS
MASSL 67-68
−24.5
over 10under 8avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Bowling Green
17 games played
Straight up
10-7
59% wins
Against the spread
8-9
47% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-11
35% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs TXST | W 83-48 | -5.5 | W +29.5 | 146.5 | U 131 |
| Nov 9 | vs LEM | W 83-60 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 154.5 | U 143 |
| Nov 15 | @ DAV | L 87-91 | +4.5 | W +0.5 | 144.5 | O 178 |
| Nov 19 | vs W&M | L 74-82 | -8.5 | L −16.5 | 167.5 | U 156 |
| Nov 24 | vsBUCK | W 71-66 | -10.5 | L −5.5 | 144.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 26 | vsVMI | W 81-48 | -11.5 | W +21.5 | 148.5 | U 129 |
| Dec 1 | @ KSU | W 82-66 | +12.5 | W +28.5 | 159.5 | U 148 |
| Dec 6 | vs UVU | L 71-82 | +1.5 | L −9.5 | 144.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 16 | vs CHST | W 76-55 | -21.5 | L −0.5 | 148.5 | U 131 |
| Dec 20 | @OHIO | W 68-58 | -1.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 30 | vsM-OH | L 83-93 | -6.5 | L −16.5 | 150.5 | O 176 |
| Jan 3 | @MASS | W 101-100 | -1.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 6 | @KENT | L 93-96 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 155.5 | O 189 |
| Jan 9 | vsAKR | L 67-77 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 163.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 17 | vs EMU | W 85-79 | -11.5 | L −5.5 | 141.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 20 | @WMU | W 72-54 | -6.5 | W +11.5 | 152.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 24 | @ TOL | L 72-73 | -1.5 | L −2.5 | 155.5 | U 145 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsTXST
TXSTW 83-48
+29.5
9
vsLEM
LEMW 83-60
+11.5
15
@DAV
DAVL 87-91
+0.5
19
vsW&M
W&ML 74-82
−16.5
24
vsBUCK
BUCKW 71-66
−5.5
26
vsVMI
VMIW 81-48
+21.5
1
@KSU
KSUW 82-66
+28.5
6
vsUVU
UVUL 71-82
−9.5
16
vsCHST
CHSTW 76-55
−0.5
20
@OHIO
OHIOW 68-58
+8.5
30
vsM-OH
M-OHL 83-93
−16.5
3
@MASS
MASSW 101-100
−0.5
6
@KENT
KENTL 93-96
+0.5
9
vsAKR
AKRL 67-77
−5.5
17
vsEMU
EMUW 85-79
−5.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 72-54
+11.5
24
@TOL
TOLL 72-73
−2.5
covered 8didn’t cover 9avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsTXST
TXSTW 83-48
−15.5
9
vsLEM
LEMW 83-60
−11.5
15
@DAV
DAVL 87-91
+33.5
19
vsW&M
W&ML 74-82
−11.5
24
vsBUCK
BUCKW 71-66
−7.5
26
vsVMI
VMIW 81-48
−19.5
1
@KSU
KSUW 82-66
−11.5
6
vsUVU
UVUL 71-82
+8.5
16
vsCHST
CHSTW 76-55
−17.5
20
@OHIO
OHIOW 68-58
−27.5
30
vsM-OH
M-OHL 83-93
+25.5
3
@MASS
MASSW 101-100
+48.5
6
@KENT
KENTL 93-96
+33.5
9
vsAKR
AKRL 67-77
−19.5
17
vsEMU
EMUW 85-79
+22.5
20
@WMU
WMUW 72-54
−26.5
24
@TOL
TOLL 72-73
−10.5
over 6under 11avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Buffalo
11-7 overall · 3-5 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs UMass67–68
- Lvs Akron63–82
- L@ Miami OH102–105
- Lvs Kent State81–87
- L@ Ohio80–91
4 days since their last game.
Bowling Green
10-7 overall · 4-4 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Toledo72–73
- W@ W Michigan72–54
- Wvs E Michigan85–79
- Lvs Akron67–77
- L@ Kent State93–96
3 days since their last game.